Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deuce66]

12 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Come to think of it, when was the last time a re-release got any sort of traction? I think it was the 20th anniversary re-release of Jurassic Park.  

 

and that was in 2013 when it pulled in $118.2 million - Titanic 3D in 2012 made $350 million - Star Wars IV re-released in 1997 with $138 million, Empire made $67.6.

 

there are probably a bunch of examples but nothing recent that I can remember, the E.T. Imax currently in re-release made $1.785 million - barely worth the trouble 

 

[Deuce66]

8 minutes ago, In XXR We Trust said:

 

Do we know how many countries are getting the re-release? 

Domestically, I expect it to be under $10M. 

 

 

I have to assume this is a worldwide re-release minus China.

 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

29 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

and that was in 2013 when it pulled in $118.2 million - Titanic 3D in 2012 made $350 million - Star Wars IV re-released in 1997 with $138 million, Empire made $67.6.

 

there are probably a bunch of examples but nothing recent that I can remember, the E.T. Imax currently in re-release made $1.785 million - barely worth the trouble 

 

 

The STARS WARS: SPECIAL EDITION made $254.2m worldwide.

 

EMPIRE STRIKES BACK: $123.4m

RETURN OF THE JEDI: $88m

Edited August 23, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles
UPDATE

[Maggie]

So, what are the latest predictions for this? domestic i think 700-800M

[Alexdube]

4 hours ago, AJG said:

<<<<<$15m total.

 

3 hours ago, In XXR We Trust said:

 

Do we know how many countries are getting the re-release? 

Domestically, I expect it to be under $10M. 

 

Nah, I'm going to say it's going to clear those marks easily. It did what $57M from China alone? Before any sort of A2 promotion or remaster? There is a market for this, especially with families I think. I'm sure there are a bunch of parents out there looking to get their kids to see it who weren't even born when the first one was released, get that experience you can only get in a theater.

 

[NCsoft]

4 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

 

I have to assume this is a worldwide re-release minus China.

 

I am assuming that China doesn't do this re-release as well since they did a re-release last year. Though I kind of hope it does release in China, not saying that it's going to earn a lot (Chinese market situation is far from optimal at the moment), but I think having a re-release there in September will help clarify whether Avatar 2 will get a release there.  

 

If China does this re-release, I think it's almost guaranteed A2 will release; otherwise, still unclear. 

[TheDude391]

31 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I am assuming that China doesn't do this re-release as well since they did a re-release last year. Though I kind of hope it does release in China, not saying that it's going to earn a lot (Chinese market situation is far from optimal at the moment), but I think having a re-release there in September will help clarify whether Avatar 2 will get a release there.  

 

If China does this re-release, I think it's almost guaranteed A2 will release; otherwise, still unclear. 

I think China will since the last rerelease wasn’t official and this is a new remaster so it will be different.

[WittyUsername]

I don’t think the re-release needs to extend to China, although if it happens, it would be a telltale sign that TWoW really will get released over there, despite the Chinese government’s current beef with Disney. 
 

Could you imagine If we eventually got to a point where China completely phased out all Hollywood releases, except or Avatar films?

Edited August 24, 2022 by WittyUsername

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 hours ago, Eric the Genie said:

 

 

i've seen the good trailer for 1 a couple of times over the last few months, cant help but feel the remaster makes it look worse (a bit plasticky thus fake), the dynamic fps also seems annoying

 

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

i've seen the good trailer for 1 a couple of times over the last few months, cant help but feel the remaster makes it look worse (a bit plasticky thus fake), the dynamic fps also seems annoying

 

that's a 24fps video...

[Elessar]

Titanic 3D's DOM gross = Avatar 4K WW gross?

 

Unless it gets a release in China... 

[hw64]

13 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

Domestically, I expect it to be under $10M.

 

 

Jesus, what's going on here then? I have it doing $25-$30m domestically at the very least, and I could easily see it going significantly higher. Even the special edition in 2010, released only a few months after Avatar sold 75m+ tickets domestically and with significantly lower ticket prices to boot, managed to clear $10m. I think this is a big underestimation.

 

56 minutes ago, Elessar said:

Titanic 3D's DOM gross [$57.9m] = Avatar 4K WW gross?

 

Unless it gets a release in China... 

 

Too low. Should do great business in places like India, South Korea, Brazil — markets that have significantly expanded since 2009.

 

Assuming that it gets a good amount of marketing and isn't just dumped, I'll go "bold" (at least relative to the general expectations that have been posted here) and say $30m+ domestic, $100m+ worldwide, $130m+ with a China release.

Edited August 24, 2022 by hw64

[Elessar]

4 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Too low. Should do great business in places like India, South Korea, Brazil — markets that have significantly expanded since 2009.

