Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

Regarding Endgame beating Avatar, if it wasn't for China there would be no conversation at all regarding#1 W/W. EG just passed the $600 million mark in China and has started to crash hard - down almost 90% over previous Fri.,

Kinda like the how Avatar had really great exchange rates that Endgame doesn't?  

 

It's almost as if each film's gross is a product of its time and place with multiple variables both helping and hurting it along the way.  

 

You can quibble all you want, but Endgame is making bank. It doesn't matter how quickly versus how slowly, it doesn't matter if it's dropping off huge in China, it's made $600m!!  

 

Avatar had one of the most impressive box office runs of all time, we will probably never see anything like that again.  Guess what?  Endgame is also having one of the most impressive box office runs of all time as well, it is just going about it in a much different fashion.

[Deuce66]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

It's almost as if each film's gross is a product of its time and place with multiple variables both helping and hurting it along the way.  

 

Agree 100% - if we could get # of tickets sold for each country - the avg. price of those tickets and the exchange rates in effect (if applicable) we could measure apples to apples. 

 

Looking at the Domestic adjusted for inflation chart Titanic is #5, Avatar is #15 and Endgame is currently 31st, it will probably finish somewhere in the 12-18 range. 

 

 

 

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

Regarding Endgame beating Avatar, if it wasn't for China there would be no conversation at all regarding#1 W/W. EG just passed the $600 million mark in China and has started to crash hard - down almost 90% over previous Fri., Avatar finished with $204 million. That being said I still say that Endgame will come up short in its quest to dethrone Avatar for #1 worldwide. 

 

Back of the napkin prediction for EG.

 

Domestic: $825 million

China: $660 m

Foreign: $1.2 B

Total: $2.685B 

 

Detached from reality and literally not even possible. It will be above this total by the end of the month.

[Deuce66]

28 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

What were the screens in China now vs in 09?

 

The growth in the business is truly spectacular (see chart), 5 to 6 thousand screens in 2009 versus over 50 thousand in 2017. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cinema_of_China#Box_office_and_screens

 

 

[cdsacken]

20 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Kinda like the how Avatar had really great exchange rates that Endgame doesn't?  

 

It's almost as if each film's gross is a product of its time and place with multiple variables both helping and hurting it along the way.  

 

You can quibble all you want, but Endgame is making bank. It doesn't matter how quickly versus how slowly, it doesn't matter if it's dropping off huge in China, it's made $600m!!  

 

Avatar had one of the most impressive box office runs of all time, we will probably never see anything like that again.  Guess what?  Endgame is also having one of the most impressive box office runs of all time as well, it is just going about it in a much different fashion.

Agreed and to be frank you are a hell of closer to the numbers on this than 99% of the board self included. Much appreciate the analysis and of course those sweet sweet numbers

 

[Deuce66]

3 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Detached from reality and literally not even possible. It will be above this total by the end of the month.

 

what are your numbers? 

[cdsacken]

20 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

what are your numbers? 

Final?

 

DOM 870

China : 630

OS-China 1.35b

Total 2:85B perhaps a tiny a bit more or less.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by cdsacken

[RealCaptMarvel]

I don't think blue pocahontas is going to gross $2b, the first film is just straight up pure trash and no one's really asking for avatar 2 other than senile cammy fans

 

titanic's a masterpiece though

[LaughingEvans]

31 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

what are your numbers?  

 

Don't have any numbers here, but since Endgame will be over 2.5billion by tuesday, and given that memorial weekend is coming, I don't see how it will only do 150m more WW, till FFH comes out.

[Avatree]

11 minutes ago, RealCaptMarvel said:

I don't think blue pocahontas is going to gross $2b, the first film is just straight up pure trash and no one's really asking for avatar 2 other than senile cammy fans

 

titanic's a masterpiece though

no one asked for Avatar, and yet it became the biggest film ever.

🤔

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

Regarding Endgame beating Avatar, if it wasn't for China there would be no conversation at all regarding#1 W/W. EG just passed the $600 million mark in China and has started to crash hard - down almost 90% over previous Fri., Avatar finished with $204 million. That being said I still say that Endgame will come up short in its quest to dethrone Avatar for #1 worldwide. 

 

Back of the napkin prediction for EG.

 

Domestic: $825 million

China: $660 m

Foreign: $1.2 B

Total: $2.685B 

 

Even if it's by $1, it means dethroning anyway. 

 

Actuals for EG are:

Dom: $723M (total could be more on the 850M)

China: $600M (potentially to 630M)

Rest Intl.: $1.16B (your maximum of 1.2B is where you fail)

 

Rest Intl. I think it can go up to 1.3B, what would mean $2.780B, $8M down from Avatar ... I think EG will end up #1 ww by a short margin (less than $50M) ... but #1 ww anyway. 

[Deuce66]

34 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

 

Don't have any numbers here, but since Endgame will be over 2.5billion by tuesday, and given that memorial weekend is coming, I don't see how it will only do 150m more WW, till FFH comes out.

 

Aladdin's going to take a huge chunk of that Memorial Day $, leftovers for Pokemon, John Wick 3, Endgame will be on it's 5th weekend by then.

IW pulled in $22.4M including the Monday last year. 

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

29 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Aladdin's going to take a huge chunk of that Memorial Day $, leftovers for Pokemon, John Wick 3, Endgame will be on it's 5th weekend by then.

IW pulled in $22.4M including the Monday last year. 

 

 

Why on earth will Pokemon take the leftovers of Memorial Day , when EG 3rd we has been over Pokemon ow?

What makes you think that Pokemon will be above EG in a couple of week ends? 

[DAJK]

Imagine 5 years of Cameron fanboys hyping up China as the new domestic. Then in 2021, Avatar 2 doesn't pass Chinese censorship and doesn't get released there. 

[cdsacken]

10 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Why on earth will Pokemon take the leftovers of Memorial Day , when EG 3rd we has been over Pokemon ow?

What makes you think that Pokemon will be above EG in a couple of week ends? 

Yeah it won't. Pokemon will fall more than 50% next week and it's already behind. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Imagine 5 years of Cameron fanboys hyping up China as the new domestic. Then in 2021, Avatar 2 doesn't pass Chinese censorship and doesn't get released there. 

Jims met with goverment officials... tbh he could get China to fund them, would be better than Disney

[DAJK]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

Jims met with goverment officials... tbh he could get China to fund them, would be better than Disney

I mean I'd def prefer someone I respect as a filmmaker, writer, and storyteller to work with someone like Disney rather than a government that has imprisoned hundreds of thousands of muslims in prison camps

[LaughingEvans]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Aladdin's going to take a huge chunk of that Memorial Day $, leftovers for Pokemon, John Wick 3, Endgame will be on it's 5th weekend by then.

IW pulled in $22.4M including the Monday last year. 

 

 

 

Regardless of that, can you break down the dailies for the next 30 days that will lead to a sub 150ww gross left?

[IronJimbo]

52 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I mean I'd def prefer someone I respect as a filmmaker, writer, and storyteller to work with someone like Disney rather than a government that has imprisoned hundreds of thousands of muslims in prison camps

He wouldn't be working directly with the gov... just got to keep those badmen happy. China studio funding Avatar's would give it all the room it needs to thrive and not alternate with a dead franchise like Star Wars.

[NCsoft]

56 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I mean I'd def prefer someone I respect as a filmmaker, writer, and storyteller to work with someone like Disney rather than a government that has imprisoned hundreds of thousands of muslims in prison camps

Oh wow, you're taking this into a strange direction...

Let's just stay with the notion that the Chinese government is more concerned with environmental issues, and has strong motivation to promote environmentalism message to its citizens.