WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

[Elessar]

Fri (+147.7%) $21,338,000

Sat (+58.7%) $33,862,000

Sun (-35%) $22,003,000

Edited May 10, 2015 by Elessar

[a2k]

IM3, Thor 2, CAWS all came after TA1. It's not as if TA1 came and then TA2 with nothing in between. It's like releasing movie, then having 3 spin-offs and then the sequel. So the bo had to take some hit. In what other world does IM3 get 400m+ after IM2's performance. TA1's goodwill has been spreading around for a while. TA2 was gonna normalize stuff.

[jb007]

IM3, Thor 2, CAWS all came after TA1. It's not as if TA1 came and then TA2 with nothing in between. It's like releasing movie, then having 3 spin-offs and then the sequel. So the bo had to take some hit. In what other world does IM3 get 400m+ after IM2's performance. TA1's goodwill has been spreading around for a while. TA2 was gonna normalize stuff.

This. 

[Heat Vision]

I see those estimates increasing again.

[Maxmoser3]

Man Avengers didn't get 80 this weekend? That sucks, anyway expected performance for Hot Pursuit excellent hold for Adaline dropping under 10% and a decent increase for both Ex Machina and Woman In Gold

[The Stingray]

Y'all gone listen to Stingray now. See I been around. From the Big Apple to the Big Orange, I know the score.

[sfran43]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$77,203,000	-59.6%	4,276	-	$18,055	$312,589,000	$250	2
2	N	Hot Pursuit	WB	$13,300,000	-	3,003	-	$4,429	$13,300,000	$35	1
3	3	The Age of Adaline	LGF	$5,600,000	-9.7%	3,070	+79	$1,824	$31,529,000	-	3
4	2	Furious 7	Uni.	$5,272,000	-20.7%	3,004	-301	$1,755	$338,420,000	$190	6
5	4	Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2	Sony	$5,190,000	-11.7%	3,201	-347	$1,621	$58,075,000	$30	4
6	7	Ex Machina	A24	$3,470,000	+51.8%	2,004	+725	$1,732	$15,722,000	-	5
7	5	Home (2015)	Fox	$3,000,000	-13.6%	2,495	-357	$1,202	$162,116,000	$135	7
8	10	Woman in Gold	Wein.	$1,652,000	+2.9%	1,080	-46	$1,530	$26,978,000	$11	6
9	6	Cinderella (2015)	BV	$1,574,000	-42.7%	1,034	-377	$1,522	$196,166,000	$95	9
10	8	Unfriended	Uni.	$1,412,000	-36.1%	1,701	-520	$830	$30,943,000	$1	4
11	9	The Longest Ride	Fox	$1,300,000	-23.7%	1,464	-651	$888	$35,211,000	$34	5
12	11	Monkey Kingdom	BV	$1,070,000	-12.1%	1,431	-301	$748	$14,181,000	-	4
-	12	Get Hard	WB	$1,050,000	-11.7%	955	-510	$1,099	$87,824,000	$40	7
-	22	Far from the Madding Crowd	FoxS	$761,000	+361.3%	99	+89	$7,687	$1,001,000	-	2
-	13	The Divergent Series: Insurgent	LG/S	$745,000	-18.5%	843	-448	$884	$127,593,000	$110	8
-	14	Little Boy	ORF	$596,000	-32.2%	775	-270	$769	$5,235,000	-	3
-	N	The D Train	IFC	$469,000	-	1,009	-	$465	$469,000	-	1
-	17	While We're Young	A24	$283,000	-35.7%	258	-116	$1,097	$6,893,000	-	7
-	20	Kingsman: The Secret Service	Fox	$235,000	+19.2%	289	-27	$813	$127,209,000	$81	13
-	N	5 Flights Up	Focus	$234,000	-	87	-	$2,690	$234,000	-	1
-	N	Noble	Asp.	$209,000	-	175	-	$1,194	$209,000	-	1
-	41	Welcome to Me	Alc	$188,000	+394.7%	133	+131	$1,414	$236,000	-	2
-	23	The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water	Par.	$155,000	-4.2%	214	-21	$724	$162,508,000	$74	14
-	N	Maggie	RAtt.	$131,000	-	79	-	$1,658	$131,000	-	1
-	19	Danny Collins	BST	$128,000	-41.5%	166	-38	$771	$5,343,000	$10	8
-	27	The Salt of the Earth	SPC	$87,000	+1.2%	80	-	$1,088	$829,000	-	7
-	21	True Story	FoxS	$80,000	-55.8%	127	-169	$630	$4,582,000	-	4
-	25	It Follows	RTWC	$70,000	-29.4%	112	-59	$625	$14,425,000	-	9
-	31	Felix and Meira	Osci.	$65,000	+1.9%	39	+14	$1,667	$214,000	-	4
-	32	Wild Tales	SPC	$58,000	-7.9%	44	-2	$1,318	$2,711,000	-	12
-	36	The DUFF	LGF	$40,000	-11.3%	80	-26	$500	$34,019,000	$8.5	12
-	N	Saint Laurent	SPC	$36,000	-	4	-	$9,000	$36,000	-	1
-	38	What We Do in the Shadows	U/P	$32,000	-17.0%	32	-19	$1,000	$3,333,000	-	13
-	N	The Seven Five	IFC	$17,000	-	2	-	$8,500	$17,000	-	1
-	58	Child 44	LG/S	$15,000	+58.4%	66	+42	$227	$1,200,000	-	4
-	N	I Am Big Bird	Trib.	$10,000	-	1	-	$10,000	$13,000	-	1
-	74	The Hunting Ground	RTWC	$8,000	+162.9%	6	-4	$1,333	$366,000	-	11
-	46	Adult Beginners	RTWC	$6,000	-78.3%	20	-34	$300	$91,800	-	3
-	56	Blackbird	Imag.	$1,000	-92.1%	5	-4	$200	$75,000	-	3
TOTAL (39 MOVIES):				$125,752,000	-46.0%	33,463	-2,395	$3,758

