Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Daxtreme]

On 7/11/2022 at 3:33 PM, IronJimbo said:

I always 'joke' that Avatar 2 will be what regular tent-pole blockbusters will look like in 2035.

 

I think it will look better than regular 2035 tent-poles.

 

CGI has sort-of hit its stride. Now the difference between good CGI and bad CGI isn't year of release, it's laziness. 

 

They have the means to make the best-looking, most-convincing CGI now. The only issue is... will they? It's slower, more expensive, and most people don't give a shit. So they don't.

 

But James Cameron will once again prove that they should.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

I think it will look better than regular 2035 tent-poles.

 

CGI has sort-of hit its stride. Now the difference between good CGI and bad CGI isn't year of release, it's laziness. 

 

They have the means to make the best-looking, most-convincing CGI now. The only issue is... will they? It's slower, more expensive, and most people don't give a shit. So they don't.

 

But James Cameron will once again prove that they should.

 

I guess eventually the tools be in place to be lazy and make CGI as good as Avatar 2... maybe 2040?

AI technology could actually come into play too

[IronJimbo]

Unless some disaster happens between now and Avatar 2, this December will be the best December EVER to make money Domestically.

 

[Stewart]

27 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Unless some disaster happens between now and Avatar 2, this December will be the best December EVER to make money Domestically.

 

Please elaborate Mr IJ

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, Stewart said:

Please elaborate Mr IJ

Well the disaster would be Covid related right, a new strand which is more lethal and stops people going to cinemas.

 

My spidey sense are going off hardcore with how well spiderman homecoming did last december, $800m domestic? Give me a break it has no right to be up there. WHICH MEANS its super easy to make money now.

Lots of demand + highest ever ticket prices. This December will be an easy billie

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Well the disaster would be Covid related right, a new strand which is more lethal and stops people going to cinemas.

 

My spidey sense are going off hardcore with how well spiderman homecoming did last december, $800m domestic? Give me a break it has no right to be up there. WHICH MEANS its super easy to make money now.

Lots of demand + highest ever ticket prices. This December will be an easy billie

 

Giant EVENT movie Endgame in 2018 made $860m domestically and Spidey comes along and pops out a $800m like its nothing.

It's bizarre to me that "Spiderman:no way home" made would only 7.5% less than Endgame

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Well the disaster would be Covid related right, a new strand which is more lethal and stops people going to cinemas.

 

My spidey sense are going off hardcore with how well spiderman homecoming did last december, $800m domestic? Give me a break it has no right to be up there. WHICH MEANS its super easy to make money now.

Lots of demand + highest ever ticket prices. This December will be an easy billie

 

 

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Giant EVENT movie Endgame in 2018 made $860m domestically and Spidey comes along and pops out a $800m like its nothing.

It's bizarre to me that "Spiderman:no way home" made would only 7.5% less than Endgame

 

You see how you can't possibly imagine how NWH made so much money?  There are people that think that exact same thing about Avatar.  

 

Avatar made all its money one way, NWH got there another way.  If you really can't see how one of the most beloved and popular superheroes of ALL TIME did this well, then I don't know what to tell you.

[IronJimbo]

41 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

You see how you can't possibly imagine how NWH made so much money?  There are people that think that exact same thing about Avatar.  

 

Avatar made all its money one way, NWH got there another way.  If you really can't see how one of the most beloved and popular superheroes of ALL TIME did this well, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

Why did you ignore my Endgame comparison and bring up Avatar?

NWH made only 7.5% less than Endgame, which I think strongly shows the current market strength.

And yes I do actually understand why NWH was popular, for that movie I would expect it to make 20% or more less than Endgame if they were released at the same time.

[IronJimbo]

To me NWH is a similar size film domestically to The Dark Knight.

It's just extremely helped out by the time it was released, literally the easiest moment in Domestic history to make money.

[Deep Wang]

52 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Why did you ignore my Endgame comparison and bring up Avatar?

NWH made only 7.5% less than Endgame, which I think strongly shows the current market strength.

And yes I do actually understand why NWH was popular, for that movie I would expect it to make 20% or more less than Endgame if they were released at the same time.

 

Well, then you see now that that's not how this works, right?  I don't know if you had this prediction before release, or are just pulling it out of your butt now to help justify why you think Ava2ar is going to make a billion...but expectations aren't reality.   

 

NWH was a mega-hyped, nostalgia driven comic book movie featuring all three of the live action Spider-men coming together to fight all their old enemies, featuring all the same actors.  It could and should have been a mess, but it worked for most critics, fans, as well as the general public.  

