Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[George Parr]

4 minutes ago, James said:

It actually depends on the movie. FB had a 3-day opening in the UK. RO had a 4-day opening and so on. The longer the OW, the smaller the multiplier, because of already burnt demand. For these markets to hit 500m, they would need an overall 3.7x multi. Thake the UK for example. With it's opening it is expected to do around 65-70m there. That-s a 3-3.3x multi. And that only had a 4-daty opening. The markets which had 5-day opening won;t do anywhere close to a 3x multi. You see what I mean?

 

No, because Rogue One didn't have any special or unusual starts. Maybe it had an additional day in the UK, I don't know about that, but everywhere else it followed the usual proceedings. Weekends in Germany are always counting four days, weekends in France always counting five, and so on. The multiplier could (not guarenteed either) in some cases be lower if the opening counted more days than following weekends do, but that simply isn't the case here.

 

That doesn't even take into consideration that markets behave differently in terms of legs. Japan is usually very leggy, movies don't really have any trouble reaching multipliers of four or more in Germany or France either.

[terrestrial]

11 minutes ago, George Parr said:

These markets always have 4-5 day weekends, because that's how releases work there. In France, the numbers for the "weekend" are always Wednesday to Sunday, in Germany it's always Thursday to Sunday, and so on. I don't see how that is supposed to impact the holds.

 

Agree

 

General:

I think the WOM, the changed genre (as I assume, still haven't seen it), the weather depending where (here it snows since today), ... and that we have less public holidays this year at Christmas, holdovers, local films,...and... might play into it. As usual.

The changed genre / age skewing / certain details I heard is, what makes it in my POV over the average difficult to get a feel for it, for it being a part of a franchise.

 

I can imagine it going both ways, even it going both ways in ever country in another way (direction of change and percentage)

 

 

 

[jb007]

@George ParrRogue One and TFA both had 4 day weekends in the UK. So no issues there.

[MattW]

Without China:

Movie - opening - total

SuicS - 133.3 - 420.5

DeadP - 132.2 - 419.5

BvS  -  199.4 - 447.1

 

Add in all territories but subtract Korea:

SuicS - 137.1

DeadP - 149.8

 

With the holidays I think 500 is likely from these markets.  Here's my rough model:

Dec 18: 135.5

Dec 25: 250 (+115)

Jan 1: 370 (+120)

Jan 8: 425 (+55)

Jan 15: 455 (+30)

Jan 22: 472 (+17)

Jan 29: 482 (+10)

Rest: ~500

China+Korea > 100
Total: 600+

[Agafin]

18 minutes ago, James said:

It actually depends on the movie. FB had a 3-day opening in the UK. RO had a 4-day opening and so on. The longer the OW, the smaller the multiplier, because of already burnt demand. For these markets to hit 500m, they would need an overall 3.7x multi. Thake the UK for example. With it's opening it is expected to do around 65-70m there. That-s a 3-3.3x multi. And that only had a 4-daty opening. The markets which had 5-day opening won;t do anywhere close to a 3x multi. You see what I mean?

That's not true. TFA had 4 and 5 days OW in France, Germany ans Spain ans y et got multis over 4 in all those countries. In Italy and The UK, it had 5 and 4 day OW respectively and ended up with 3.7-3.5 multis.

 

European markets rypically have better legs than DOM, especially with holidays.

[hw64]

5 minutes ago, Agafin said:

That's not true. TFA had 4 and 5 days OW in France, Germany ans Spain ans y et got multis over 4 in all those countries. In Italy and The UK, it had 5 and 4 day OW respectively and ended up with 3.7-3.5 multis.

 

European markets rypically have better legs than DOM, especially with holidays.

 

And with that reasoning last year, you predicted something like $1.2-$1.3b as the floor for TFA's gross overseas (without China!).

[pepsa]

33 minutes ago, James said:

It actually depends on the movie. FB had a 3-day opening in the UK. RO had a 4-day opening and so on. The longer the OW, the smaller the multiplier, because of already burnt demand. For these markets to hit 500m, they would need an overall 3.7x multi. Thake the UK for example. With it's opening it is expected to do around 65-70m there. That-s a 3-3.3x multi. And that only had a 4-daty opening. The markets which had 5-day opening won;t do anywhere close to a 3x multi. You see what I mean?

 

Belgium had a 5 day opening, and it will do a 3x + multi

My best gues would be 3.5-4 multi just like the hobbit or TFA

Edited December 18, 2016 by pepsa

[FantasticBeasts]

I don't think it will reach 600m OS. 550 seems good though,,

[FantasticBeasts]

It will be more fan-driven than TFA and thus more front-loaded. China and SK together should do around 100m though. From those markets, 420-450m must be reasonable considering the sstrong competition. SW hasn't got the power that it has dom in OS markets. Actually, apart from the big markets thaat follow the Dom trends I believe that it is not so relevant in many asian and small european countries...

