Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[WorkingonaName]

I dont think putting A2 on D+ would harm it much.

[Tarintino]

20 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

I dont think putting A2 on D+ would harm it much.

It would after a month. Its box office suicide. Avatar is not the sort of movie to watch at home its a theatre movie

[SchumacherFTW]

43 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

It would after a month. Its box office suicide. Avatar is not the sort of movie to watch at home its a theatre movie

I'm in for that kind of chaos haha, I'll have watched it in a theater by then anyway

[JustLurking]

13 hours ago, excel1 said:

Still have no idea how this is going to go. It will be big but the range is huge.

This is what makes it the most interesting project from a BO standpoint. Easily the most unpredictable film on the horizon, you have people acting like it's already broken the all-time record and people confident it'll disappoint massively.

[Tarintino]

21 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I'm in for that kind of chaos haha, I'll have watched it in a theater by then anyway

Some people just want to watch the world burn

[AniNate]

I feel like anyone who might join Disney+ for Avatar already has for their Star Wars properties. I don't think it would be that big a bump, most of the money here really will be in theatrical exhibition.

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

This is what makes it the most interesting project from a BO standpoint. Easily the most unpredictable film on the horizon, you have people acting like it's already broken the all-time record and people confident it'll disappoint massively.

 

Yes but "disappoint massively" has also a very wide range depending on who you ask here^^. For example, i think my (current, with no trailer) prediction of 1,7 - 1,9B for this worldwide would for many people already be an extreme, diabolical disaster of hellish proportions.

[marveldcfox]

This will make money, but it won't match Avatar. It will be a solid HIT if not uber blockbuster or ATBB.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

i think my (current, with no trailer) prediction of 1,7 - 1,9B for this worldwide [...]

 

Could you break that down into domestic, China and overseas-C grosses?

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Could you break that down into domestic, China and overseas-C grosses?

 

Sure.

 

DOM, i see up to 650M with legs of approx. x4 coming of a 160M OW. While i dont see this as a fanrush-like movie that will explode on OW, it still should be sizable. Legs then ofc depend on reception but i will not be the fool to bet against Cameron delivering a good movie. The much shorter legs compared to the first one are because of 1) its a sequel and 2) the much bigger OW.

 

China is extremely hard to predict for me so ill go with a rather conservative 300 - 400M there. Reasoning is that 1) we dont know how the Covid situation will be there in the winter and 2) the potential for Avatar is gigantic since the first one blew up there but the question remains if the Chinese are willing to go out in droves for the sequel as well. Before we get for example a trailer reception from China, thats a very open question.

 

OS-C is ofc a giant wildcard as well. Europe went crazy for the first one but the market has shrunken a lot since then. In the same time, Asia and Latin America as marketplaces had a huge growth. Avatar also released with extremely advantegous exchange rates as well as benefitting from the early 3D boom. Both of those factors wont play the same role for the sequel anymore. Therefore and with the overall central question remaining if the people who saw the original are truly willing to come back for Avatar 2, an OS-C number in the ballpark of 650-950M sounds good to me. All in all, this equates to a range of 1,7-1,9B worldwide.

 

This is my personal opinion, but Avatar was truly an event and a must-see movie back in 2009/10. This one is "just" the sequel to that that comes out 13 years later.

 

Note: This is my prediction without any footage. As with other films, a trailer can help tremendeously with judging a movies potential and appeal. Therefore, i see the range ive given as a conservative baseline.

[Tarintino]

Avatar making just 400m in China is ridiculous should it get released. Thats just double the first movie despite a 20x market expanision. It will make more in China than any Marvel movie thats come before it

[Brainbug]

12 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

Avatar making just 400m in China is ridiculous should it get released. Thats just double the first movie despite a 20x market expanision. It will make more in China than any Marvel movie thats come before it

 

I dont say that thats impossible/not happening. But no prediction is 100% certain. Maybe Avatar crosses 800M in China but i personally dont see that happening right now.

[Tarintino]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

I dont say that thats impossible/not happening. But no prediction is 100% certain. Maybe Avatar crosses 800M in China but i personally dont see that happening right now.

I guess Covid makes things in China unpredictable 

[hw64]

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Sure.

 

Thanks. I disagree with you on a lot of fronts, but I appreciate you taking the time to elaborate on your predictions. I do want to pick up on a few points:

 

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

China is extremely hard to predict for me so ill go with a rather conservative 300 - 400M there. Reasoning is that 1) we dont know how the Covid situation will be there in the winter and 2) the potential for Avatar is gigantic since the first one blew up there but the question remains if the Chinese are willing to go out in droves for the sequel as well. Before we get for example a trailer reception from China, thats a very open question.

