Jurassic World Weekend Thread | Official Est. 204.6M | 208.8M - Actuals

[grey ghost]

If anyone suggested a coupledays ago that JW would come close to the highest OW of all time they would've been laughed of the internet.

Why did no one see this coming? Did we underestimate the appeal towards kids and their gen X parents?

[PDC1987]

Why I think IO has 60m+ potential. It and JW can easily coexist

He means it will be the first Pixar film to miss #1 on OW.

[newknicksfan]

WOW, I remember people doubting how huge this movie could be, I and many others just said look at the WW gross of the original...  the guy with the Jeff Goldblum avatar is laughing at the doubters right now. 

Edited June 13, 2015 by Max De Costa

[BK007]

I think people going mad about Universal's sequel year (from 50 Shades to PP to Furious 8 to JW2 to DM3) and about Batman Vs Superman and maybe even Star Wars, have to have some common sense.

 

Yes, if the product is actually good and well marketed, some of those could yet still increase or hold on to most of its audience, but if Ultron, TDKR, Spider Man etc. have taught us anything, is that those movies that break out to a phenomenal extent on the first or second go around, will lose some of that audience next time. There's something called a phenomenon and no franchise has ever recreated lightning in a bottle because that is what it is. It will take extenuating factors for such to happen again.

 

Secondly, Jurassic World, as someone else also pointed out, took nostalgia and a very, very blockbuster friendly and casual audience concept and even then, caught fire like no other. I saw Batman Vs Superman trailer with Spy this evening, and guess what? It looked boring. More of the same. I don't care about what goes on between two superheroes. Marvel got there first with their mashups and it simply is boring. Christian Bale isn't even Batman. The Marvel bubble has taken a pounding. 

 

Star Wars does have the potential. Its fanbase stretches generations, its fans continue to grow and spawn furiously and even if the prequel trilogy was excrement, loads of kids loved it at the time. It also skews more casual then superhero movies though not as casual as dinosaurs in a theme park. December will hold it back, but I'm sure it will be the first $100m opener for the month. Beyond that, let's not get ahead of ourselves with $100m ODs and OW records. The last thing to keep in mind is historical trends or actual demographics. Every movie can exhaust its demographic. An easy example would be book franchises. Harry Potter, Twilight etc. all reached maximum at one point or another, whilst superheroes and Pirates and dinosaurs and Jedis all have greater appeal, they too all will have a limit of people who will not see these movies. What I mean to say is, say Star Wars makes $200m OW, December trends says it will have great legs, at least 4x or so, that gets it to $800m. Is that even possible? It may be or it may actually be impossible. Without 3D, without a quarter of a day of Thursday previews roped into Fridays, $100m is impossible. No film has ever made $70m in day business ever. There is a limit. Let's not ignore the reality.

 

And with that dose of realism, if anyone bothered, great opening day for JW. Haven't seen it, hopefully will see it this week, and I'm glad that superheroes have been dethroned in such fashion. 

[baumer]

I wonder if the sequel will pull an all-star Jurassic cast like Fast Five did.

 

Neill, Goldblum, Dern, Pratt, Howard, even the kids from JP1 all grown up too in a single movie would be glorious.

 

Call Spielberg.

[MrPink]

I like how Lucas Black was in Furious 7 and thought he was going to be in the smash hit of the year, and told Brian Tee this:

 

 

And now Brian Tee just stormed back with Jurassic World. Suck it!

[druv10]

More I think about this number more it gets crazy. It had 64.4M proper Friday easily surpassing TA1's record of 62.1M. OD was far from frontloaded. It's previews were lower share than TA1's midnight number. I really think OW record is going down.

[Noctis]

American Sniper

This one

Transformers 2

 

and the biggest one I can recall is New Moon, which pretty much no one had doing 80 mill OW.

 

That's bullshit. PLENTY of people had it doing 80m-100m, but no one predicted more than 110m. 