[Fullbuster]

13 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

It will be more fan-driven than TFA and thus more front-loaded. China and SK together should do around 100m though. From those markets, 420-450m must be reasonable considering the sstrong competition. SW hasn't got the power that it has dom in OS markets. Actually, apart from the big markets thaat follow the Dom trends I believe that it is not so relevant in many asian and small european countries...

 

I disagree, it will be LESS frontloaded. Many people are interested but want to take their time because it's not a sequel. I'm one of them : I'll watch it in 2 week despite being interested in it and despite seeing TFA during the OW

[Fullbuster]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice  3 minutes ago

ROGUE ONE scored $135.5M overseas. UK ($21M) GER ($12M) OZ ($11M) FRA ($10M) JPN ($8M) RUS ($5.6M) BRZ ($5.3M) MEX ($5.1M) ESP ($4.5M)

 

With $10m France is doing well enough

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

And with that reasoning last year, you predicted something like $1.2-$1.3b as the floor for TFA's gross overseas (without China!).

 

 

Oh, you are THAT guy from reddit? Lol okay.

 

And no, my overprediction of TFA from last year was because I compared its Holiday weekdays to DH2 summer weekdays, which wasn't an apt comparison. That, and the fact that TFA had average late legs. The post you quoted however, is factually correct. All of those multis are indeed what TFA got and there's no better comparison to RO than TFA.

[FantasticBeasts]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

 

I disagree, it will be LESS frontloaded. Many people are interested but want to take their time because it's not a sequel. I'm one of them : I'll watch it in 2 week despite being interested in it and despite seeing TFA during the OW

That may be part true (although I think most SW fans are so die-hard that they would rather die than not watch a SW movie on OW). But I think the apeal on the GA will be extremely lower than TFA...

[TommyA10]

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

It will be more fan-driven than TFA and thus more front-loaded. China and SK together should do around 100m though. From those markets, 420-450m must be reasonable considering the sstrong competition. SW hasn't got the power that it has dom in OS markets. Actually, apart from the big markets thaat follow the Dom trends I believe that it is not so relevant in many asian and small european countries...

Croatia here, and I can tell you SW is a monster here (not that our gross is really relevant to the whole picture).

TFA roughly had 250k admissions here. For comparison's sake, DH2 had 110k, Avengers didn't even break 100k, Spectre was huge with 145k, TDKR got to 125k, DOS and the other Hobbit movies were massively popular here and managed 190k.

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, TommyA10 said:

Croatia here, and I can tell you SW is a monster here (not that our gross is really relevant to the whole picture).

TFA roughly had 250k admissions here. For comparison's sake, DH2 had 110k, Avengers didn't even break 100k, Spectre was huge with 145k, TDKR got to 125k, DOS and the other Hobbit movies were massively popular here and managed 190k.

That's great but I think it's one example. I also have roots from a not-so-big european country and at least from my experience, SW is nowhere near as big as HP or Lotr..

I may be wrong but that's what I feel...

[TigerPaw]

5 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

@TigerPaw

 

 

 

 

 

So what exactly put them to sleep? 

 

They grew up watching Jet Li/Donnie Yen fighting on the big screen. Both are wushu world champs, weapon experts...

 

And then they saw lightsaber fights for the first time.. which bore them to sleep.

[Valonqar]

@TigerPaw I can totally understand. Wushu fights can't be topped so glowing sticks but way inferior choreography will not impress anyone who grew up on a superior badassery. 

[Aristis]

If that:

The bottom half of the Top 10 includes Russia ($5.6M), Brazil ($5.3M), Mexico ($5.1M), Spain ($4.5M) and Sweden ($3.5M and 66% of the market).

 

And that:

Sweden

Disney

12/16/15

$3,945,455

18.5%

$21,346,653

7/20/16

 

Is correct, I think we have a country where RO didn't fall much from TFA. That would be just 11% down.

 

SW7 was huge there and made $21M with a multi better than 5x (according to BOM).

[Poseidon]

3 hours ago, Aristis said:

If that:

The bottom half of the Top 10 includes Russia ($5.6M), Brazil ($5.3M), Mexico ($5.1M), Spain ($4.5M) and Sweden ($3.5M and 66% of the market).

 

And that:

Sweden

Disney

12/16/15

$3,945,455

18.5%

$21,346,653

7/20/16

 

Is correct, I think we have a country where RO didn't fall much from TFA. That would be just 11% down.

 

SW7 was huge there and made $21M with a multi better than 5x (according to BOM).

 

TFA was reported with a record breaking $6,6m in Sweden last year.  

 

http://www.insidekino.de/Archiv/ARCHIVNewsDEZ15.htm

Those are 5d-Results, as both opened on Wednesday. 
TFA had a $1,7m OD, so that $3,9m number is just Fri-Sun (official WE in Sweden).

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-overseas-box-office-1201668699/

 

Edited December 19, 2016 by Poseidon

[bladels]

It doesn't seem to be doing well in Vietnam.

I was alone in a huge room for RO's first 30m then about 7 people joined me.

RO doesn't have any marketing here except a FB's cover photo saying it's #1 movie this weekend.