China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Djsoke]

4 minutes ago, movieboner said:

My bold prediction for Endgame

5 day OW: $300 million

Total: $600 million

Maybe you've moved just a little bit past bold here

[peludo]

6 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I need data to extrapolate, as in PS.  Not sure what will happen.  Screens should increase by 20% but shows may not increase much per day vs IW, so $200m if it was a 3 day.  The 5 day throws everything off.  I assume 250m+(5day), but that's just an easy guess.

Big effect.  5-6 shows per day instead of 6-7.

I was wrong. Even more when I had asumed there is 22 minutes gap between IW and EG, when it really is 33.

 

We will finally see what is the limit of the markets for so long films, since it is the longest blockbuster since LOTR.

[KP1025]

The Human Comedy already down to 6.0. Rarely seen a new opener collapse so quickly on Maoyan. 

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

The Human Comedy already down to 6.0. Rarely seen a new opener collapse so quickly on Maoyan. 

Is Dumbo still 8.9?

[druv10]

18 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Is Dumbo still 8.9?

Yes, also it's number 1 so far today.

[POTUS 2020]

20 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was suspecting the latter. IMO first 5 days will be roughly double of (Tue + Wed) + (Fri + Sat + Sun) of Ultron IMO.

 

I.e. 

Wed ~ 2X Ultron Tue ~ ¥380mn

Thursday ~ 2X Ultron Wed ~ ¥250mn

 

Friday + Sat + Sun ~ 2X Ultron FSS ~ ¥1075mn

 

If there are midnight screenings, add another ¥70mn.

Good comparison.  Could be a bit higher when looking at show count.

AoU had 81k shows Tu-Fr, 83k on Sat

IW had 183k on Fr, 198k on Sat

I assume EG will have at least 183k shows with 20% more screens but less shows per day per screen than IW.

AoU had just an 8.6 rating and the Tues and wed dailies fell hard.

10% higher is quite possible. 1880m maybe? $280m

 

[RaidensSword]

Awesome news about the End Game release date. Really excited about the potential for this movie box office wise.

18 hours ago, LordNox said:

So Shazam will open to only 35M in China? So a 70M finish would be likely?

FWIW, I don't think you are far off, depends on the reception and competition but I still think it will be unlikely to reach 75M. 

Edited March 30, 2019 by RaidensSword
Added End game thoughts

[lorddemaxus]

52 minutes ago, RaidensSword said:

 

FWIW, I don't think you are far off, depends on the reception and competition but I still think it will be unlikely to reach 75M. 

If people like the movie, it is easily going past 80 million. All it needs is a 2x multiplier to reach 75 mil and if the movie is liked, it can easily get that number. And it is tracking more towards 45 mil, not 35.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

If people like the movie, it is easily going past 80 million. All it needs is a 2x multiplier to reach 75 mil and if the movie is liked, it can easily get that number. And it is tracking more towards 45 mil, not 35.

the range was 35-45

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the range was 35-45

He is DC fanboy. Anything against Shazam makes him furious.

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the range was 35-45

Not according to the people on the presales thread. Presales are along the lines of Thor Ragnarok and Justice League.

 

2 minutes ago, Matthew said:

He is DC fanboy. Anything against Shazam makes him furious.

Sure... You are just pissed that I said that Captain Marvel isn't hundred percent beating Wonder Woman. 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Matthew said:

He is DC fanboy. Anything against Shazam makes him furious.

the funny thing that people always do that when they have a range they pick always the low end or the high end  ,45 million is the range so its stupid to assume that it wont hit it

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not according to the people on the presales thread. Presales are along the lines of Thor Ragnarok and Justice League.

 

Sure... You are just pissed that I said that Captain Marvel isn't hundred percent beating Wonder Woman. 

and iw preasles also showed a  ow of 250 ,its china presales dont mean that much it could do higher or lower if the presales doesnt mean much in us then they mean less in china ,we will have to wait and see

Edited March 30, 2019 by john2000

[Matthew]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Not according to the people on the presales thread. Presales are along the lines of Thor Ragnarok and Justice League.

 

Sure... You are just pissed that I said that Captain Marvel isn't hundred percent beating Wonder Woman. 

Lol, if you have been following me. I am happy for both female Superheroes and not see that as competition. I want more diversity and that's it. 😊😊😊

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Matthew said:

Lol, if you have been following me.

 

I mean you were first talking about me in this thread. And like I said, I don't care which movie makes more than which. 

[pepsa]

13 minutes ago, john2000 said:

and iw preasles also showed a  ow of 250 ,its china presales dont mean that much it could do higher or lower if the presales doesnt mean much in us then they mean less in china ,we will have to wait and see

They mean a lot, last year when I was talking to people outside of the boxoffice forum most people though $130m OW some could see $150m but $200m? nah they called me nuts without even trying to look up data. , yeah IW was PS heavy but I mean at that point we knew big time that those predictions where so far off so I do think presales mean a lot. And if movies go against the normal trends like for example against the standard ps multi we are a bit off but mostly it's a good indicator to guess where it will end up. Also the second days is a lot more effected by wom than the US so that also something to consider. 

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, pepsa said:

They mean a lot, last year when I was talking to people outside of the boxoffice forum most people though $130m OW some could see $150m but $200m? nah they called me nuts without even trying to look up data. , yeah IW was PS heavy but I mean at that point we knew big time that those predictions where so far off so I do think presales mean a lot. And if movies go against the normal trends like for example against the standard ps multi we are a bit off but mostly it's a good indicator to guess where it will end up. Also the second days is a lot more effected by wom than the US so that also something to consider. 

agreed, we will see

Edited March 30, 2019 by john2000

[POTUS 2020]

23 minutes ago, john2000 said:

and iw preasles also showed a  ow of 250 ,its china presales dont mean that much it could do higher or lower if the presales doesnt mean much in us then they mean less in china ,we will have to wait and see

PS are a great indicator.  yes, i was thinking 250m but with PS at such a large number the metrics changed.  Several in the forum thought 200ish.  As @pepsa said we were closer than the "experts" that were calling for 130m.

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

They mean a lot, last year when I was talking to people outside of the boxoffice forum most people though $130m OW some could see $150m but $200m? nah they called me nuts without even trying to look up data. , yeah IW was PS heavy but I mean at that point we knew big time that those predictions where so far off so I do think presales mean a lot. And if movies go against the normal trends like for example against the standard ps multi we are a bit off but mostly it's a good indicator to guess where it will end up. Also the second days is a lot more effected by wom than the US so that also something to consider. 

 

[john2000]

Just now, POTUS 2020 said:

PS are a great indicator.  yes, i was thinking 250m but with PS at such a large number the metrics changed.  Several in the forum thought 200ish.  As @pepsa said we were closer than the "experts" that were calling for 130m.

 

oh of course  i didnt disagree with that i am just saying that we shouldnt be too excieted just yet and that applyies of course with every movie

[Premium George]

Easy $150m in china. Will get 9.2+ maoyan. $55m OW and then good legs.