 

Yes movies are making more and more because of various reasons, and that will help Avatar as well, but I just don't know why you keep picking NWH as a comparison when there were A LOT of factors that helped that movie out that Avatar 2 won't have.  

Edited August 3, 2022 by Deep Wang

[Deuce66]

19 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

To me NWH is a similar size film domestically to The Dark Knight.

It's just extremely helped out by the time it was released, literally the easiest moment in Domestic history to make money.

 

I wouldn't get too cocky about Avatar's chances of making major bank in the domestic market. Avatar's themes are very divisive and North America is far more divided now than back in 2009. By default there's a large segment of the population that wants nothing to do with Avatar and its left leaning pro-enviromental/anti-corporate messaging. Marvel/DC movies don't have these issues as they tend to skirt away from anything in the real world. 

 

I think a realistic Domestic # for The Way of Water will land somewhere in the $450-$650 million range. If the movie is a complete dog (highly unlikely imo) then the bottom could fall out. 

 

2022 - Top Domestic

TGM: $653 million to date

Doctor Strange: $411.3

Jurassic World : $370.2

The Batman: $369.3 

 

2021 

Spider-Man NWH: $804.8

Shang-Chi: $224.5

Venom: $213.6

 

2019

Avengers Endgame: $858.4

Lion King: $543.6

Star Wars IX: $515.2

Frozen II: $477.4

Toy Story 4: $434.0

[Deuce66]

9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Well, then you see now that that's not how this works, right?  I don't know if you had this prediction before release, or are just pulling it out of your butt now to help justify why you think Ava2ar is going to make a billion...but expectations aren't reality.   

 

NWH was a mega-hyped, nostalgia driven comic book movie featuring all three of the live action Spider-men coming together to fight all their old enemies, featuring all the same actors.  It could and should have been a mess, but it worked for most critics, fans, as well as the general public.  

 

Yes movies are making more and more because of various reasons, and that will help Avatar as well, but I just don't know why you keep picking NWH as a comparison when there were A LOT of factors that helped that movie out that Avatar 2 won't have.  

 

Star Wars The Force Awakens played the fan service card to tremendous success, Spider-Man doubled down on the same idea also to major $$$$$. The Avengers movies are basically an MCU Greatest Hits album. Giving the fans exactly what they want usually works as long as the approach is fresh with a few twists thrown in.

 

What does Cameron have in store for A2? we don't know, the franchise is just getting started, he can't play the fan service card so that's not an option for him.  

[hw64]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

You see how you can't possibly imagine how NWH made so much money?  There are people that think that exact same thing about Avatar.  

 

Avatar made all its money one way, NWH got there another way.  If you really can't see how one of the most beloved and popular superheroes of ALL TIME did this well, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

You're misinterpreting what he said (par for the course, I know). He understands perfectly well what made No Way Home a success, his point is that he's surprised at the level of its success relative to Endgame, the most anticipated movie perhaps of all time which needed a 20+ movie buildup to do the business that it did.

 

And he's absolutely right to make that point and to question why it happened, because in a vacuum it doesn't make a whole lot of sense — No Way Home shouldn't have come as close to Endgame as it did. Part of the reason it did is because it was the first real big event blockbuster after the re-opening, part of the reason is because it had possibly the biggest competition vacuum in modern domestic history for the first two months of its run, and a big part of the reason is the massive ticket price inflation that's taken place domestically over the past few years. Equalize those factors between the two runs, and their grosses would be much further apart.

 

Top Gun: Maverick is also benefitting from these same factors — although its competition has been far greater than No Way Home's, its ticket prices are equal or greater, and it's also massively benefitting from being the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a large part of its audience base. It's a trite observation at this point, but it's no less true: TG:M was the movie to bring back older audiences to cinemas.

 

So what could this mean for Avatar 2's success? Well, Avatar 2 will benefit from these inflated ticket prices just as much as, if not more than No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick, and I think there's also a good argument to be made that Avatar 2 will be the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a significant portion of its audience base. As successful as superhero movies are, they don't even come close to capturing the interests of the entirety of the moviegoing population, and Avatar 2 could well be the Top Gun: Maverick for certain key demographics.

[IronJimbo]

18 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Well, then you see now that that's not how this works, right?  I don't know if you had this prediction before release, or are just pulling it out of your butt now to help justify why you think Ava2ar is going to make a billion...but expectations aren't reality.   

 

NWH was a mega-hyped, nostalgia driven comic book movie featuring all three of the live action Spider-men coming together to fight all their old enemies, featuring all the same actors.  It could and should have been a mess, but it worked for most critics, fans, as well as the general public.  

