Monday's (12.January) Revenant 4.02 | SW 7 3.1 | DH 843k | Forest 658k | H8 589k | Sisters 544k | Big Short 506k

[baumer]

I'm in tears watching this movie. 

[Plain Old Tele]

When it reaches $910m, TFA will have beaten AVATAR by the same amount AVATAR beat TITANIC (more or less). That seems like a nice target.

[Daxtreme]

From now on, week-ends will determine its fate. 

 

If Star Wars has ~900M in the bank by February 1st, I'd see another ~50-60M coming in for the next 2 months, 70M if it really plays out well.

 

Well, goodbye 1 Billion, that was a fun dream that lasted a lot longer than it should have in the first place.

 

It's still possible if Disney re-releases it at some point though.

[Blankments]

Room needs to go wide already; I'm infinitely more interested in it than any other awards movie left from 2015. Anomalisa looks cool too tho, and I guess I'm kinda looking forward to Carol. Room looks perfect to me though

[baumer]

18 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

I'm pretty sure every OW record holders up to Jurassic Park had a better multiplier than that. JP was past a 7.5.

 

Since then, yeah, it's been a lower ratio.

 

I'm sorry what?  You're talking about a different era.  You're not seriously going to compare a film from 1989 to now, are you?

[CJohn]

I have to wait until February 11 to see Room so all of you can consider yourselves happy since Room is totally going wide this Friday.

[terrestrial]

6 minutes ago, tokila said:

The 1st thing I noticed is the blue line is already well above the red line.

 

I am guessing he is reacting to my chart? Again ignoring him being on ignore...

 

So, just in case a newbe is lurking in too and not familiar with the charts (as the do not have descriptions for the mark lines included)

The chart's mark represent $250m each. Does here anyone expect to see $3m clearly?

Better wait for a few days, it will stay flat and than get up during the 4day weekend,.... and than get flat(ter) again, ...

And stay way flatter than Avatar afterwards, as they didn't have the same pattern from the very beginning.

As it was already explained a 100 times to that... 'fan'

 

 

3 minutes ago, tokila said:

Its a great number for Rev, but a "fine" drop for TFA.

Agree, as mentioned, 3 times TTT is more than merely good IMHO

 

Weekend ~ thoughts by The-Numbers

Quote

The film hit $800 million during its 23rd day of release. By comparison, Jurassic World took 24 days to reach $550 million, while Avatar reached $400 million 23 days into its run. Granted, Avatar earned another $300 million after this point, while The Force Awakens has about $100 million left in its initial run. (I wouldn't be surprised if it was re-released to coincide with other future installments in the franchise.)

 

Quote

The Revenant expanded wide earning second place with $39.83 million over the weekend for a total of $41.38 million including its limited release. This is more than enough to guarantee a $100 million run; after all, its reviews and Award Season wins should help its legs.

 

Quote

The Forest opened in fourth place with $12.74 million over the weekend. This is more than the $10 million the film cost to make. Granted, horror films tend to have bad legs, especially when the reviews are this terrible....

http://www.the-numbers.com/news/210890830-Weekend-Wrap-Up-The-Schwartz-is-still-Strong-with-Star-Wars-as-it-Earns-42-35-Million

[baumer]

I'm watching Room.  Sorry.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Baumer said:

I'm watching Room.  Sorry.

 

The "the" makes all the difference.

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The "the" makes all the difference.

 

 

 

[tokila]

9 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

When it reaches $910m, TFA will have beaten AVATAR by the same amount AVATAR beat TITANIC (more or less). That seems like a nice target.

and a realistic one.

[spazz91]

5 minutes ago, Baumer said:

I'm watching Room.  Sorry.

 

You could make it a double feature with THE Room. 

[#ED]

4 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

The "the" makes all the difference.

 

[Daxtreme]

Alright guys,

 

My prediction for the rest of the month:

This week: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 M --> Total = 824 M
MLK week-end: 27.3 M (35% drop) --> Total = 851 M
Next week: 6 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 12 M --> Total = 863 M
Jan 22-24 Week-end: 16.5 M (40% drop) --> Total = 880 M 
Jan 25-28 Week: 1.5 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 7.5 M --> Total = 888 M
Jan 29-31 Week-end: 10 M (40% drop) --> Total = 898 M

It crosses 900M on February 1st, or 2nd at the latest.