 

Yeah but it's a two weeks limited engagement. That doesn't read like it's gonna be in a lot of theaters and something they would do a lot of marketing for.

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Yeah but it's a two weeks limited engagement. That doesn't read like it's gonna be in a lot of theaters and something they would do a lot of marketing for.

 

I'd wager it's a marketing gimmick to drive "don't miss out" demand. You don't remaster an entire movie and re-release it globally only to have it play for a mere two weeks — too much effort has been put into this re-release for it to be just dumped in a few hundred theaters with no marketing for a few days.

 

A comparable would be the Toy Story 3D re-release in 2009, which also started out as a limited 2-week engagement but was extended to 4 weeks due to its success and ended up making over $30m domestically. There's absolutely no reason to limit the run to 2 weeks as there's pretty much nothing else on until Black Adam 4 weeks later, so it seems logical that the run — if it's successful — will be extended to 4 weeks as with Toy Story.

[Deuce66]

5 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

I'd wager it's a marketing gimmick to drive "don't miss out" demand. You don't remaster an entire movie and re-release it globally only to have it play for a mere two weeks — too much effort has been put into this re-release for it to be just dumped in a few hundred theaters with no marketing for a few days.

 

A comparable would be the Toy Story 3D re-release in 2009, which also started out as a limited 2-week engagement but was extended to 4 weeks due to its success and ended up making over $30m domestically. There's absolutely no reason to limit the run to 2 weeks as there's pretty much nothing else on until Black Adam 4 weeks later, so it seems logical that the run — if it's successful — will be extended to 4 weeks as with Toy Story.

 

Also if it happens to do really well for a re-release they can use the "Due to popular demand, held over for another 2 weeks" line in subsequent marketing. 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

probably just an excuse to save face, but Sandberg said the reason shazam was delayed was because theater owners werent willng to give them imax's/plf's

Edited August 25, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Deuce66]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Imagine being a theatre owner and business has been terrible for 3 years... but there's light at the end of the tunnel. There's a last hope, the legendary filmmaker James Cameron is coming back with a film capable of filling out cinemas for 2 months straight. Finally the first month in forever where you're not running at a loss, it feels like ecstasy after seeing the income stream in the red for 30 months straight. You put Avatar 2 into IMAX screens and it's FILLING them out, the sense of relief must be so high it makes you emotional makes you cry happy tears.

 

Then comes along Shazam and tries to sweep the rug from under you and says "It's MY TURN!!" like a 6yo who wants to go on the xbox. Get lost Shazam, the adults are busy

 

Right now there isn't much on the schedule that I'm excited for if I'm a theatre owner except for TWO titles that I hope will generate huge $$. 

 

Black Adam - Oct 21?? not much buzz there. 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Nov 11 - I predict this will be huge, bigger than Top Gun 

and of course 

Avatar: The Way of Water - Dec 16 

 

Shazam getting moved is no surprise, why risk getting buried by another Cameron behemoth. 

[Alexdube]

On 8/23/2022 at 1:22 PM, NCsoft said:

It's interesting to me that the poster gets better traction (from both Jim's account and the official account) than the re-release trailer. The trailer is really well put together IMO, anyway, very excited to see Avatar again in theatres next month!

Now not only is this getting better traction than the Avatar re-release trailer, it got better traction than his own post about the Avatar 2 teaser, believe it or not

 

 

Some might say that's a negative sign for Avatar 2, but you could argue it's doing well because of the announcement of Avatar 2 and building up hype for the franchise. Regardless, it's an early sign people do care about finally getting a proper Avatar re-release more than a decade after the original run.

 

Comparatively here's the NWH re-release announcement (highest I could find on all Marvel accounts)

 

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Now not only is this getting better traction than the Avatar re-release trailer, it got better traction than his own post about the Avatar 2 teaser, believe it or not

 

 

 

Yeah well this tweet has a pretty poster in it, I wouldn't read too much into that.

[Porthos]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dont-worry-darling-and-the-re-issue-of-avatar/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios

 

 

Quote

PROS:

Avatar, once the highest grossing film in domestic history, is returning to the pop culture conversation with its coming sequel having been advertised in theaters all summer. A claim on IMAX and many PLF screens as part of this re-issue’s nationwide two-week engagement should bring out fans and those who may be too young to have seen the film in a theatrical setting during its initial 2009-2010 run.

 

CONS:

• Some in the social media sphere have questioned Avatar‘s remaining cultural impact nearly 13 years after release and the decay of 3D’s popularity since. James Cameron is looking to remind the world of how much impact the film had and still has on its fans.
  
  This is certainly going to be a test of anticipation for The Way of Water before it opens at the end of the year. Forecasts are also volatile until location counts for opening weekend become more clear.