syntaxerror Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 WB's horrible year continues. Jupiter Ascending, Pan, Entourage, Water Diviner, UNCLE, In The Heart of the Sea, Point Break... Can't be sooner till Batman v. Superman and Fantastic Beasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 5 minutes ago, The Panda Menace said: I'm pretty certain TDK admissions adjusted (accounting for 3D, which it wouldn't have had anyways because its a Nolan movie) would have been around TA-JW level. Agreed. $770m (74m admissions) seems high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, The Panda Menace said: 2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: I have it around $700m once you account for a lot more IMAX screens, PLF, and of course 3D. Should be able to get well past the $700m mark through next Sunday. I'm pretty certain TDK admissions adjusted (accounting for 3D, which it wouldn't have had anyways because its a Nolan movie) would have been around TA-JW level. That's too dramatic of a price drop in just 14 days, a full $0.95 off of the OW price. $9.45 is in the vicinity of a 25% 3D share (including IMAX/PLF). Which means that after the OW it would have had to be running well under 10%. There's no way its that low. Unless what you're saying is that TDK in today's market with its own particular 3D share would have done 700M. That makes more sense, but that's not the same as comparing TFA admissions with TDK admissions. TFA needs to hit around 770M to match/top TDK in admissions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 7 minutes ago, misafeco said: We can say that TFA is the biggest movie since Titanic. I don't know why people are liking this because it's complete nonsense. It's the "biggest" movie since Avatar however you want to define biggest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Community Manager Water Bottle Posted December 27, 2015 Community Manager Share Posted December 27, 2015 31 minutes ago, spizzer said: If BOM is correct, then GWTW sold 200M tickets over the course of all its releases. For TFA, that'd be anywhere between $1.9-2.1B, which isn't happening. I think its a 0% chance given what we've seen through 10 days, it would have had to follow Avatar to a T, which it didn't. It didn't follow Avatar since the OW. Avatar opened to $77 million and had great legs. TFA opened to almost $250 million and has had good legs thus far. 30 minutes ago, spizzer said: Actually jk. If we take out midnights/previews from Avatar/TFA, it would have do better than Avatar to hit $2B. Well, I think me saying "there's a 0.1% chance of it beating Gone with the Wind unadjusted" is me saying "there is a good chance that this will do better than Avatar." 29 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: Is there a % less than zero? lol It would need to ADD Avatar's adjusted total and throw in another $300 million to do that When Age of Ultron was coming out and I said that if AoU beat the OW record then it wouldn't matter because SW would beat it in December, people thought I was crazy. When Jurassic World came out and I made the claim that SW was going to beat the OW record, people told me that's impossible. I'm not saying it'll happen. If I had to bet, I'd say it won't make it. But the possibility....it's there. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 21 minutes ago, bladels said: We all did, if you care to read. No, my 50% prediction is for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 9 minutes ago, The Panda Menace said: I'm pretty certain TDK admissions adjusted (accounting for 3D, which it wouldn't have had anyways because its a Nolan movie) would have been around TA-JW level. 3 minutes ago, lilmac said: Agreed. $770m (74m admissions) seems high. Guys: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkknight.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm TDK came out before the RealD/3D/IMAX boom. It sold 74M tickets. Would it sell 74M tickets today with a 3D share that would take it to 770M? Who knows? I think arguing that it wouldn't is fair. But TFA needs to gross around 770M to match TDK's admissions. It doesn't matter how much 3D would affect TDK, that's a different conversation entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misafeco Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Best christmas gift ever: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giesi Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Eating some delicious Star Wars Christmas cookies while reading about TFA's record numbers. Life is AWESOME 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: I don't know why people are liking this because it's complete nonsense. It's the "biggest" movie since Avatar however you want to define biggest. But that'd be implying it isn't bigger than Avatar (and it will be domestically). Domestically, it'll be the biggest since Titanic at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: I don't know why people are liking this because it's complete nonsense. It's the "biggest" movie since Avatar however you want to define biggest. It is the biggest movie since Titanic if it passes Avatar in admissions. Quote however you want to define biggest. Exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misafeco Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: I don't know why people are liking this because it's complete nonsense. It's the "biggest" movie since Avatar however you want to define biggest. *DOM Avatar's WW record won't fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 SPECTRE: $653.9M Overseas Total / $850.1M Global Total #SPECTRE — BoxOffice (@BoxOffice) December 27, 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, spizzer said: Guys: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkknight.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm TDK came out before the RealD/3D/IMAX boom. It sold 74M tickets. Would it sell 74M tickets today with a 3D share that would take it to 770M? Who knows? I think arguing that it wouldn't is fair. But TFA needs to gross around 770M to match TDK's admissions. It doesn't matter how much 3D would affect TDK, that's a different conversation entirely. spizzer - what do you think will be the ultimate domestic gross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 10 minutes ago, Elessar said: Can't remember the last time a studio was off by more than a percent or two. But maybe i forgot... I can remember to be cautious if several public holidays are in a row and / or if the general population is rather on vacation as I had to have had to adjust my in-depth spreadsheets I do for ~ 2 movies a year based on that at least once a bit more than usual (more days at once than only Sunday). Beside... -2% might be enough for the rth discussion anyway, or BoxOffice @BoxOffice SPECTRE: $653.9M Overseas Total / $850.1M Global Total #SPECTRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, spizzer said: Guys: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=darkknight.htm&adjust_yr=1&p=.htm TDK came out before the RealD/3D/IMAX boom. It sold 74M tickets. Would it sell 74M tickets today with a 3D share that would take it to 770M? Who knows? I think arguing that it wouldn't is fair. But TFA needs to gross around 770M to match TDK's admissions. It doesn't matter how much 3D would affect TDK, that's a different conversation entirely. It made $50m in IMAX from less than 100 screens. That 74m admissions estimate is too high. More likely in the 71-72m area. What it did not have was nearly 400 IMAX screens (likely would have hit $80-100m in that scenario). Also had close to 0 PLF screens whereas there are 450 today. And obviously no 3D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, misafeco said: *DOM Avatar's WW record won't fall. Gotcha, didn't realize the debate was domestic admissions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 No avatar and tdk are around 760 770 in tickets Then Tpm is the next target I Sw7 passes all of these marks it's biggest ticket seller domestically since titanic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, lilmac said: It is the biggest movie since Titanic if it passes Avatar in admissions. TPM's higher than Avatar, lower than Titanic (Avatar I have estimated at 75-76M tickets, BOM's reports at the time suggest the same). TPM is at ~85. I dug up the data last week to recalculate (I had it at 75-77M before that). http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20748-star-wars-the-force-awakens-opening-weekend-actuals-in-1st-post-247966675-the-force-awoke-and-its-not-sleeping-anytime-soon-119-68-60/?page=271#comment-2314266 1 minute ago, lilmac said: spizzer - what do you think will be the ultimate domestic gross? $1.2-1.3B right now, challenging Titanic's attendance. I expect it to have strong legs after the holidays; its performance has been exceptional thus far, I see no reason for it to fall off beyond what you'd expect once normal days kick back in (weaker Mon-Thurs, strong weekend holds). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthdevidem01 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 It is good to see the ship is unlikely to be sunk in admissions, that makes me happy! The rest can fall for all I care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
