Chewy Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I feel like people who yearn for the good old days of original 80s blockbusters haven't revisited many 80s blockbusters in a long, long time 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 17 minutes ago, The Panda Menace said: But how would you do so? Different movies do different amounts in 3D, IMAX, and PLF. If you're adjusting it to the average ticket price, you are adjusting it to IMAX, 3D, and PLF factored in. If you adjusted it higher than the average ticket price, then you are over adjusting the movie and giving it a bigger advantage over the newer movie you're comparing it to. BOM's average ticket price only accounts for the average 3D share for all films in that year. So for example if film A has a 0% 3D share and film B has a 50% 3D share, the BOM average price will assume both had 25%. Now imagine doing this for 100s of films instead of just two. Every film with less than the average 25% share will be underestimated and every film with more than the average 25% 3D share will be overestimated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR & Friends Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 9 minutes ago, Daxtreme said: To all those doubting $900M+, here's the deal: The 2nd Week-end of the latest big blockbusters, Jurassic World and Avengers (1st one), had their second week-ends = ~15.6% of their total gross (In fact, no movie with a second week-end greater than 60 M had a total gross of more than 20% of their second week-end) So, applying those numbers to Star Wars we get $153,522,000 / 0.156 = $984,115,384 And that's assuming Star Wars follows Jurassic World and Avengers. It's much more hyped up than them, at least I think, but that's for another day... source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=2&p=.htm Let's calculate Star Wars's total with Avatar's second week-end-to-total ratio, for fun. 153,522,000 / 0.101 = 1,520,019,802 Avatar is ridiculous. $984 million would be disappointing for the simple fact that it would be less than 2% from $1 billion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildphantom Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That Force Awakens adjusted for inflation will be in the company of cinema defining pictures such as Gone With the Wind, The Sound of Music, Star Wars, E.T., Jaws, Titanic, Ten Commandments, Doctor Zhivago, Exorcist - I mean holy god. In an age where we have rampant piracy and anything and everything at our disposal with the touch of a button. That people have gone out to see this in the kinds of numbers that the above films got is truly unprecedented and kind of mind-boggling. I can't believe what's happening to be honest. It might make a billion dollars kids. A BILLION DOLLARS!!! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, spizzer said: BOM's average ticket price only accounts for the average 3D share for all films in that year. So for example if film A has a 0% 3D share and film B has a 50% 3D share, the BOM average price will assume both had 25%. Now imagine doing this for 100s of films instead of just two. Every film with less than the average 25% share will be underestimated and every film with more than the average 25% 3D share will be overestimated. So pretty much your major blockbusters are going to be a little higher, and non-blockbusters are going to be a little lower. I think, in general, it's best just not to compare admissions of 2015 to a different generation like the 90s. Where Star Wars has things like IMAX, 3D, etc. in its favor, it also has things like pirating (especially later in its run), early VOD releases, and such working against it. If we're going to give Titanic's admissions the high IMAX/3D/PLF boost, it'd also be fair to give Titanic's admissions a cut from pirating and early VOD releases, as a leggy run of its level wouldn't be possible in todays market. Even Avatar (a fairly newer movie) would have hard time replicating its run in the 2015 market compared to 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm so glad I went and saw Star Wars a fourth time rather than stay and read all this bullshit I'm seeing. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Or we could compare admissions while keeping all of that in mind. That doesn't seem like a crazy idea. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, spizzer said: Or we could compare admissions while keeping all of that in mind. That doesn't seem like a crazy idea. That makes way too much sense. Let me instead stubbornly insist that piracy has no effect because college kids definitely won't watch a subpar cam copy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 4 minutes ago, K1Rey said: I'm so glad I went and saw Star Wars a fourth time rather than stay and read all this bullshit I'm seeing. Drag these bitches, sis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: $984 million would be disappointing for the simple fact that it would be less than 2% from $1 billion Haha, I do not dare to hope for that kind of numbers, but alone for the missing 2% it's entirely possible with Disney Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthdevidem01 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 8 hours ago, Daxtreme said: To all those doubting $900M+, here's the deal: The 2nd Week-end of the latest big blockbusters, Jurassic World and Avengers (1st one), had their second week-ends = ~15.6% of their total gross (In fact, no movie with a second week-end greater than 60 M had a total gross of more than 20% of their second week-end) So, applying those numbers to Star Wars we get $153,522,000 / 0.156 = $984,115,384 And that's assuming Star Wars follows Jurassic World and Avengers. It's much more hyped up than them, at least I think, but that's for another day... source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=2&p=.htm Let's calculate Star Wars's total with Avatar's second week-end-to-total ratio, for fun. 153,522,000 / 0.101 = 1,520,019,802 Avatar is ridiculous. Let us do your trick with the last release in this historic franchise, ROTS. ROST 2nd weekend gross - $55 Million (total DOM was $380 Million) 380/55 = 6.91 6.91*153 = $1057.01 Million So if it follows ROTS (a film with worse WOM) it will do $1 Billion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildphantom Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I love how Star Wars becoming a true phenomenon that's giving us numbers we'd only dreamt of is now giving people a crisis of confidence. They can't comprehend it so they're trying to almost explain its not what we think it is, like a defence mechanism. Forget all the inflation bullshit. We could go round in circles on this until the end of time. It's all about the dollars. Regardless, it will end up amongst the biggest in the history of movies. It's a pop culture phenomenon. It is THE movie of our times. It's the biggest thing we've seen since that boat sank in 1997. And for those of us that remember, BOY was that huge. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The 2nd weekend can finally be quite similar to TDK OW. Taking into account that SW7 seems to have very good WOM like TDK had, I find quite difficult it can not make, as minimum, the same than TDK did since this point (another $375m). That would give us about $920m. The week after OW, TDK did $165m. SW7 can easily beat that amount the upcoming week (weekdays 100 + weekend 110). That would mean another extra $45m more relative to what TDK did. The SW7 4th weekend drop will be harder than TDK's 3rd one, but still with a higher figure (maybe 50 million against 42 from TDK), so the difference will continue growing. IMHO, billion is quite likely. Of course, this is asuming the WOM of TDK. Who knows if this surprises again after holidays and continues holding extremely well... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, darthdevidem01 said: Let us do your trick with the last release in this historic franchise, ROTS. ROST 2nd weekend gross - $55 Million (total DOM was $380 Million) 380/55 = 6.91 6.91*153 = $1057.01 Million So if it follows ROTS (a film with worse WOM) it will do $1 Billion I like your thinking but Sith opened on a Thursday to $50m, which accounted for 13% of the total gross. If you take out the Thursday number for each movie, then the calculations should be more of a fair comparison. Sith: $330m/$55m = 6 6 x $153m = $918m. Add in TFA's preview money and you get $975m. This one has better WOM and holiday boost over next 7 days so it should do better than that. $975m is the floor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I really am going to marry Kelli one day. 4x already? Be still my heart. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greylemur Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Weather update: Winter Storm Goliath has really hit NEW MEXICO/TEXAS/OKLAHOMA over the last 24 hours, but severe weather is stretching up into the Midwest (Minnesota, Illinois, et cetera) http://www.weather.com/news/weather/news/winter-storm-goliath-state-by-state-impacts Albuquerque is largely shut down--public places started closing yesterday, I40 is closed between Albuquerque and just west of Amarillo, Texas, and the Governor has called out the National Guard. We were expecting 3-6 inches of snow, got somewhere around 15-20. The occasional 60 mph wind gusts blowing over semis aren't helping, either. California and Washington are having weather issues, as well. Here's the bare bones of Goliath: Guess I'm saying there is no way this ISN'T having SOME short term affect on box office, so don't think the numbers are going up...at least not for Saturday and Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darthdevidem01 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 8 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said: I like your thinking but Sith opened on a Thursday to $50m, which accounted for 13% of the total gross. If you take out the Thursday number for each movie, then the calculations should be more of a fair comparison. Sith: $330m/$55m = 6 6 x $153m = $918m. Add in TFA's preview money and you get $975m. This one has better WOM and holiday boost over next 7 days so it should do better than that. $975m is the floor. Ahhh I had made a miscalculation LOL! Still looks pretty good though so yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I just noticed that TFA broke another record that should be a big deal, but no one is talking about it. Biggest Month ever, with a current total of 534mil up until now The Avengers had the biggest Month with 532 million in May 2012. JW had 514 this past June, but it had some better legs because less competition and 4th of July weekend gave it a nice boost. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 hours ago, Lordmandeep said: All I care is that SW7 bitchslaped Katniss and JW and showed who the real king and Queen is. Also bitched slap Avengers. People thought Avengers was this generation Star Wars 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Good post Greylemur. I'm in Houston right now visiting family and we have had tornado warnings on the news today. I live in West Texas and they are getting hit with a lot of snow today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
