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Weekend Estimate #s FF6: 34.5 NYSM 27.8 AE: 27.3 TH3: 15.9

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F&F 6 is the exception, not the rule. That series is just too fucking fun to garner a reaction like that. TASM doesn't have that going for it.

 

TASM was the third biggest summer film of 2012. Not too shabby.

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i want Jupiter Ascending and GOTG to be next summer's big break-outs. I also wonder if 21 Jump Street 2 could go for $200m. I have trouble getting Rush Hour 2 out of my head as an argument in favor of that happening. 

 

Re: The Heat, I don't think $150m is a risky proposition at all after Bridesmaids and Identity Thief which grossed $135m in February. I predicted 39/160 for BSG and I stand by that prediction.

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Another thing about Fast and Furious is that if Fast 7 had simply just been announced in the trades, it's more likely to have gotten the "ugh, another one?" reaction. But because of that credits scene that audiences have went crazy over, they have a legitimate reason to wanna check it out.

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Once you get into Part 4s, the interest dies down and audience is ready to move on (with rare exceptions). Transformers 4 is going to offer more of the same (like it always has, to be fair) except with Wahlberg instead of Shia. But is that enough to keep the domestic gross at over $300M? I don't think so.

 

Some of us here are old enough to remember the Godzilla hype circa 1997. Few have trully matched that. And yet it disappointed when it opened. Seems like WB/Legendary banking on the masses wanting more giant monster mayham post Pacific Rim. A flawed strategy IMO.

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes feels like an unnecessary sequel to a surprise popular hit. But just because the originating film won people over (Possibly due to lowered expectations), doesn't mean they want more.

 

My gut says Jupiter Ascending and Hercules are going to be big surprises.

 

If the Amazing Spider-Man sequel wasn't opening the summer, not sure it would look so strong.

 

Sure the reboot did better business than most of us here expected. But it's still the lowest-grossing Spder-Man movie, divided the fanbase and didn't exactly have general public begging for "MORE! MORE!! MOOOOOORE!!!" like they did exiting the first two Raimi films (or The Dark Knight Trilogy, Iron Man and The Avengers). This one is going to depend on how they sell the villains and what not. It'll make bank but... will it match Amazing Spider-Man stateside? Very unsure.

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Another thing about Fast and Furious is that if Fast 7 had simply just been announced in the trades, it's more likely to have gotten the "ugh, another one?" reaction. But because of that credits scene that audiences have went crazy over, they have a legitimate reason to wanna check it out.

Agreed. It stirred up big time interest in having another one so soon

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How's my man Franco?

He gets some great moments- all six guys do- but the MVP is McBride. There's a shouting match he has with Franco that will be one of the year's funniest scenes.
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If the Amazing Spider-Man sequel wasn't opening the summer, not sure it would look so strong.

 

Sure the reboot did better business than most of us here expected. But it's still the lowest-grossing Spder-Man movie, divided the fanbase and didn't exactly have general public begging for "MORE! MORE!! MOOOOOORE!!!" like they did exiting the first two Raimi films (or The Dark Knight Trilogy, Iron Man and The Avengers). This one is going to depend on how they sell the villains and what not. It'll make bank but... will it match Amazing Spider-Man stateside? Very unsure.

 

 

 

It has potential too increase. People who act like it is a guaranteed failure are completely wrong. They are letting their own dislike of the film cloud judgment and act as if everyone felt the same way

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Another thing about Fast and Furious is that if Fast 7 had simply just been announced in the trades, it's more likely to have gotten the "ugh, another one?" reaction. But because of that credits scene that audiences have went crazy over, they have a legitimate reason to wanna check it out.

 

The FF series is unlike any other series except for Bond.  They have found ways to keep it fresh and have even changed the dynamic of the series from straight street racing to heists and government missions and such.  It's a brilliant evolution and people have responded.  Getting Statham for the next one will keep it fresh and it will bring most back for a 7th.  Thank Stallone for this.  IMO, his idea to do an Expendables film has really had an impact on a lot of casting for other films.

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If the Amazing Spider-Man sequel wasn't opening the summer, not sure it would look so strong.

 

Sure the reboot did better business than most of us here expected. But it's still the lowest-grossing Spder-Man movie, divided the fanbase and didn't exactly have general public begging for "MORE! MORE!! MOOOOOORE!!!" like they did exiting the first two Raimi films (or The Dark Knight Trilogy, Iron Man and The Avengers). This one is going to depend on how they sell the villains and what not. It'll make bank but... will it match Amazing Spider-Man stateside? Very unsure.

 

Also, we have villains in TASM2 that seem too obscure, even if one is played by Jamie Foxx.

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The one thing that Amazing Spider Man has going for it is that- and I will take this opinion to my box office grave- Jamie Foxx is the most criminally underrated box office star working right now. Dude is way bigger than most want to give him credit for, especially in the wake of Django. He's a triple threat movie/music/comedy star that has a huge African American and huge young person fanbase. Tons of people saw Django just for him, just like people saw it just for Leo, and he gets as big a reaction as Tatum does in the WHD trailers, if not more. Coming off Django and WHD, he'll help out TASM quite a bit, and maybe help it break even with the first. 

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Also, we have villains in TASM2 that seem too obscure, even if one is played by Jamie Foxx.

 

Not unlike Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

Characters nobody knows. So how do you overcome that? Simple. Cast name actors.

Edited by filmnerdjamie
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Transformers 4 is a safe bet to win next summer, honestly. Wahlberg will re ignite alot of interest in the franchise, and I expect pretty good WOM and better critical reception.

its not ...

 

that's what peopel said about every TF movie ...

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its not ...

 

that's what peopel said about every TF movie ...

 

I, for one, hope it does. Would be hilarious kind of if Bay-related films were the top two films of the summer. Fox and Peltz hottie power to the rescue!!!!

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