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antovolk

John Wick: Chapter 2 | February 10, 2017 | Teaser Trailer on Page 8

By antovolk, in Box Office Discussion

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elcaballero Box Office Gold

elcaballero

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Jason said:

All of this assumes random sampling of course - the impression I get from examining about 25-ish films from the past few years (top ten of 2015 and 2016 plus a few others) is that any non-random bias is small for most films, but there's a minority of films that deviate well outside random sampling expectations. (Three out of those 25, one that is borderline)

What are the 3 films? Are they Disney? :lol:

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

What are the 3 films? Are they Disney? :lol:

 

Only one of them is - TFA. The other two are Minions and BvS. :unsure:

 

BvS is the one I'm a little nervous about revealing (should be safe in this thread, right?), since there are people convinced that critics decided to pile on after the first set of not-quite-as-bad reviews. But it's actually more likely that WB was being selective in early screenings, most films (at least in my sample) drop a quarter of their reviews by about 2-3 days in advance, but for BvS that threshold wasn't reached until the day of release.

Edited by Jason
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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
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2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Not to be that guy who says something so insane that turns whatever actually happens into a disappointment, but what if this goes the way of Kingsman and opens to something crazy like the high 30 millions?

 

Updated showtimes post escalation (there will be around 10% more showtimes added before Thursday)

 

Lego Batman: 162 showtimes

50 Shades: 120 showtimes

John Wick 2: 80 showtimes

 

Pets made 5.3M in previews, I would guess 4-5M for Lego Batman. Scratch that, I was comparing Summer opening to February, Trolls is a better comp, so maybe 2-3M. 50 Shades is hard to predict, it is definitely not generating as many showtimes or sold out showings as the first movie, maybe 5-6M?, Purge 3 had done 3.5M in previews, if John Wick manages that it will be in line for a weekend 10M higher than tracking at least. Again, comparing summer to Feb, better comp is Hacksaw Ridge which made 750k, maybe JW2 can do 2M.

 

For comparison (dumping all the data I have to date here to make it easy to find for future comps):

BvS/CW: 330-340 Showtimes

Suicide Squad: 300 showtimes

Apocalypse: 234 showtimes

Deadpool: 212 showtimes (not final count, this was the count on Monday before escalation)

Strange: 180 showtimes

Pets: 175 showtimes

Ant-Man: 156 showtimes

Star Trek Beyond: 145 showtimes

Trolls: 124 showtimes

ID4-2: 110 showtimes

Shallows: 79 showtimes

Tarzan: 110 showtimes

BFG: 80 showtimes

Purge: 75 showtimes

Ice Age: 120 showtimes

Lights Out: 76 showtimes

Ghostbusters: 125 showtimes

Warcraft: 102 showtimes

Conjuring 2: 87 showtimes

NYSM2: 76 showtimes

Hacksaw Ridge: 70 showtimes

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elcaballero Box Office Gold

elcaballero

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8 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

Just came back from an early screening of it at the Grove. 

 

By god. Better than the original in every way. Hard to see a single film on 2017 topping the action scenes in this one.

Great to hear! It's sounding like John Wick is shaping up to be the next great action franchise.

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picores Box Office Gold

picores

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, DAJK said:

Not to be that guy who says something so insane that turns whatever actually happens into a disappointment, but what if this goes the way of Kingsman and opens to something crazy like the high 30 millions?

 

I think this is what actually gonna happen. I'm expecting 35m+ OW and good legs to pass 100m.

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

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2 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

Just came back from an early screening of it at the Grove. 

 

By god. Better than the original in every way. Hard to see a single film on 2017 topping the action scenes in this one.

 

You're killing me lol. I cannot wait. I showed the first to my dad about 6 weeks ago, he was laughing because of the crazy body count, but he really liked it still. My girlfriend loved it, and she was reluctant, so that was my secret plan to make sure she saw the first so I can drag her to the second :P Now she's excited too. Reading these great reviews, I'm definitely super excited. I would probably say it's my most anticipated film so far in this early year. I was looking forward to Resident Evil's finale, but John Wick is still a better movie than any of those movies, so John Wick 2 is higher up on the "must see" list. 

 

I may not end up seeing this thing until Sunday though. Grr..

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