[Chaz]

For the first time, I think she had sex appeal in the movie. I've never looked at her that way before, but once she goes all Commando in the film, she's quite appealing.

That's because the movie treats her like a woman who needs a good ole dick down by Chris Pratt. Then she'll loosen up and be good to go!

Depressing.

[kayumanggi]

The movie has been trending worldwide for more than 24 hours. Wow.

[filmscholar]

TA1's 18% would be a good Sunday hold for JP4 though. TA1 didn't have a NBA Finals game or Game of Thrones season finale on its Sunday, so those are two things that could keep JP4 from having a chance at something crazy like TDK's 8% hold. I would guess Universal will estimate a 20% drop tomorrow morning.

 

I think those are two big television events for sure but it's not the Supernova of Entertainment that "Avengers 2" had on Saturday.    The Sunday Drop is important but I'm wondering how it holds today.  So many reports on social media of it being Sold Out so many people are going to try today to see it for sure. 

[KATCH-2D2]

Let's play the game being conservative:

 

80m Friday

59m Saturday

47m Sunday

21m Monday

19m Tuesday

14m Wednesday

12m Thursday

----------------------

21m Friday

28m Saturday

25m Sunday (Father's Day)

 

So that would be 326m after its second weekend, conservatively spoken, of course we should talk about 500m here...

 

Let's do it again being less conservative:

 

82m Friday

65m Saturday

55m Sunday

27m Monday

24m Tuesday

18m Wednesday

16m Thursday

-------------

30m Friday

40m Saturday

36m Sunday

 

 

That would be 393m. I guess the questions would be answered then.

I'd love the second scenario but with IO opening is there a room for a 100m movie in the same weekend?

[theultimatebiu]

Yep, good post.  I see what you mean.

 

But from personal memory, I remember having some heated discussions with Shawn, as close as 2 or 3 days away from the OD and he was still trying to convince me that NM wouldn't come close to 100 mill.  I only remember this because I opened a NM over 100 mill OW thread and for the first two months of it, I was basically a pariah.

 

So we just have different recollections of it's opening...prior to it opening.  

 

Oh I was here that weekend. We were all shocked. I thought Twilight OW was the peak of the franchise but when those numbers came in everyone went into crazy mode. I think Eclipse was more shocking for how unpredicted it was. The potential was there but because it was a female driven franchise we all ignored the signs.

Edited June 13, 2015 by theultimatebiu

[Blankments]

I'd love the second scenario but with IO opening is there a room for a 100m movie in the same weekend?

Inside Out was never gonna open at 100M.

[FTF]

Inside Out is fucked out of #1 next weekend. Even with a 60% drop from $200m, JP4 would gross $80m on the second weekend.

Has there ever been two $65+m movies in the same weekend? I say that happens.

Edit: forgot about Shrek 2 and TDAT, so let's make it first with two $70m movies!

Edited June 13, 2015 by FTF

[baumer]

That's bullshit. PLENTY of people had it doing 80m-100m, but no one predicted more than 110m. 

 

No it's not bullshit.  Not many had it doing 100 mill at all.  I should know I had the fucking thread for it Noctis.  So kiss off.

[newknicksfan]

THG: MJ II could be 4th.

 

hopefully it's the The Martian, a man can dream can't he? lol Or actually, BOND for a billion again.  Great year for box office. 

[MrPink]

I think those are two big television events for sure but it's not the Supernova of Entertainment that "Avengers 2" had on Saturday.    The Sunday Drop is important but I'm wondering how it holds today.  So many reports on social media of it being Sold Out so many people are going to try today to see it for sure. 

 

Well TA1 had less competition than JW so theaters were probably able to shift screens on the fly a little more easily, so it's possible we're still seeing a lot of demand not being satisfied through Friday and Saturday for JW.

Edited June 13, 2015 by MrPink

[grey ghost]

Get Goldblum and Neill in the sequel.

This is genius and I can see it happening at this point.

[Asyulus]

IO will open at around $80m.