[cory]

Food for thought: The MCU has only now passed the lifetime attendance of the Harry Potter series with AoU.

[sfran43]

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<< PREVIOUS	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 312002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rank* Title Friday 5/8 (Estimates) Saturday 5/9 (Estimates) Sunday 5/10 (Estimates) Monday 5/11 1 AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON Buena Vista 4,276 $21,338,000 +147.7% / $4,990 $256,993,000 / 8 $33,862,000 +58.7% / $7,919 $290,855,000 / 9 $22,003,000 -35% / $5,146 $312,589,000 / 10 N/A 2 HOT PURSUIT Warner Bros. 3,003 $4,200,000 -- / $1,399 $4,200,000 / 1 $4,915,000 +17% / $1,637 $9,115,000 / 2 $4,185,000 -14.9% / $1,394 $13,300,000 / 3 N/A 3 THE AGE OF ADALINE Lionsgate 3,070 $1,530,000 +154.1% / $512 $27,459,000 / 15 $2,180,000 +42.5% / $729 $29,639,000 / 16 $1,890,000 -13.3% / $616 $31,529,000 / 17 N/A 4 PAUL BLART: MALL COP 2 Sony / Columbia 3,201 $1,235,000 +292.8% / $386 $54,120,000 / 22 $2,235,000 +81% / $698 $56,355,000 / 23 $1,720,000 -23% / $537 $58,075,000 / 24 N/A 5 FURIOUS 7 Universal 3,004 $1,400,000 +182.9% / $466 $334,548,000 / 36 $2,325,000 +66.1% / $774 $336,873,000 / 37 $1,510,000 -35.1% / $503 $338,420,000 / 38 N/A 6 EX MACHINA A24 2,004 $966,000 +166.1% / $482 $13,216,000 / 29 $1,500,000 +55.3% / $749 $14,716,000 / 30 $1,125,000 -25% / $561 $15,722,000 / 31 N/A 7 HOME (2015) Fox 2,495 $615,000 +221.2% / $246 $159,731,000 / 43 $1,315,000 +113.8% / $527 $161,046,000 / 44 $1,070,000 -18.6% / $429 $162,116,000 / 45 N/A 8 WOMAN IN GOLD Weinstein Company 1,080 $374,000 +93.4% / $346 $25,700,000 / 38 $710,000 +89.8% / $657 $26,410,000 / 39 $568,000 -20% / $526 $26,978,000 / 40 N/A 9 CINDERELLA (2015) Buena Vista 1,034 $440,000 +221.6% / $426 $195,032,000 / 57 $725,000 +64.8% / $701 $195,757,000 / 58 $409,000 -43.6% / $396 $196,166,000 / 59 N/A 10 THE LONGEST RIDE Fox 1,464 $385,000 +144.3% / $263 $34,295,000 / 29 $530,000 +37.7% / $362 $34,825,000 / 30 $385,000 -27.4% / $263 $35,211,000 / 31 N/A 11 UNFRIENDED Universal 1,701 $442,000 +148.8% / $260 $29,973,000 / 22 $650,000 +47.1% / $382 $30,623,000 / 23 $345,000 -46.9% / $203 $30,943,000 / 24 N/A 12 MONKEY KINGDOM Buena Vista 1,431 $320,000 +84.7% / $224 $13,431,000 / 22 $477,000 +49.1% / $333 $13,908,000 / 23 $273,000 -42.8% / $191 $14,181,000 / 24 N/A - THE D TRAIN IFC 1,009 $160,000 -- / $159 $160,000 / 1 $160,000 -- / $159 $320,000 / 2 $100,000 -37.5% / $99 $469,000 / 3 N/A
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[Fake]

