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War For The Planet Of The Apes | July 14, 2017 | First Trailer on Page 18

By Neo, in Box Office Discussion

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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http://deadline.com/2017/07/war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-forecast-sumer-franchise-fatigue-1202123662/

 

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On tracking, Apes is expected to log a three-day in the high $50M range, potentially cracking $60M, however, rival distribution chiefs are quite bullish that the film could blow those expectations away with a domestic opening between $70M-$80M. Their fervor is spurred by War‘s early reviews which hit Rotten Tomatoes at 94% fresh. Should War open to $72.6M-plus, which was the domestic debut for its previous 2014 installment Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, it would rep the series best opening ever. Rise of the Planet of the Apes opened to $54.8M six years ago, and it’s quite conceivable that War can beat that figure....

 

Statistically speaking, a threequel logging the best opening out of a series’ first three titles isn’t out of the ordinary, and if you look around there have been a number of titles which have accomplished just that, i.e. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban ($93.7M), Iron Man 3 ($174.1M), Captain America: Civil War ($179.1M), and the older skewing guy title (which is more of a comp for Apes, Dawn drew 58% men, 55% over  25), The Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3M). Should War‘s Rotten Tomatoes rating maintain its high level, it will outstrip that of Rise of the Planet of the Apes (81% certified) and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (90% certified fresh).

 

But herein lies the sobering reality: It’s been a bad time for non-superhero sequels at the B.O. Despite Fox’s Alien: Covenant notching a Rotten Tomatoes of 71% fresh, which wasn’t that far from its predecessor Prometheus, it didn’t send a stampede into auditoriums and the Ridley Scott-directed title missed its $40M-plus opening with a $36M three-day. While great Rotten Tomatoes scores are necessary for any tentpole to succeed at the B.O, here was a glaring example in Alien: Covenant where great reviews didn’t impact tickets sales for the better. “The marketplace we are in does not support a $70M opening,” countered one tracker to the looming War fever...

 

The difference? War has better reviews than all the titles mentioned above. In addition, many are already commenting on the power of War‘s legs. ...

 

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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If War of Apes does 73-74 ow and follows it up with a 52-53% drop in the 2nd weekend, then the 2nd weekend will be 34.3-35.5.

Probably not enough to challenge Dunkirk's ow for #1 weekend but if it can do 76-77 ow and follow up with a low 50s drop, things will get interesting.

Gut says it will open lower though. Hoping it at least manages mid-high 60s.

 

Edited by a2knet
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marveldcfox Box Office Gold

marveldcfox

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23 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Alien Covenant is a bad comparison.

 

Prometheus wasn't a fan favorite like Dawn, AC didn't get rave reviews, and AC was the opposite of a crowd pleaser.

 

Bourne Ultimatum is the best comp that I can think of for the moment.

 

Apes 3 is most likely an amazing movie just like Dawn and Rise, but it isn't exactly a crowd pleaser type movie. These movies are more of a character study/drama with some set pieces and amazing CGI/moments. Not exactly the Marvel boom boom ha ha ha type movie.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

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This is what I see happening right now:

 

Jul 14: 60M (25.2M weekdays, 85.2M Total)

Jul 21: 27M (11.3M weekdays, 123.5M Total)

Jul 28: 13.5M (5.6M weekdays, 142.6M Total)

Aug 4: 6.7M (2.8M weekdays, 152.1M Total)

Aug 11: 3.4M (1.3M weekdays, 156.8M Total)

Aug 18: 1.7M (600k weekdays, 159.1M Total)

 

Final Total: 162M (2.7x)

 

Dawn pretty much dropped 50% every weekend, so I don't see that changing here. If anything, it'd get worse.

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junkshop36 Blockbuster

junkshop36

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1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

I can't think of many trilogies where I love every movie.

 

Back to the Future

Star Wars OT

Indiana Jones

 

And more recently...

 

Captain America

 

It would be incredible if I could add another trilogy on the 14th.

 

For me, personally, I would add Toy Story 1-3 and LOTR. 

 

War looks great! Can't wait to see it. 

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SLAM! Summer Tentpole

SLAM!

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10 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Is this supposed to be the final one?? Cause on the RT description is says "to conclude this rebooted trilogy on a powerful note" but I could've sworn they said they were making more...

 

They said that this is the last one for Ceaser's story, but they aren't ruling out future films in the Planet of the Apes franchise as a whole.

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marveldcfox Box Office Gold

marveldcfox

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19 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

surprised this is tracking is so low, this isn't like last year's threequel Star Trek Beyond which had terrible marketing and had good but not great reviews

what?Beyond has 84% on RT. That's great.

 

This has excellent RT%.

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marveldcfox Box Office Gold

marveldcfox

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15 hours ago, Killimano3 said:

Is this supposed to be the final one?? Cause on the RT description is says "to conclude this rebooted trilogy on a powerful note" but I could've sworn they said they were making more...

last one of the current trilogy. 

 

There might be future Apes movies with a big jump in timeline. 50-100 years...maybe closer to the original trilogy. Basically, Caeser's story is done. No more Caeser in future Apes movies.

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bcf26 Box Office Gold

bcf26

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16 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

last one of the current trilogy. 

 

There might be future Apes movies with a big jump in timeline. 50-100 years...maybe closer to the original trilogy. Basically, Caeser's story is done. No more Caeser in future Apes movies.

 

RIP CAESAR

:sadben:

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Valonqar Global Phenomenon

Valonqar

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, bcf26 said:

 

RIP CAESAR

:sadben:

 

Until War makes more money than Dawn. You know the drill. They say this is the last...and then make more. Once upon a time, POTC:AWE was totally 100% last, we swear! :lol:

 

Caesar is super popular. So...

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antovolk Blockbuster

antovolk

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The streak of an incredible July continues.
Watched Dawn for the first time the other day and what a leap that was from Rise. Then this is another leap forward...bleak, but so moving and affecting. Reeves over these two films has been so focused on the body language, the actions, the gestures - speaks so so much louder than any dialogue. Some moments absolutely eye watering. Serkis seriously deserves recognition for this. Story is surprisingly subversive (the less said the better), and a very poignant conclusion to what's definitely up there with the best trilogies of the century so far.
9/10

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Kvikk Lunsj Global Phenomenon

Kvikk Lunsj

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6 minutes ago, antovolk said:

The streak of an incredible July continues.
Watched Dawn for the first time the other day and what a leap that was from Rise. Then this is another leap forward...bleak, but so moving and affecting. Reeves over these two films has been so focused on the body language, the actions, the gestures - speaks so so much louder than any dialogue. Some moments absolutely eye watering. Serkis seriously deserves recognition for this. Story is surprisingly subversive (the less said the better), and a very poignant conclusion to what's definitely up there with the best trilogies of the century so far.
9/10

Nice to hear and when do you see Dunkirk?

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