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WrathOfHan

Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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Webslinger Box Office Gold

Webslinger

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Posted

Big but still quite underwhelming for Mockingjay. A nine-figure opening is huge no matter how you slice it, but to see a well-received franchise drop as precipitously year-to-year as this one has since Catching Fire's opening two years ago is alarming, to say the least. I'd place the largest portion of the blame on the direction of the source material. Once the games end at the conclusion of Catching Fire, the proceedings paradoxically become less exciting at a time when the stakes are supposedly at their highest. Both of the Mockingjay films felt like non-events compared to the huge hype that went into the first two films, and the more casual moviegoers who followed the hype with those films bailed on the finale. Nevertheless, though, we're still talking about a female-led action franchise in which each entry opened over $100 million, which is an extraordinary and unprecedented accomplishment.

 

Spectre had a large fall, as expected. Its hold over Thanksgiving should go a long way toward determining whether it will surpass $200 million, but I'm betting on it falling under the milestone.

 

The Peanuts Movie's relative lack of staying power has been bizarre. It's still eyeing a finish in the vicinity of $130 million, which isn't bad, but is also much less than I would have expected after its opening weekend.

 

The Night Before is off to a weak start, but its subgenre - R-rated Christmas films - isn't exactly littered with triumphs (however, even with the passage of twelve years, I still can't figure out how something as dark and potentially audience-alienating as Bad Santa made $60 million).

 

The Secret in Their Eyes also had a weak opening, but at least it didn't suffer as badly as other adult-targeted bombs from the last several months.

 

Spotlight had a solid expansion. It won't explode as it goes wider, but the Oscar buzz and correspondingly strong audience reception guarantee that the film will be in it for the long haul.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

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Fall 2015 has been strange indeed. If it is true that TFA has more or less sucked all the hype from other movies, than what is the excuse when it "only" opens to 200M? JW didn't suck all the hype away from other films...

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water Box Office Gold

water

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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fall 2015 has been strange indeed. If it is true that TFA has more or less sucked all the hype from other movies, than what is the excuse when it "only" opens to 200M? JW didn't suck all the hype away from other films...

 

it's virtually impossible for TFA to open to less than 250m at this point

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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fall 2015 has been strange indeed. If it is true that TFA has more or less sucked all the hype from other movies, than what is the excuse when it "only" opens to 200M? JW didn't suck all the hype away from other films...

 

$200m opening in December would be incredible. 

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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24 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Fall 2015 has been strange indeed. If it is true that TFA has more or less sucked all the hype from other movies, than what is the excuse when it "only" opens to 200M? JW didn't suck all the hype away from other films...

200M will be done by Thursday night at 7 PM in pre-sales alone. It will sell another 100M worth of tickets during the weekend. 300M OW minimum. 

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

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Don't really have much to say about Mockingjay - Part 2's number. It is what it is. We'll see how it holds over the Thanksgiving holiday.

 

The Night Before did okay, I suppose. Christmas movies that don't aim at families typically do comparatively soft business. Secret In Their Eyes did alright all things considered.

 

Spectre continues to have so-so staying power, unsurprisingly. I wish The Peanuts Movie was holding better.

 

Spotlight is still doing very well. Brooklyn is also doing great an expansion as well. I plan on seeing both of these over Thanksgiving weekend.

 

Carol's off to a pretty decent start. This is obviously a movie that's going to do much better in arthouse areas than anywhere else so a slow rollout is for the best since Oscar buzz is going to be what carries it far. Legend did alright, although it's obviously doomed when it goes wide December 11.

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75Live Global Phenomenon

75Live

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2 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I'm sitting in the cinema now to witness the end of a journey 

 

Don't worry, there will be a other Bond movie with or without Craig ;) 

 

As for MJ2, there is no way that they will let this be under $100 mil, no matter what they have to do to keep it there.  Not saying they will have to do anything but if they do have to , they will 

Edited by 75live
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