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John Wick: Chapter 2 | February 10, 2017 | Teaser Trailer on Page 8

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Just now, robertman2 said:

Also when was the last time the Wachowskis made a good movie?

 

Speed Racer. :ph34r: But who says they need to make it? I don't think they own the IP.

 

4 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Well Revolutions did shit the bed something fierce.

 

Years and years ago though.

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2 minutes ago, RandomJC said:
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Reviews Spoiled that one already.

 

Yes, the dog survives.

 

Spoiler

:excited:

 

7 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Speed Racer. :ph34r: But who says they need to make it? I don't think they own the IP.

 

 

Years and years ago though.

I forgot about Speed Racer. That was pretty cool. First movie I saw in IMAX.

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49 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

For an action sequel as well. 

 

20 reviews in on RT. I need @Jason to give me a range for the final rating. 

 

Rating, or tomatometer score? No matter, I can do both.

 

At only 20 reviews in, the 90% confidence interval for the RT score is enormous - 81% to 98%, assuming that the final number of reviews is around 200. I don't even want to see what the 95% C.I. looks like.

 

There's about two-thirds chance the final RT score ends up being between 86% to 96%. If you're only interested in the lower limit, about an 85% chance the final rating is at least 86%.

 

Graph of the probability distribution for the final RT score looks like this:

 

zK8VJpz.png

Exercise caution in interpreting the P-values, there are about two bars shown for every percentage point. So the probability of exactly a 95% final rating is about 9%, not 4.5%.

 

Only 13 of the 20 reviews so far have provided a rating. Based on those, final rating has two-thirds chance of falling between 7.1 and 7.8, or an 85% chance of exceeding 7.1.

 

All of this assumes random sampling of course - the impression I get from examining about 25-ish films from the past few years (top ten of 2015 and 2016 plus a few others) is that any non-random bias is small for most films, but there's a minority of films that deviate well outside random sampling expectations. (Three out of those 25, one that is borderline)

Edited by Jason
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12 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Rating, or tomatometer score? No matter, I can do both.

 

At only 20 reviews in, the 90% confidence interval for the RT score is enormous - 81% to 98%, assuming that the final number of reviews is around 200. I don't even want to see what the 95% C.I. looks like.

 

There's about two-thirds chance the final RT score ends up being between 86% to 96%. If you're only interested in the lower limit, about an 85% chance the final rating is at least 86%.

 

Graph of the probability distribution for the final RT score looks like this:

 

zK8VJpz.png

Exercise caution in interpreting the P-values, there are about two bars shown for every percentage point. So the probability of exactly a 95% final rating is about 9%, not 4.5%.

 

Only 13 of the 20 reviews so far have provided a rating. Based on those, final rating has two-thirds chance of falling between 7.1 and 7.8, or an 85% chance of exceeding 7.1.

 

All of this assumes random sampling of course - the impression I get from examining about 25-ish films from the past few years (top ten of 2015 and 2016 plus a few others) is that any non-random bias is small for most films, but there's a minority of films that deviate well outside random sampling expectations. (Three out of those 25, one that is borderline)

 

This is beautiful. Thank you

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17 minutes ago, Jason said:

Rating, or tomatometer score? No matter, I can do both.

 

At only 20 reviews in, the 90% confidence interval for the RT score is enormous - 81% to 98%, assuming that the final number of reviews is around 200. I don't even want to see what the 95% C.I. looks like.

 

There's about two-thirds chance the final RT score ends up being between 86% to 96%. If you're only interested in the lower limit, about an 85% chance the final rating is at least 86%.

 

Graph of the probability distribution for the final RT score looks like this:

 

zK8VJpz.png

Exercise caution in interpreting the P-values, there are about two bars shown for every percentage point. So the probability of exactly a 95% final rating is about 9%, not 4.5%.

 

Only 13 of the 20 reviews so far have provided a rating. Based on those, final rating has two-thirds chance of falling between 7.1 and 7.8, or an 85% chance of exceeding 7.1.

 

All of this assumes random sampling of course - the impression I get from examining about 25-ish films from the past few years (top ten of 2015 and 2016 plus a few others) is that any non-random bias is small for most films, but there's a minority of films that deviate well outside random sampling expectations. (Three out of those 25, one that is borderline)

Thanks! Out of curiosity, what type of distribution did you use?

Edited by elcaballero
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