Is Furious 7 giving the board unrealistic expectations about future films?

[cory]

The prequels are a non-factor for anyone outside of the 18-30 range. Younger than that and Star Wars was never a phenomenon for them, older and the OT is still heavily enough ingrained for this to bring them back without thinking of the prequels. They've fixed their image problem completely in two trailers imo.

So no, $2 bn is not unrealistic.

Edited April 18, 2015 by cory

[Joel M]

I don't understand comments like this.

The Phantom Menace adjusts to 750 DOM and if you take the same % 883 OS. That alone is 1.6 WW.

This will have 3D and IMAX and China.

Do you really think this will do less then PM?

Does anyone ever look at the history of a franchise before making predictions?

So you think it will match the most anticipated movie in history just like that, easily?

[Ethan Hunt]

The simple answer to this question is, Yes

[theultimatebiu]

The answer is yes. TA2 will be huge but SW7 I honestly don't see it surpassing TA2.

[Noctis]

Noctis, you secretly want to sleep with me, don't you?

Only after sniffing some cocaine.

[Rudolf]

Phantom Menace is the #1 film of a franchise that is #1 of all time adjusted. PM isn't hurting the box office of SW7.

 

The 1st films of both trilogies are #5 and #6 all time un-adjusted DOM.  Neither had 3D or IMAX

the first 3 did not even have VHS or piracy

[AniNate]

I think people were going to go nuts for Star Wars when its trailer came out regardless of how F7 did. People seem to have a personal attachment to it akin to sports fanaticism.

[Avatree]

Yes, it's affecting some people's predictions of Avengers and Star Wars, a few other movies too. It's silly since looking at the hundreds of other films, rather than just one brand new one, would make more sense. I've never understood how someone can say "Well movie X is going to do 300M so movie Y must be going to do 400M"

[stuart360]

I agree with Noctis (not the tiresome Baumer bashing though). I meant to say this myself in another thread. Furious 7 really seems to be skewing peoples expectations, some people even saying 'everythings changed' but we won't know for sure until probably another years worth of blockbusters.

There was obviously something about Furious 7 that just clicked with the movie going audience, whether that was Paul Walkers death or just the fact that the audience for these films are just growing, whatever it is its too early to say whether times are changing or this is just one of those freak results we get from time to time.

[grey ghost]

Here's something to consider:

How much would the Phantom Menace have made if it were GOOD?

If SW7 gets enough repeat viewings it's going to be one of the biggest Star Wars movies.

[DAJK]

To an extent, yes. Just because FF7 over preformed, doesn't mean everything else will. True, people are expecting crazy numbers (myself included because its fun) but they were expecting crazy numbers before Furious 7.

[druv10]

SW7 was going to be big whether FF7 broke out or not. It's December release date is perfect, OW before Christmas and add in NY, it's going to have strong multiplier as long as it doesn't suck. Same applies OS as well. Disney marketing is second to none and off course, SW brand. Fanbase which is substantial is waiting for another movie and original cast to boot. I don't see how, it doesn't breakout. Only current hinderance is the ER but we still have 7+ months till the release and I doubt dollar continues to appreciate during this time frame. I really think 1.8B+ is possible for SW7 as long as it gets strong WOM. 

[vc2002]

Yes to you question, and yes to all the surprising mega breakouts.  Avatar and TA did the same thing.

[Noctis]

I think both AOU and SW7 stand a good chance at 2B

 

[Kalo]

I would love for SW7 to hit $2b.. but I just don't see that happening. I'm predicting $1.4b right now and $1.7b for Avengers. I do think Star Wars is going to be the highest grossing film domestically though. Furious 7's insane run has given me a little optimism but I'm keeping a lid on it.  

[Icicle]

China's become a BIG influence, but that doesn't mean every big film is going to do as much or more than F7. That's absurd.

 

I think this is the big question we don't know the answer to. With Transformers 4 there was a clear reason for it to do disproportionately well in China. FF7 is also doing disproportionately well in China (though not to the same extent as TF4) and there's no clear reason why. So the easiest conclusion to draw is that it actually isn't doing disproportionately well in China and China is going to start delivering $300M+ to most movies that perform like FF7 or better in the rest of the world.

 

If TA2 doesn't make $300M+ in China, then we'll know this isn't the case and will probably want to ask why FF7 performed so exceptionally well in China.

Edited April 18, 2015 by Icicle

[mahnamahna]

This ain't Phantom Menace. This is Star Wars after the prequels happened.

The fact that they're bringing back the original cast makes the prequels' impact minimal IMO. The teaser has everyone hyped, and Abrams will do a far better job than Lucas. 

 

The first entry of the OT and PT both did insane numbers. If Furious 7 does $1.4b-1.5b, Star Wars Episode VII should do that a bare minimum. It'll have more hype than Furious 7 come December. 

[AniNate]

I understand wanting to hope for the best, but how can anyone be so certain that Abrams will do much better than the guy who started it all?

[Shawn Robbins]

I'm actually on board with close to $2 billion for Star Wars... but I definitely agree F7 is probably setting expectations high for other things. There are several summer movies I think will generally perform under some of the higher expectations (partly because I expect some high profile titles to disappoint a bit). Then again, this is the year of the action movie... and summer's got a lot for the ladies. Interesting year all around.

 

Oh, and hi everyone.

[Empire]

I understand wanting to hope for the best, but how can anyone be so certain that Abrams will do much better than the guy who started it all?

Because in my opinion he hasn't made a bad movie yet. I trust him until he proves otherwise. I will say that I trusted Lucas before the PT and he failed, so you never know. Still, I am a huge Abrams fan, so I have faith.

As far as the point of the thread, I agree Furious 7 is increasing some people's BO predictions. However, some on here were already predicting huge #s for SW7 long before Furious 7 came out.