 

Yes movies are making more and more because of various reasons, and that will help Avatar as well, but I just don't know why you keep picking NWH as a comparison when there were A LOT of factors that helped that movie out that Avatar 2 won't have.  

Dude I know why NWH did really well. My point is that it was that DECEMBER 2021 was literally the best month EVER so far in existance to release a domestic movie to make money, which has overinflated the number.

 

Ava2ar is cute by the way i might use it.

 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You're misinterpreting what he said (par for the course, I know). He understands perfectly well what made No Way Home a success, his point is that he's surprised at the level of its success relative to Endgame, the most anticipated movie perhaps of all time which needed a 20+ movie buildup to do the business that it did.

 

And he's absolutely right to make that point and to question why it happened, because in a vacuum it doesn't make a whole lot of sense — No Way Home shouldn't have come as close to Endgame as it did. Part of the reason it did is because it was the first real big event blockbuster after the re-opening, part of the reason is because it had possibly the biggest competition vacuum in modern domestic history for the first two months of its run, and a big part of the reason is the massive ticket price inflation that's taken place domestically over the past few years. Equalize those factors between the two runs, and their grosses would be much further apart.

 

Top Gun: Maverick is also benefitting from these same factors — although its competition has been far greater than No Way Home's, its ticket prices are equal or greater, and it's also massively benefitting from being the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a large part of its audience base. It's a trite observation at this point, but it's no less true: TG:M was the movie to bring back older audiences to cinemas.

 

So what could this mean for Avatar 2's success? Well, Avatar 2 will benefit from these inflated ticket prices just as much as, if not more than No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick, and I think there's also a good argument to be made that Avatar 2 will be the first post-pandemic movie to really cater to a significant portion of its audience base. As successful as superhero movies are, they don't even come close to capturing the interests of the entirety of the moviegoing population, and Avatar 2 could well be the Top Gun: Maverick for certain key demographics.

thank you hw64 you articulate my thoughts so much better than me

[hw64]

Also, I've been running some overseas numbers over the past few days and I'm still firmly on the 3 billies train.

 

Will post findings when I get a chance.

Edited August 3, 2022 by hw64

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

You're misinterpreting what he said (par for the course, I know). He understands perfectly well what made No Way Home a success, his point is that he's surprised at the level of its success relative to Endgame, the most anticipated movie perhaps of all time which needed a 20+ movie buildup to do the business that it did.

 

🙄

 

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

My spidey sense are going off hardcore with how well spiderman homecoming did last december, $800m domestic? Give me a break it has no right to be up there. WHICH MEANS its super easy to make money now.

 

How exactly did I misinterpret this statement from him?  Again, this isn't the first time he has brought up NWH when talking about Ava2ar's potential run.  If you want to do some heavy lifting and help him out, that's all you.  How else can anyone interpret this, except him saying that some funny book movie made this much, a billion is all but guaranteed for the brilliance of Avatar!!!

 

We are all in agreement that NHW had a perfect storm of perfect storms that helped it get to $800m domestic.  That makes it appear 'super easy' but it was luck and timing and the fact that they actually made a movie that fans loved. 

A lot of these factors aren't going to be there for WOTW aside from inflation and December legs.  Does that mean it's impossible for A2 to make a billion domestic?  Of course not!  

 

It's going to be one of the most fun weekends on here in a while, lol.

[IronJimbo]

15 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

🙄

 

 

How exactly did I misinterpret this statement from him?  Again, this isn't the first time he has brought up NWH when talking about Ava2ar's potential run.  If you want to do some heavy lifting and help him out, that's all you.  How else can anyone interpret this, except him saying that some funny book movie made this much, a billion is all but guaranteed for the brilliance of Avatar!!!

 

We are all in agreement that NHW had a perfect storm of perfect storms that helped it get to $800m domestic.  That makes it appear 'super easy' but it was luck and timing and the fact that they actually made a movie that fans loved. 

A lot of these factors aren't going to be there for WOTW aside from inflation and December legs.  Does that mean it's impossible for A2 to make a billion domestic?  Of course not!  

 

It's going to be one of the most fun weekends on here in a while, lol.

 

is it really so hard to understand I think NWH $800m shows the strength of the domestic market right now?

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

is it really so hard to understand I think NWH $800m shows the strength of the domestic market right now?

 

Well, yes of course, but nobody is arguing the opposite though.

[dudalb]

A lot could happen between now and December.

A recession could well hit before that.