Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

43 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I got torn to shreds for that prediction. Especially by Kal.

 

Well you were about 340% off!

I may seem ridiculous at times but I do think the ">$3b is more likely than <$2b" is true. No bias, mind over heart.

 

 

[Ethan Hunt]

nah. ain't touching Avatar's WW gross. think we're still at least 10-15 years away from anything doing that

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

nah. ain't touching Avatar's WW gross. think we're still at least 10-15 years away from anything doing that

well A2 ain't going under $2b

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

well A2 ain't going under $2b

I didn't say that it would

[vc2002]

Head people at Fox might've been mad these years. You have the highest grossing film of all time in your pocket but you can't make a fucking dime off the sequel until 11 fucking years later.

 

Avatar sequel is defying all kinds of existing Hollywood sequel business model. Usually it'd be the dumbest move ever, but Cameron has done that twice before and he won both, so, on a boxoffice site like this, how A2 will perform at boxoffice will definitely be the most interesting case ever, and to quote BKB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"YOU'RE STUPID IF YOU THINK OTHERWISE!"

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2017 by vc2002

[NCsoft]

10 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

Ha I see. Well, I'm sure we all agree Avatar is certainly not a a darling on internet but I think it's up to you to decide for yoursellf whether or not those loud nay-saying about Avatar on internet since 2009 represents how the real world think, aka to quote BKB "NO ONE LIKES AVATAR NO ONE TALKS ABOUT AVATAR YOURE STUPID IF YOU THINK OTHERWISE!"

 

On the other hand, those loud nay-saying aint really something new. Titanic used to be the target and then Avatar took the spot. There's something about Cameron's last two "chick flicks" that just rubbed some people the wrong way.

 

On the bright side, only 3 yeasr to go to settle the question of whether Avatar made 2.7BN because Cameron got lucky like he did with Titanic, or because people actually loved those films.

 

I think this is accurate, the irony is, Cameron will likely be remembered most for Titanic and Avatar. Internet people can get it very wrong sometimes...

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, THE PHENOMENAL BKB said:

 

I'll tell ya: I really don't think you grasp just how much 3B really is and how difficult a number like that would be to achieve.. You throw 3B or more around like it's no big deal and it is.. Just saying..

 

Throwing it around like it's no big deal? We're talking about the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time that changed the course of cinema single handedly.

This is Jimbo we're talking about, I could understand if you think Cameron caught lightning in a bottle once, but twice though? He is the box office King.

 

The number comes with the territory.

[Barnack]

23 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Throwing it around like it's no big deal? We're talking about the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time that changed the course of cinema single handedly.

This is Jimbo we're talking about, I could understand if you think Cameron caught lightning in a bottle once, but twice though? He is the box office King.

 

The number comes with the territory.

 

That is the issue the highest grossing movie of all time has never been a sequel, and there is probably some reason for that, you limit your audience, you have resistance from everyone that have not seen the first one, plus you loose everyone that didn't like it (well that part seem less true today, you can now read people complaining about a movie sequel and about the first too).

 

3B in 2020 would be Cameron worst box office performance in a long time, a good drop from Titanic and Avatar, but the movie is a sequel big limitating factor is not to be underestimated.

[Elessar]

As much as i'd love the bullish predictors to be right, Titanic is a much more realistic benchmark for Avatar 2.

[JB33]

With a number as big as AVATAR's worldwide gross, you can't just take it for granted that the sequel will beat it and gross $3B+.

[Eevin]

Anything over $2b is great for Avatar 2. $3b+? Never say never to James Cameron, but even with the bigger China market the best it can hope for is Avatar numbers ($2.788b) imo. 

 

$4b is just ridiculous.

[Premium George]

This is unprecedented. Anything between $1 billion and $3 billion could happen. I am excited for the marketing of this movie.

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

This is unprecedented. Anything between $1 billion and $3 billion could happen. I am excited for the marketing of this movie.

 

The biggest movie worldwide of all time unadjusted got sequels in the past, Empire Strike back, Jurassic Park 2, it is not 100% without precedent, but different era enough and extremely small sample size to make it not that different than unprecedented. But they can easily drop by a huge amount.

 

9 hours ago, Eevin said:

Anything over $2b is great for Avatar 2. $3b+? Never say never to James Cameron, but even with the bigger China market the best it can hope for is Avatar numbers ($2.788b) imo. 