 

From Feb 1st/2nd and forward, the movie should gross an additional ~50-60M until the end of its run, for a total of 950-960 M. In my opinion.

---------

I arrived at these numbers by taking the ROTK drops on weekdays, which Star Wars has been following religiously the past week, and the ROTK drop +5% on week-ends, which happened last week-end. I went really hard on the Jan 29-31 week-end, ROTK dropped only 21% and I still gave TFA a 40% drop. However, I went easy on MLK week-end, giving TFA only a 35% drop (ROTK dropped 28% on that week-end).

What do you think?

 

Also, how do I save a post? I wanna come back later and remember this but it's probably gonna be buried somewhere

 

[setna]

12 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

From now on, week-ends will determine its fate. 

 

If Star Wars has ~900M in the bank by February 1st, I'd see another ~50-60M coming in for the next 2 months, 70M if it really plays out well.

 

Well, goodbye 1 Billion, that was a fun dream that lasted a lot longer than it should have in the first place.

 

It's still possible if Disney re-releases it at some point though.

 

 

But how?

i´ve seen some comments here about reaching 930, 950and even 970 million, but with some analysis before, it needs weekly drops each week less than 50% and this week and the last one didn´t get it.

I´d like to be so optimistic, but i´m starting to see it even difficult passing 900 million with these weekly drops, i hope to be wrong, because 900 at least, would be a really nice number...

[kitik]

12 minutes ago, Baumer said:

I'm watching Room.  Sorry.

 

I demand that you watch The Room after this.

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, setna said:

 

 

But how?

i´ve seen some comments here about reaching 930, 950and even 970 million, but with some analysis before, it needs weekly drops each week less than 50% and this week and the last one didn´t get it.

I´d like to be so optimistic, but i´m starting to see it even difficult passing 900 million with these weekly drops, i hope to be wrong, because 900 at least, would be a really nice number...

 

Check my post above.

[BadAtGender]

10 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

I'm sorry what?  You're talking about a different era.  You're not seriously going to compare a film from 1989 to now, are you?

 

Well, if you're going to use language like "never" I'd expect you to mean "no film has ever done this" not "no film since 1993 has done this." I'm not psychic, so I don't know if you mean something besides the words on the page. So, yeah, I'm seriously going to look at your language choice as given and apply that to what you're saying. You said "never" and that's incorrect.

 

As it stands, it looks like the legs for the film will turn out to be in the same range as Toy Story 3's. With a same OW/Final ratio, it'll end up in the 930-940m range. Which is kinda fitting, since it's also a well loved property that came back after a long, quiet period.

[langer]

After a 10M week end in February, it shouldn't gross more than 30M without some kind of push (special edition, Oscar push, Rogue One exclusive trailer)

[setna]

6 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Alright guys,

 

My prediction for the rest of the month:

This week: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 M --> Total = 824 M
MLK week-end: 27.3 M (35% drop) --> Total = 851 M
Next week: 6 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 12 M --> Total = 863 M
Jan 22-24 Week-end: 16.5 M (40% drop) --> Total = 880 M 
Jan 25-28 Week: 1.5 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 7.5 M --> Total = 888 M
Jan 29-31 Week-end: 10 M (40% drop) --> Total = 898 M

It crosses 900M on February 1st, or 2nd at the latest.

 

From Feb 1st/2nd and forward, the movie should gross an additional ~50-60M until the end of its run, for a total of 950-960 M. In my opinion.

---------

I arrived at these numbers by taking the ROTK drops on weekdays, which Star Wars has been following religiously the past week, and the ROTK drop +5% on week-ends, which happened last week-end. I went really hard on the Jan 29-31 week-end, ROTK dropped only 21% and I still gave TFA a 40% drop. However, I went easy on MLK week-end, giving TFA only a 35% drop (ROTK dropped 28% on that week-end).

What do you think?

 

Also, how do I save a post? I wanna come back later and remember this but it's probably gonna be buried somewhere

 

 

Ok, until 900 million in February, it seems doable, but the 50 -60 plus???