The Dark Knight Rises OS Discussion Thread/700M+ OS CLUB

[Hatebox]

My theory has always been that TDK was the right movie for its time because the world was on the verge of economic collapse but it hadn't quite hit yet, and people were intrigued by seeing that played out symbolically on film. TDKR, on the other hand, may be the wrong film at the wrong time because it shows an exaggerated possibility of the shitty world we live in and for many it might be too close to the bone now.What I'm trying to say is I'm interested to see how it fares OS given its tone. If you look at the top WW grossers, none of them are nearly as bleak as this film.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Hatebox

[Elessar]

What a beast TDKR is !These numbers suggest high 600M without China. Could be 800M+, more tickets than TA, China added.

Not you again with your overenthusiastic overpredictions. ;)It is not coming close to $800m OS. It is not making $700m OS even.EDIT:Okay, i'll add, if it gets released in China and breaks out big time, like over $100m, then $700m OS might be possible. Edited July 23, 2012 by Elessar

[pinocchio]

I won't even make 600 mio OS.

[Elessar]

That's also a possibility.

[peludo]

I think it weill surpass 600, but more than 650 is difficult. If China doesn't get a release, I don't see it. 650 could be a good target.

[Heretic]

I'll just be happy to see it pass a billion.Possibly 1.1bn.

[Shantal]

I'll just be happy to see it pass a billion.Possibly 1.1bn.

What breakdown does it need for this - something like 450 mil DOM and 650 mil OS? I guess the second weekend drops OS will show if that's possible.

[DeeCee]

So far it's opening about 20% above TDK so it should hit $600m if it has similar legs but with China and other expanding markets $700m shouldn't be ruled out.

[Hatebox]

My hope had always been 1.1b but that was relying on the expectedly large percentage of the US take.If it gets 1b now I'd consider that decent after the surreal US start. People say the news story will fade out in that country and it'll get the legs it was always going have, but I think the massacre has fundamentally attached itself to the movie in many peoples' minds. It's not fear, just a general downer.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Hatebox

[Heretic]

What breakdown does it need for this - something like 450 mil DOM and 650 mil OS?I guess the second weekend drops OS will show if that's possible.

Something like that. Or 475m/625mI'm think grosses during the week in the UK will be deflated due to the great weather we're finally having, and then the weekend due to the olympics. But after that it should rebound.

[peludo]

Sincerely, I don't think Olympics will have a huge effect over box office. This is not like what happened in June with Euro.

[Heretic]

Sincerely, I don't think Olympics will have a huge effect over box office. This is not like what happened in June with Euro.

Overall I don't think the effect will be too significant overall. But it's the opening ceremony and probably half the population of this country will be watching. Edited July 23, 2012 by Heretic

[Fakhir]

TDKR does not look like it will sustain in India given its weekend performance especially Saturday and Sunday not showing increases over Friday.

Start of Ramadan probably had an effect.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

what are you guying smoking ? Ahh ?600M OS is 90% locked without China.

[jb007]

Start of Ramadan probably had an effect.

I think the main reason is that it is not playing well beyond the premium multiplex cities due to its length and pacing. It had to appeal to the masses in second tier cities to show growth on Sat and Sun and it looks like it has failed to do so.

[pinocchio]

what are you guying smoking ? Ahh ?600M OS is 90% locked without China.

Why should it be locked? The domestic/OS ratio from BB to TDK hardly improved, and TDKR is not 3D.

[peludo]

Overall I don't think the effect will be too significant overall. But it's the opening ceremony and probably half the population of this country will be watching.

Ok, I admit that in Europe it will affect (of course in UK it will), but not in Asia or America. The ceremony starts at 21 (London time). In America will have ended at 19 (Sao Paulo time) or at 16 (LA time). They have nearly the whole evening to go to theaters. And in Asia or Oceania they will be sleeping or having breakfast when the ceremony starts.For the record, Beijing opening ceremony was watched in Spain by 4 million. And Barcelona 92 ceremony was watched by 6 million 20 years ago. It's quite people, but nothing outrageous

[Heretic]

Some are predicting a WW audience of 4 billion.I don't even know how that's possible. But yeah, I'm sure the effect won't be too dramatic, except for that one day in the UK.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Why should it be locked? The domestic/OS ratio from BB to TDK hardly improved, and TDKR is not 3D.

It already opened in 17 markets and grossed 70M from 9 of them. In these markets, it is doing much better than TASM and the latter is closing to 500M without China. Overally TDKR is quite close to TASM in opened markets.

[peludo]

Why should it be locked? The domestic/OS ratio from BB to TDK hardly improved, and TDKR is not 3D.

The OS markets have increased a lot since 2008.TDK grossed in Australia 40 million. TDKR is headed to make between 50 and 55 there.TDK did 25 million in South Korea. It seems TDKR has already grossed 16 in OW. Where could it land, 50? 60?TDK grossed 53 million between Russia, Brazil and Mexico. It's probably that 3 countries can cume 100 million adding their numbers. With TA they have tested how big they are.With this 5 countries I think we can have 100 million more than TDK. Even a depressed market as Spanish can outgross TDK 16 million. TDK did 468 million OS. You can never say something is locked in box office (this weekend is the best test), but it's difficult that TDKR doesn't reach that number.