 

$4b is just ridiculous.

 

Not saying you are wrong because I feel like you (but what 4b will mean in 2020 will depend a lot of the exchange rate and China market), but I'm sure personally I would have said that 2.78b in 2009 was ridiculous for a movie if I was following box office back then, and I would have said that over 1.8 billion was non sense in 1997, etc...

 

Not loosing much from the first one for a movie that saturated the market like that would already be an unheard accomplishment. 

Edited April 24, 2017 by Barnack

[Premium George]

17 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

The biggest movie worldwide of all time unadjusted got sequels in the past, Empire Strike back, Jurassic Park 2, it is not 100% without precedent, but different era enough and extremely small sample size to make it not that different than unprecedented.

 

 

Not saying you are wrong because I feel like you (but what 4b will mean in 2020 will depend a lot of the exchange rate and China market), but I'm sure personally I would have said that 2.78b in 2009 was ridiculous for a movie if I was following box office back then, and I would have said that over 1.8 billion was non sense in 1997, etc...

 

Not loosing much from the first one for a movie that saturated the market like that would already be an unheard accomplishment. 

The gap between both, very less cultural impact and reasons given by you makes this a special case.

And your second point s amazing. Avatar and titanic WW performance are still not repeated.

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Eevin said:

Anything over $2b is great for Avatar 2. $3b+? Never say never to James Cameron, but even with the bigger China market the best it can hope for is Avatar numbers ($2.788b) imo. 

 

$4b is just ridiculous.

With the same number of tickets Avatar had everywhere but China, Avatar 2 could make $4b!

 

...if the US dollar tanks that is

[Eevin]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

With the same number of tickets Avatar had everywhere but China, Avatar 2 could make $4b!

 

...if the US dollar tanks that is

Given the current president of the United States, that's not entirely implausible

[cheesypoofs]

I just don't think waiting 11 years and then getting hit with a bunch of sequels is a good idea. I think the ship has sailed for avatar 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, cheesypoofs said:

I just don't think waiting 11 years and then getting hit with a bunch of sequels is a good idea. I think the ship has sailed for avatar 

 

I don't know about that, google trend is maybe not a wise metric to use, and maybe being a small one word film title it does work as well for is algo, but Avatar interest online since 2011 has being going strong:

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2011-03-23 2017-04-23&q=%2Fm%2F0bth54,%2Fm%2F0gmbk1g,%2Fm%2F0125zrjx

 

Bigger than Captain America civil war interest in most of the year 2015, for a 6 year's old movie vs a big marvel future release, specially outside the US.

 

the avengers infinity war vs avatar 2 vs avatar google trend in the last 12 month is also very telling:

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 12-m&q=%2Fm%2F0bth54,%2Fm%2F0gmbk1g,%2Fm%2F0126b8kn

 

If google trend is right, Avatar and Avatar 2 enthusiast online without a clear movie, with a very far away release date is bigger than the next Avengers, similar to Wonder Woman this year (and much more popular outside the canada-us-uk-autralia market).

 

I never seen any argument to support the no one care about Avatar after it release, it is the best bluray sellers of all time with Frozen, it has a strange online presence for such an old movie without any material (picture, teaser, trailer, storyline) for is sequel. It is something people say freely without pointing to any form of source to support it.

Edited April 24, 2017 by Barnack

[NCsoft]

9 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

That is the issue the highest grossing movie of all time has never been a sequel, and there is probably some reason for that, you limit your audience, you have resistance from everyone that have not seen the first one, plus you loose everyone that didn't like it (well that part seem less true today, you can now read people complaining about a movie sequel and about the first too).

 

3B in 2020 would be Cameron worst box office performance in a long time, a good drop from Titanic and Avatar, but the movie is a sequel big limitating factor is not to be underestimated.

 

Yes, exactly, which is why I think it is plausible for Avatar 2 to make 3B in 2020.

If accounted for inflation and global market expansion, both original run of Avatar and Titanic comfortably adjust to over 3B in 2020, Titanic may be near 4B.

If Avatar 2 does 3B WW in 2020, it still would not be as impressive as Avatar's 2.78B in 2009, and Titanic's 1.84B in 1997.

 

[NCsoft]

14 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

I just don't think waiting 11 years and then getting hit with a bunch of sequels is a good idea. I think the ship has sailed for avatar 

 

Oh, but the ship has not sailed, you will see.