 

I strongly disagree on this — all signs point to Avatar 2 being a very big success in China. A rush-job re-release of Avatar which was approved by the film board and offered up for presales only 3 or 4 days prior to its release date managed to make over $57m in China last year. Chinese socials show very good signs. Yes, there should be some mild concerns about the COVID situation in China in December, and about how the administration might limit Avatar 2's release, but even so, I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where Avatar 2 ends up on the same level of success in China as a film like Aquaman.

 

2 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

OS-C is ofc a giant wildcard as well. Europe went crazy for the first one but the market has shrunken a lot since then. In the same time, Asia and Latin America as marketplaces had a huge growth. Avatar also released with extremely advantegous exchange rates as well as benefitting from the early 3D boom. Both of those factors wont play the same role for the sequel anymore. Therefore and with the overall central question remaining if the people who saw the original are truly willing to come back for Avatar 2, an OS-C number in the ballpark of 650-950M sounds good to me. All in all, this equates to a range of 1,7-1,9B worldwide.

 

 

On the contrary, Europe as a market has grown overall since 2009, not shrunk — as the above graph shows, European cinematic attendance hit a ~25-year peak in 2019. Very slight declines in admissions in the mature European markets (the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) have been offset by significant growth in most Central and Eastern European markets. Of course, European cinema has taken a hit due to COVID, just like every other market, but I don't see any indication or reason to believe that European cinema won't bounce back, or isn't bouncing back, to the same extent as domestic cinema.

 

The exchange rates differences are definitely of note, but if you adjust Avatar to Endgame's dollar average ticket price in every overseas market, Avatar's overseas gross adjusts down by around $325-$350m. Adjust Avatar to late 2021/early 2022 ticket prices rather than pre-pandemic mid-2019 ticket prices, and that difference drops significantly; adjust it to whatever Avatar 2's average ticket prices are going to be in late 2022, and I daresay that the exchange rate differences will be almost entirely nullified by the ticket price increases. That's not even touching the huge market growth factor, which affects near-every overseas market outside of Western Europe, Japan and Australia.

 

Being rough, let's say that Avatar's $1.8b OS-C adjusts to around $1.6b with Avatar 2 average ticket prices and exchange rates — that's taking out Russia's $116m entirely (from which a huge portion of the exchange rate reduction arises in the first place), and then assuming that the exchange rate reductions, offset partially by the ticket price increases, reduce Avatar's OS-C gross by a further ~$84m (this is conservative to say the least). So you've got a $650-$950m Avatar 2 OS-C gross on one hand, and a $1.6b Avatar OS-C gross on the other hand, adjusted to the same exchange rates and ticket prices as Avatar 2 but without taking into account any market expansion whatsoever.

 

My ultimate point is that I would simply find it extremely hard to see why Avatar 2, in a heavily expanded overseas market, would drop 40%+ on the low end, and 60% on the high end, from Avatar. That's the equivalent of something like a 50% at best/70% at worst drop for Avatar 2 from Avatar, properly adjusting Avatar's OS-C gross for market growth.

Edited April 11, 2022 by hw64

[Deuce66]

Looking at the three main box office revenue streams (Domestic/International/China) what would be the top $$ end number if Avatar II actually broke all three records? 

 

China: the covid situation is far from settled however if we assume a best case scenario for A2. 

The Battle of Lake Changjin (2021) : $899.4 million

Top grossing American movie of all-time in China is Avengers Endgame (2019) $629.1 million

#2 The Fate of the Furious (2017) $392.8 million

 

Domestic:

Star Wars 7 - The Force Awakens (2015) $936.7 million

Avengers Endgame (2019) $858.3

Spider-Man NWH (2021) $803.8

 

International (Rest of the world)

Avatar (2009) $1.825 Billion 

 

A three segment record breaking movie would have to gross over $3.661 Billion. 

 

That's your top end right there in my opinion where everything goes right across the entire planet, a highly unlikely scenario in my opinion. 

 

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

China: the covid situation is far from settled however if we assume a best case scenario for A2. 

The Battle of Lake Changjin (2021) : $899.4 million

Top grossing American movie of all-time in China is Avengers Endgame (2019) $629.1 million

#2 The Fate of the Furious (2017) $392.8 million

It will easily break $1000M in China, still 7 months away from actual premiere... Also, TBALC made $961.7M with 1,012,616 (want to see).. while 430K Anticipation in Maoyan, with still months away from actual premiere...

 

http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=1190

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Thanks. I disagree with you on a lot of fronts, but I appreciate you taking the time to elaborate on your predictions. I do want to pick up on a few points:

 

Right back at you. Was a very interesting read for me. Some points i want to answer as well to:

 

22 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I strongly disagree on this — all signs point to Avatar 2 being a very big success in China. A rush-job re-release of Avatar which was approved by the film board and offered up for presales only 3 or 4 days prior to its release day managed to make over $57m in China last year. Chinese socials show very good signs. Yes, there should be some mild concerns about the COVID situation in China in December, and about how the administration might limit Avatar 2's release, but even so, I find it very hard to imagine a scenario where Avatar 2 ends up on the same level of success in China as a film like Aquaman.

