Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

[fmpro]

Going with these as my final projections for the afternoon: Fri: $65m (incl. $15.6m previews)Sat: $54m (-17%)Sun: $40.0m (-26%)Wknd: $159.0m

Too low

[CoolioD1]

So what to expect for Avengers 2 then ?

 

250m OW, higher ?

Well people are gonna be saying that much the weekend bfore release and when it does less they'll be throwing themselves off buildings.

[John Marston]

You may think its a joke but 1st one had a shocking ow. The audience base who read books is growing. So if CF is accepted well and they can build a buzz around the 3rd one(plus make it 3D), I think OW record is not out of picture.I am not predicting it to do so at this point. But I will not rule it out either. So its ridiculous to think its a joke.

Considering the HG movies are all releasing g within a span Of three years, I can't see any of their opening weekends being radically different

[#ED]

Too low

 

Too low? I think that is the floor.

[Deep Wang]

I don't know what to make of this number yet.  First off, we don't have a 3D split estimate, so its hard to say what kind of attendance level it pulled, as well as giving an indicator for audience preference.  Further, the 9PM/Midnight issue jumbles things up a bit.  Will it follow the typical Marvel pattern, where midnights = 15% of OD?  If so, how do we account for that with the 9PM previews?  Will it follow Avengers' pattern instead?  Again, same issue with the previews.

 

The 3D share for previews isn't quite as important as it will be for the rest of the weekend.  Last night was basically the same as it was last year for The Avengers.  There were multiple shows of each format available and not enough upfront demand for all of it.  So 2D did better last night, just like it did last year. 

 

The real question is the demand today.  Starting at 7pm Friday last year and going all the way through Sunday night, we sold out every show we had, 2D and 3D.  If the demand is high enough, people will see it however they can.  That is going to be the difference between $150-160m and $160-170m

 

I think Disney might have killed their chances for a higher gross by having so many showtimes.  We won't have as many sellouts and that means less spillover and more people waiting for a 2D show.

 

Plus, I remember people asking about all the line we had and what movie it was for.  Sellouts increase awareness and demand because people see that and then they don't want to miss out on anything this big.

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

That is more likely. But Twilight did not show any growth between part 1 and 2 of finale. So if part 1 is 3d and CF is well received it can beat Avengers OW. I believe only HG movies have a chance to break midnight record of Potter but it wont ever be truly broken with this 9PM releases.

 

I don't think Twilight is a good barometer, though. It peaked with New Moon in terms of expanding general audience interest. Potter retained more popularity with that crowd, and I suspect the same will happen with THG.

[ecstasy]

I agree that the vast majority of the audience enjoyed it, but that's the thing.....yes, they have positive reactions, but they don't have raves. TA had "OMG, you have to see this movie, it's the best thing ever" type buzz, which obviously boosted opening weekend IM and legs.  IM3 buzz is more like "Yea, it's good." Not exactly gonna make people rush out this weekend. 

 

 

My point was that although it is divided there is still more that liked it that didn't. I've seen reactions that ranged from "Iron Man is shit don't waste your money" to "Omg I need to see IM again, I could watch it over and over"  and everything in between.

I would not expect it to duplicate the Avengers in enthusiasm. That's not needed for the opening weekend. All that's needed is for people to show up. And they will just because Tony Stark is one of the Avengers. That part is already done. 

[keysersoze123]

Considering the HG movies are all releasing g within a span Of three years, I can't see any of their opening weekends being radically different

 

We need CF to hit 180M+ in 2D and then next one can break OW record with just 3D. So it does not need a major admissions increase to break the record.

 

But there is no doubt the fan base is growing. It always plays both ways. Movie helped increase book popularity and vice versa. Unlike Twilight this one almost plays 4 Quad. So it has much higher ceiling.

[Lordmandeep]

About cf beating TA.... all o can say is tdkr...About Gatsby buzz is high but I have doubts about young people flooding to the film...They are interested but pay 10 BUCKS?..Still 40 million opening and it will be frontloaded..Personally GG is one of my favorite books but have 0 interest in seeing it as I know it will not be good with the people involved.

[grey ghost]

You may think its a joke but 1st one had a shocking ow. The audience base who read books is growing. So if CF is accepted well and they can build a buzz around the 3rd one(plus make it 3D), I think OW record is not out of picture.

 

I am not predicting it to do so at this point. But I will not rule it out either. So its ridiculous to think its a joke.

 

So you expect Avengers to stagnate in anticipation and support with no increase for Avenger's 2 OW but THG 3 OW will increase over 33% from THG1?

 

The latter is somewhat possible but the former is just silly.

Edited May 3, 2013 by grey ghost

[RichWS]

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Super super super early but source tells me #IronMan3 opening day incl THU night heading to "60 and change".

 

Has this been posted?

[Shawn Robbins]

Has this been posted?

 

Nope.

[Shawn Robbins]

Definitely too early, though.

[keysersoze123]

So you expect Avengers to stagnate in anticipation and support with no increase for Avenger's 2 OW but THG 3 will increase over 25% from THG1?

 

The latter is possible but the former is just silly.

 

Avengers played like a sequel of all marvel movies. HG is like the 1st one of the series. In that sense there is greater potential.

I would say 95% Avengers 2 will beat HG 3. Just saying that its not a lock that 2 Marvel movies will have 2 top OW after May 2015.

[RichWS]

Definitely too early, though.

 

Way too early.

[Heretic]

Stating the obvious.

[htall90]

I don't think Twilight is a good barometer, though. It peaked with New Moon in terms of expanding general audience interest. Potter retained more popularity with that crowd, and I suspect the same will happen with THG.

Twilight suffered from so much bad press from large sections of the media and society that it lost some audience also movies are truly dire. Hunger games is huge but can't see it breaking TA OW by the final film it's not a cultural event like TA is. Only films with a chance IMO is TA 2 and SW7 or one of the sequels.

[grim22]

Has this been posted?

 

I think this is the "most likely to be completely wrong" early projection

[Orestes]

Way too early.

 

Yep, and all east coast numbers at this point. Wasn't until the west coast started coming in for Avengers that numbers started skyrocketing.

Edited May 3, 2013 by Orestes

[Lordmandeep]

So 60 million is the floor