Fri (+147.7%) $21,338,000

Sat (+58.7%) $33,862,000

Sun (-35%) $22,003,000

Saturday again decreased from Rth's estimates..... it's getting more and more depressing.

Really hope Sunday hold is better.

[Fake]

Fri (+147.7%) $21,338,000

Sat (+58.7%) $33,862,000

Sun (-35%) $22,003,000

Saturday again decreased from Rth's estimates..... it's getting more and more depressing.

Really hope Sunday hold is better.

[sfran43]

I wonder if Sunday's Actual will increase or decrease over estimate #'s?

[Alpha]

LOL at The D Train. Didn't know what IFC was thinking when they decided on a nationwide release.

[Elessar]

it's getting more and more depressing.

 

On the contrary!

[Cynosure]

On the contrary!

 

:D

[5upe5]

IM3, Thor 2, CAWS all came after TA1. It's not as if TA1 came and then TA2 with nothing in between. It's like releasing movie, then having 3 spin-offs and then the sequel. So the bo had to take some hit. In what other world does IM3 get 400m+ after IM2's performance. TA1's goodwill has been spreading around for a while. TA2 was gonna normalize stuff.

Great point. I think we will see less ridiculous highs of TA and IM3...and more of the rest of the Marvel movies hit a "Sweet Spot"

in that 200-300 million range (Domestic) and (300-500) WW. Basically churned out hits that will eventually taper off and International numbers will inflate while the domestic market loses steam. (Like Spiderman)

 

That would really balance out and level any perceived shortfalls of the mega blockbusters.

[grim22]

Saturday again decreased from Rth's estimates..... it's getting more and more depressing.

Really hope Sunday hold is better.

The movie's run is weird. On an absolute scale, the numbers are good, even great. But the route to the final numbers is a roller coaster.

Last week, we started off at 87M and 85-90M before Disney themselves stoked the 100M OD fire and all publications followed suit. This led to the actual 84.5M being seen as a disappointment. Pretty much been the MO of the early numbers to actuals since.

[The Panda]

A 170m fall would almost require a WWW thread IMO.

No it wouldn't. It'd still be the second highest grossing Marvel film and the first was a box office phenomenon. Its a precedent for sequels to major phenomenons to have large drop offs no matter the quality. Just because it's not a phenomenon doesn't mean the gross is huge, we just all had too high expectations (I'll admit I fell into the incorrect thinking lightning could be caught twice)

Examples

Jurassic Park to Lost Word (Adjusts 700m to 229m)

Star Wars to Empire Strikes Back (adjusts 1.1b to 630m, but the number of the first is lower due to re-runs technically either way still huge drop in attendance)

Raiders of the Lost Ark to Indy 2 (adjusts 620m to 430m)

Phantom Menace to Attack of the Clones (689m to 422m)

Jaws to Jaws 2 (1b to 270m)

The Dark Knight to The Dark Knight Rises (603m to 467m)

Batman to Batman Returns (511m to 318m)

Pirates 2 to Pirates 3 (525m to 365m)

The Godfather to Godfather 2 (638m to 206m)

Shrek 2 to Shrek 3 (576m to 381m)

The same thing will likely happen to Avatar 2 and everyone will flip out crying flop when it "only" does 400 or 500m or so.

Really, nothing's gone wrong, Avengers 2 is behaving "normally".

Edited May 10, 2015 by The Panda

[Elessar]

 Pretty much been the MO of the early numbers to actuals since.

 

modus operandi?

[lab276]

IM3, Thor 2, CAWS all came after TA1. It's not as if TA1 came and then TA2 with nothing in between. It's like releasing movie, then having 3 spin-offs and then the sequel. So the bo had to take some hit. In what other world does IM3 get 400m+ after IM2's performance. TA1's goodwill has been spreading around for a while. TA2 was gonna normalize stuff.

Why didn't we see it sooner though?