 

I wasnt aware of Chinese social media buzz, or in other words, i admit i dont follow the Chinese box office (trends) as much as the one in the US and Europe. I do want to underline that i myself see my China prediction as very conservative and "safe". I just have a hard time thinking that a gross in the 600-800M region there is a sure thing like some others believe because even for China thats a really really high bar for success/disappointment if it goes under that. But i am very well aware that Avatar 1 did insane numbers back in 2009 so i fully agree that the potential for a gigantic gross is there. But movies not always reach the potential they should have in theory and again, without a trailer its very hard for me to predict it.

 

30 minutes ago, hw64 said:

On the contrary, Europe as a market has grown overall since 2009, not shrunk — as the above shows, European cinematic attendance hit its peak in 2019. Very slight declines in admissions in the mature European markets (the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) have been offset by significant growth in most Central and Eastern European markets. Of course, European cinema has taken a hit due to COVID, just like every other market, but I don't see any indication or reason to believe that European cinema won't bounce back (or isn't bouncing back) to the same extent as domestic cinema.

 

I do not want to question your sources too much but speaking for Germany and Austria, the admissions here are down a sizable amount since the start of the 2010s and moviegoing in general isnt nearly on the same level as in the late 2000s. In fact, for Germany 2018 and 2019 were the lowest years in terms of admissions since 1992:

 

https://www.insidekino.de/DBO.htm#JAHRES_&_ALL-TIME_CHARTS_

 

Eastern Europe definetly did grow but the Russian war against Ukraine will shut down those 2 markets for Avatar 2. Looking at the numbers for Avatar in some other european markets (France: 175M, Germany: 162M, UK: 150M, Spain: 109M), i just cant imagine Avatar 2 beeing able to come near those numbers. Reason beeing that Avatar 1 was a true phenomenon and true phenomenons are really really hard to duplicate for the sequels.

 

Now, like you said, a possible decline in Europe could be offset by growth in Asia and Latin America. Will it be enough though to come near Avatars worldwide numbers? I am sceptical at this point in time.

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Yes but "disappoint massively" has also a very wide range depending on who you ask here^^. For example, i think my (current, with no trailer) prediction of 1,7 - 1,9B for this worldwide would for many people already be an extreme, diabolical disaster of hellish proportions.

That's what makes it even more fun. Not only are the ranges huge, people will even be arguing over whether the numbers mean a success, a disappointment, or an expected result no matter what they are (barring the two extremes where it's either crushing every record, or has an insane collapse, obviously). Love it or hate it, I think we can all agree the discussions for this are going to be amusing to say the least.

Edited April 11, 2022 by JustLurking

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

That's what makes it even more fun. Not only are the ranges huge, people will even be arguing over whether the numbers mean a success, a disappointment, or an expected result no matter what they are (barring the two extremes where it's either crushing every record, or has an insane collapse, obviously). Love it or hate it, I think we can all agree the discussions for this are going to be amusing to say the least.

 

Im very much looking forward to its run for these reasons. No matter how it turns out, it will be worthwhile.

[Shanks]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

On the contrary, Europe as a market has grown overall since 2009, not shrunk — as the above graph shows, European cinematic attendance hit a ~25-year peak in 2019. Very slight declines in admissions in the mature European markets (the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) have been offset by significant growth in most Central and Eastern European markets. Of course, European cinema has taken a hit due to COVID, just like every other market, but I don't see any indication or reason to believe that European cinema won't bounce back, or isn't bouncing back, to the same extent as domestic cinema.

 

Europe's "MARKET" grew because the number of films released increased way more. That doesn't mean the Market for "Individual" Films has grown too. Let's only talk about the biggest 2019 year in Europe: It was a year that will be very tough to re-create for years to come, also it wasn't a year that was led by a single film but by multiple films of the same calibers. 

 

Are you suggesting 600 movies being attended 1 Billion times/ year vs. 800+ Movies being attended just 1.25 Billion/year as a growth? Don't take right info to dictate a wrong info. 

 

THIS IS YEARLY CHART OF NUMBER OF only Hollywood MOVIES RELEASED and not the Local ones:

 

 

Does your graph look pretty now? Did the Market really grow for you to advocate that Avatar 2 has a chance to outgrow Avatar in Admissions? Which year seems most impressive now?

 

A film can do 4.35 Billion if everything goes right for that film in every corner of World. Can Avatar 2 do 3 Billion WW? The answer is Certainly if it carries even half the visual appeal of Avatar 1. Can it top 4 Billion WW? Possibly, if It becomes a 'must-see sensation.' in all countries. 

 

https://unic-cinemas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/For_immediate_publication_-_UNIC_update_on_cinema-going_2019.pdf <---- @Brainbug the Dinosaur The PDF that shows that total admission really was 1.35 Billion in 2019. 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Shanks