Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[hw64]

We'll be back to proper midnights by 2025.

[Sophie]

Am I the only one noticing that Box Office Pro has not released their prediction for Avatar? That's very odd, because they're supposed to release every Friday around noon eastern time. 

[raegr]

2 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Am I the only one noticing that Box Office Pro has not released their prediction for Avatar? That's very odd, because they're supposed to release every Friday around noon eastern time. 

They did. I think their range was 130M to 175M, which to me seems pretty accurate. I think 135Mish and it will leg it out to 700M

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Am I the only one noticing that Box Office Pro has not released their prediction for Avatar? That's very odd, because they're supposed to release every Friday around noon eastern time. 

 

They did release the long-range forecast but deleted it for some reason. I'll be back up eventually. 
 

 

[SnokesLegs]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Fandango doesn't include Preview Night (or indeed any sort of Early Access) as Release Day.  So, the film technically releases in the states and Canada on Dec 16, but it has previews on the 15th.

 

Sooner or later this is gonna break though as "preview night" gets pushed further and further into the day.  We're not that far off from Noon/1pm previews. 

 

Might as well just say films release on Thursdays, except...

 

...

 

Except then they'll ramp up "early access" showings on either Tues or Weds and start the whole ball of wax rolling again.

America should just copy the UK and go for 4 days of previews starting on Monday at 8pm that magically count as the “opening weekend” like we did with Spectre, the Endgame OW record would be demolished.

[marveldcfox]

Everyone is assuming this will get great reviews, but let's not be so confident. Anything can happen. James Cameron has made so many statements in the last 13 years against certain things that critics are waiting to do some damage if they leve unimpressed after watching the movie. 

[ImNotExcited]

I'm upping the box office to 2billies domestic off the cute factor.

[Sophie]

2 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

They did release the long-range forecast but deleted it for some reason. I'll be back up eventually. 
 

 

 

The fact that it's just "475M+", instead of something like "475-525M", is really weird. I don't like the former because the "+" is so vague. Does that mean that they think $470M is just implausible? Do they think that $470M is less likely than $570M? Less likely than $670M? $770M? 

 

A prediction with just a lower range, and no over-under point, is useless. 

[DC Rich]

2 minutes ago, Sophie said:

 

The fact that it's just "475M+", instead of something like "475-525M", is really weird. I don't like the former because the "+" is so vague. Does that mean that they think $470M is just implausible? Do they think that $470M is less likely than $570M? Less likely than $670M? $770M? 

 

A prediction with just a lower range, and no over-under point, is useless. 

 

I believe the original article had the range at 470m to 720m for a total but it's been removed from the website.

[Sophie]

11 minutes ago, DC Rich said:

 

I believe the original article had the range at 470m to 720m for a total but it's been removed from the website.

Yes, I found another post referencing it. Basically it looks like $155M opening, 3.85x legs and a ~600M total. 

 

Sounds pretty reasonable. What would the dom/os split look like? Back before COVID, I would have assumed at least lik 33/67, but now it seems like that's a fairly rare split. 

[DC Rich]

4 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Yes, I found another post referencing it. Basically it looks like $155M opening, 3.85x legs and a ~600M total. 

 

Sounds pretty reasonable. What would the dom/os split look like? Back before COVID, I would have assumed at least lik 33/67, but now it seems like that's a fairly rare split. 

 

There are others on here that can give a better idea of the dom/os split but I think it will be way bigger OS even without China.  

[Nero]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

We'll be back to proper midnights by 2025.

At that point weekend will be counted as Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday 😂😂

[Sophie]

One thing that is annoying about Avatar is that if it ends up with $400M there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along" and if it ends up at like $900M, there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along"

[thajdikt]

4 minutes ago, Sophie said:

One thing that is annoying about Avatar is that if it ends up with $400M there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along" and if it ends up at like $900M, there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along"

I am one of them. I have been giving so much shit from my fellow Marvel fans on twitter about this movie because they all think it will underperform and I will be the first guy with no shame to say "I told you so" to them if it does well.

[WittyUsername]

For my money, all I can say is that I think people should underestimate James Cameron at their own risk. Titanic and Avatar were expected to flop, and we all know how that turned out. I’m not saying this is guaranteed to beat Top Gun domestically, but if nothing else, I think we should be a little bolder than the $475 prediction. 

[JustLurking]

20 minutes ago, Sophie said:

One thing that is annoying about Avatar is that if it ends up with $400M there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along" and if it ends up at like $900M, there will be people saying "see, I told you so all along"

That's the best part though?

[raegr]

When are they gonna release the first Avatar in 4k? Also, is the OG blu ray HFR too?

[Borobudur]

7 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Why do the say its being released on the 16th...that's just the 15th. box office is weird sometimes.

 

The final stretch of marketing needs to empathise the 3D will be incredible, or the opening weekend might take a hit (2nd won't as WOM will let everyone know the 3D is good)

I hope the preview only list 3D showtime, just like the first one. That allow WOM around 3D spread faster.

 

9 hours ago, NCsoft said:

 

Assuming they are going to be doing screening for critics and other award bodies to get into nominations, I think we can probably expect to read first reactions on social media in early Dec, very close now!

 

So now we have premiere london, japan, LA and new zealand? India should be in the mix too!

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I hope the preview only list 3D showtime, just like the first one. That allow WOM around 3D spread faster.

 

It's about 3:1 ratio locally, with nearly all PLF showings being 3D. Not much of a sample size though as only one Major Theater Chain has their initial showtimes up.

 

Besides, having 3D only on preview night would be... Well it might discourage folks who really dislike 3D/don't like being forced to view something in 3D and in turn depress the preview number.

[Borobudur]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

It's about 3:1 ratio locally, with nearly all PLF showings being 3D. Not much of a sample size though as only one Major Theater Chain has their initial showtimes up.

 

Besides, having 3D only on preview night would be... Well it might discourage folks who really dislike 3D/don't like being forced to view something in 3D and in turn depress the preview number.

I mean, if people really dislike 3D they can just wait for actual opening weekend itself. 3D-only preview will only reinforce Avatar 2 as the biggest 3D event in a decade. I mean, I believe all premiere showing will be in 3D too for critics. Also, A2 is frame by frame crafted in 3D, not watching in 3D is like watching TLK or Frozen but without the songs version. Something I would discourage people from doing it.