Weekend Estimates: Age of Adaline - 13.4M; Furious 7 - 18.3M; Ex Machina - 5.4M | Avengers - 201.2M OS OW (55% markets)

[Maxmoser3]

I'm still waiting for that summer 2015 box office forecast on Box Office Mojo

[CJohn]

I'm still waiting for that summer 2015 box office forecast on Box Office Mojo

Get a chair, you have a long wait ahead of you...

[ACSlater]

I'm still waiting for that summer 2015 box office forecast on Box Office Mojo

[Cochofles]

When we're talking about such small grosses, it absolutely does make sense. Now if we were talking big 40m+ grosses, then obviously that would be more than just nothing else out to see. But the fact of the matter is Home and Blart's grosses this weekend are small, and even if they had dropped 50% the actual change in gross wouldn't have been that big. Their small drops at small grosses are absolutely because there's nothing else out for that audience right now.

 

Prove it beyond a shdow of a doubt and beyond your own biases. What has your scientific methodology been to assert that?

Edited April 26, 2015 by cochofles

[Cochofles]

It's always the same ole BS. When a film doesn't strike our fancy, we love to find (or make up) excuses for its success: the weather, the options, the economy, whatever. Anything to undermine the success of a film we dislike. However, when it's something we love, we don't mind thinking that it has touched a nerve with the masses.

[Cochofles]

So say Paul Blart had dropped 50%. That would mean it would have grossed around $12m instead of $15m. Now you can't tell me that extra 3m didn't come from the fact that there are barely any other family options (especially new ones) and not because it's having great WOM.

 Yes, we can. Maybe we can't prove it, but you can't prove your assertion either.

[MovieMan89]

 Yes, we can. Maybe we can't prove it, but you can't prove your assertion either.

If legs start giving out next weekend once it actually has some family competition, then I'd say my assumption is pretty safely proven. And I'm sorry but anyone who thinks that lack of direct competition doesn't help movies doesn't pay attention at all to the box office. It's never the only factor, but it is definitely a factor in cases of weak direct competition. The only time it doesn't factor in at all is if a movie is so unappealing to the GA that no amount of lack of competition will cause them to go see it.

[DAJK]

Get a chair, you have a long wait ahead of you...

Wait, why?

[Ezen Baklattan]

Wow, it's such a shame

 

 

that there aren't any movies

 

 

that are breaking out

 

 

that critics actually liked

 

 

I think it's not the end of the world if Paul Blart or Home does well. Besides, we've been through this at least a hundred times before. Comedies and family films are much more critic-proof than other genres, but let's not pretend that those snobby critics are hopelessly out of touch with audiences.

 

I mean, for fuck's sake! Critics preferred FAST AND FURIOUS 7 to a Helen Mirren WWII-centered drama.

Edited April 26, 2015 by Spaghetti

[sfran43]

How many screens is it on??? I'm holding at 230M OW... Any higher than that is a bonus..

 

4,200 estimate according to BOM. Actual theater count will be updated Thursday. 

Edited April 26, 2015 by Queen Shar

[The Panda]

People need to realize a few things from both sides.

1.Competition doesn't necessarily mean something's going to do poorly, but it does mean the audience will need to like the film enough to choose it over the competition.

2.Some people like going to the movies for the sake of it and will pick what seems like the best option at the time for what they like. If Home and Blart are the only options for a family wanting to see a movie and they've already seen Home and they're going to a movie then they'll go see Blart.

3.Theres a reason films drop lightly when nothing big released that reason, and there's a reason films drop hard when there's a big blockbuster released or when a popular movies that's direct competition comes out.

4.No Competition doesn't necessarily mean success, but it can make it easier to be more successful than the film would have been. An audience will be more willing to give an on the fence movie a chance if there's nothing else out that they haven't seen. No Good Deed (or something like that) opened to over 20m last September when there had been no real wide releases for a few weeks. It wouldn't have made that money had it been in a more competitive market.

If Blart or Home still manage decent drops next week against the Avengers then you can say they hit a decent chord, but it's more likely both (especially Blart) have fairly substantial drop offs.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

I mean, for fuck's sake! Critics preferred FAST AND FURIOUS 7 to a Helen Mirren WWII-centered drama.

 

That's not quite how it works. Sure, one has a higher RT score than the other, but most critics are judging Furious 7 against other action franchise movies, and Woman in Gold as Oscar bait that ended up coming out in the spring (which happens 9 times out of 10 b/c the movie couldn't hack it during awards season). So all they expect from the F&F movie is some fun action with heart, but with "Helen Mirren Fights a Government and Nazi Ghosts for Stolen Family Art", the critics are at least partially going into it wondering why the studio thought it couldn't hang with The Imitation Game and Still Alice and movies like that, last year, and looking for its supposed flaws. The Nazi art drama suffers from the tyranny of expectations, basically.

Edited April 26, 2015 by BoxOfficeChica

[MovieGuyKyle17]

GO SEE EX MACINA. THIS FILM NEEDS TO BE SEEN!!

[kayumanggi]

A lot of kids get excited just about going to a movie. Especially if they get it in their head they want to go. They don't care what they're seeing in that case, just that they're getting to go. At least speaking for the kids I've been around and myself as a kid. Hell, even as an adult I get antsy if I haven't gone to the theater in a while. I want to see something, I don't even care that much anymore what it is. Some of us love going to the movies.

 

And again, no one twist my words to think that I'm saying kids never have specific movies they do or don't want to see. Obviously they do. They're just are far more lenient about it, especially under the age of 8. Going to the theater is sometimes a fun experience/treat for them regardless of the movie.

 

They don't decide for themselves though.

[kayumanggi]

Overall, Furious 7 added $69.7 million this weekend to bring its international total to just over $1 billion.

 

Wow. I thought TA: AOU would hit it hard.

[Avatree]

Overall, Furious 7 added $69.7 million this weekend to bring its international total to just over $1 billion.

 

Wow. I thought TA: AOU would hit it hard.

Age of Ultron is not out in China.

[kayumanggi]

Age of Ultron is not out in China.

 

How much did F&F7 make in China this weekend?

Edited April 27, 2015 by kayumanggi

[Avatree]

How much did F&F7 make in China this weekend?

77M through the past 7 days, I can't find any info on how much this weekend in particular.

[Heat Vision]

I think F7 ends their run when AOU comes in

[movieboner]

Furious 7 has like another 4 months at the theater, so we won't know how much profits it'll end up with. This weekend it did $18.2 mil with a gross of $320 mil. Judging by other $18 mil openers, furious 7 has at least another $55 mil - $65 mil at the domestic box office. Avengers: AOU won't hurt it that bad, since Furious 7 won't be losing many theaters next weekend. For the worldwide gross, it's hard to predict, but u can expect another $100 mil before it finishes. Well, it could make more.