Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[LPLC]

2 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

You can blame Tom Hardy for that. 

We must not blame Tom Hardy, if he had said something bad for example about France, we would never have canceled the film here. It's freedom of expression but they don't have that in China.

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

The first Venom was released there

 

The statements from TH that prevented Venom 2 from getting a release were not uncovered until 2021 apparently. Google Tom Hardy statement on China. 

[Deuce66]

2 hours ago, LPLC said:

We must not blame Tom Hardy, if he had said something bad for example about France, we would never have canceled the film here. It's freedom of expression but they don't have that in China.

 

I agree but he's still the reason apparently for the non-release of Venom 2. 

 

Variety article

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/venom-let-there-be-carnage-china-trouble-1235121528/

 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

Another thing is that China seems to have reverence/respect for people who have come from working class backgrounds and made themselves the top of their respective fields (like Jim). Unlike someone like Tom Hardy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth (privately educated etc.)

Edited January 16, 2022 by JamesCameronScholar
Typo

[IronJimbo]

I remember back in 2016 or whatever I was predicting $3b WW easy, people would call me crazy back then and ridiculous. I'm relatively sure that wihout COVID & the Pandemic that most would be predicitng over 3 billies WW as of now.

It's sad really what the Pandemic has done however right movie (A2) at the right time can make all the difference in the world. If China allows a full run of A2 at full capcity for over a month, thats $1.5b right there.

 

 

[Valonqar]

NWH shows that pandemic means nothing if people really want to see something. It had a terrific hook and it was a great movie so it's going to make over 1.7M w/o China (would be over 2B with it). So assuming Jimbo has the right hook and movie is really great, the sky's the limit even with variants.

[IronJimbo]

22 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

NWH shows that pandemic means nothing if people really want to see something. It had a terrific hook and it was a great movie so it's going to make over 1.7M w/o China (would be over 2B with it). So assuming Jimbo has the right hook and movie is really great, the sky's the limit even with variants.

NWH $2b lmao?

 

A2 gonna make 4 billie EASY

[TomCruiseTop]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

NWH $2b lmao?

 

A2 gonna make 4 billie EASY

IronJimbo, good to see you back, can you run the numbers on the growth of IMAX + China and how much A2 will make?

[Maggie]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I agree but he's still the reason apparently for the non-release of Venom 2. 

 

Variety article

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/venom-let-there-be-carnage-china-trouble-1235121528/

 

 

I doubt it. Spidey is not releasing either. Actually, most Hollywood big movies are not releasing

[TomCruiseTop]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I doubt it. Spidey is not releasing either. Actually, most Hollywood big movies are not releasing

Is SM not releasing confirmed?

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is SM not releasing confirmed?

It has no release date and in two weeks Chinese New year starts and Hollywood films are banned then

[IronJimbo]

20 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

IronJimbo, good to see you back, can you run the numbers on the growth of IMAX + China and how much A2 will make?

If we use the polynomial curve of Jim films plotting gross against year that before we factor in other things, Avatar 2 will make $4.2b. Now if we take China's percentage gross of the first film which was 7.5%, now that percentage of the poly predicted A2 scoring we get $315m. If we take this $315m and multiple it by market growth of china from 2010 jan to now then this number becomes we get approxemitmately $2.5b from China. Ok great, now if we take the difference and add it back to the $4.2b we get $6.4b.

 

Applying the same calculations to all the other regions and globally we go up to 11.53 billies.

 

The method is in my opinion sound but I think that it could pontentially be completely wrong. The problem is the Jim factor and magic, for this I'll apply the 11.5b as the floor and say the true range is 11.5b to 16b due to Jim magic.

[TomCruiseTop]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

If we use the polynomial curve of Jim films plotting gross against year that before we factor in other things, Avatar 2 will make $4.2b. Now if we take China's percentage gross of the first film which was 7.5%, now that percentage of the poly predicted A2 scoring we get $315m. If we take this $315m and multiple it by market growth of china from 2010 jan to now then this number becomes we get approxemitmately $2.5b from China. Ok great, now if we take the difference and add it back to the $4.2b we get $6.4b.

 

Applying the same calculations to all the other regions and globally we go up to 11.53 billies.

 

The method is in my opinion sound but I think that it could pontentially be completely wrong. The problem is the Jim factor and magic, for this I'll apply the 11.5b as the floor and say the true range is 11.5b to 16b due to Jim magic.

Jim magic is at least a 2x multiplier.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Jim magic is at least a 2x multiplier.

some of the Jim magic is already factored into the polynomial calculation of Jim films over time, sadly.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

...I'll apply the 11.5b as the floor and say the true range is 11.5b to 16b due to Jim magic.

 

[TomCruiseTop]

16 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

It's not far outside the max range I predicted if things really went to the moon.

[Elessar]

These discussions are getting exhausting. It's like we are going in circles. It's about time we see some actual news here...

[Maggie]

This thread has the potential to be the funniest on BOT.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

The good news either way is, answers will be here by this time next year. No more years of speculating and back-n-forth. 

[The GOAT]

Would be funny if it reached 4 billion or less than 1 billy