Monday's (12.January) Revenant 4.02 | SW 7 3.1 | DH 843k | Forest 658k | H8 589k | Sisters 544k | Big Short 506k

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Wow!  This is one of the most harrowing films I've ever seen.

How does it compare to The Babadook?

[Punishment]

 

TTT = $962m

Kong = $938m

Hobbit3 = $894m (ewwww)

 

TFA needs a good Friday bump (close to 100%) to keep pace with TTT and around a $930-950m finish.  A Friday increase below 80% will put it closer to the Hobbit movies and a $900m to $920m finish. 

[Ethan Hunt]

17 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Wow!  This is one of the most harrowing films I've ever seen.

Glad you enjoyed it. I really fucking want to see it

[langer]

7 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I appreciate the reasoned responses here and the analysis. I saw this number... and... it just looks bad. I mean 75% drop?! Yikes, I had in my mind more like $4.5M, because Revenant scored $4M and TFA beat it by $2M on Sunday. Harsh drop. I certainly thought $4M though.

 

But after reading what people wrote, I feel better. I don't and haven't ever really found $1B to be THAT realistic and didn't care as much about that, but I really want that $900M. I just think it's cool that Titanic was the first movie ever to top $500M and $600M, Avatar first to $700M, so I would love it to see TFA be the first movie ever to crack both $800M and $900M. I think that's so cool.

 

It seems like everyone agrees, and I do as well, that $900M is still happening for sure. It'll get there, it's just more like is it $910M? Is it $930M? Is it $950M maybe? But I just want $900M and I'm beyond stoked by whatever it makes above that.

 

Re-releasing the movie could push it over 1B, but with EP 8 coming so soon, I don't see why they would re-release it though. 

[LinksterAC]

2 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

 

It'll do way more than that for the three day.  

 

I don't think the week day numbers are going to be good or bad anymore.  Now it just sort of follows a pattern.  Tuesday will go up by about 20-30%, Wed will fall by about the same number and so on.  It's the weekend that will determine where it finishes.....920 or closer to 970.  Just my opinion.

 

I don't know.  If it's at about $3M on Thursday, as you say:

 

Friday: $6M 100%

Sat: $11M ~80%

Sun: $9M -20%

 

That's a $26M 3-day.  

 

Are you thinking a better than 100% Thursday to Friday?

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

... 3-day. 

Not sure if you meant it that way, but the next weekend is a 4day

[Kalo]

40 minutes ago, kitik said:

 

Hate to break it to you, but there will be no need for a coin flip next weekend. Ride Along 2 is going to crush both the Revenant and Star Wars.

 

Just because the first one was a fluke hit, does not mean the sequel, to a film that was not very well liked and one that looks even worse, is going to generate the same kind of revenue.  sure it will probably hit $25m or so. but I think 13 hours is just as likely, and at least that movie looks entertaining. I'm also extremely bias to star wars getting dethroned to possibly one of the worst films of the year. so who knows maybe you are right but I really hope not.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kalo

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, LinksterAC said:

 

I don't know.  If it's at about $3M on Thursday, as you say:

 

Friday: $6M 100%

Sat: $11M ~80%

Sun: $9M -20%

 

That's a $26M 3-day.  

 

Are you thinking a better than 100% Thursday to Friday?

 

Big time, yes.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

When it reaches $910m, TFA will have beaten AVATAR by the same amount AVATAR beat TITANIC (more or less). That seems like a nice target.

 

Seems like a good target, last weeks $980 target (Avatar +200m) is now unobtainumable.

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, Daxtreme said:

 

ROTK made 32 M from Feb 1st to the end of its run.

 

Since TFA will, at this point, still average grosses that are about 1.5-2x bigger than ROTK at the same point, I'd say 50M sounds feasible.

 

Star Wars isn't suddenly gonna die out. If anything, the prequels didn't, so why should this one?

 

I'm not saying it's guaranteed though. 

 

TFA probably wont get nominated 11 times and probably won't win all those. Most probably and most important, not the beste Picture award.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Poseidon

[Cochofles]

3 hours ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

Hell, I have no idea if 3M is good for this movie on Monday or not... It's made so much $$$$ at this point, it's like whatever.. You Go!!

 If it doesn't gross a billion in the USA, it can certainly be called a flop.  

[JonathanLB]

Any movie that can't make a billion in the U.S. is basically a worthless dud, let's be honest. The first good movie hasn't even come out yet and probably won't for a decade or two because hitting $1B is really the bare minimum for a film to be called even "good" let alone great.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

That's not a good drop for TF, WIB2 dropped 66% 

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

That's not a good drop for TF, WIB2 dropped 66% 

The Forest's main public are teens that during the week can't go to the movies. It is gonna be fine.

[terrestrial]

Did anyone find out details about

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride

limited to 2 days run in the US?

[CJohn]

I just saw Joy and The Revenant drops. The power of the GOLDEN GLOBES. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Forest's main public are teens that during the week can't go to the movies. It is gonna be fine.

 

I hope you're right, I want at least $35m for it 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I just saw Joy and The Revenant drops. The power of the GOLDEN GLOBES. 

 

*The Queen power

 

how's JOY doing in Portugal btw 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

*The Queen power

 

how's JOY doing in Portugal btw 

It had a good opening and I am now hoping for good legs  JLaw getting that Oscar nomination would really help. 

[Harpospoke]

 

1 hour ago, langer said:

 

3,75X multi in mid December is considered normal/average.   The fact it had a big opening with a normal/average multi makes it a good multiplier for a December movie. 

 

You need to put SW7 two categories higher.

 

There is the "big opening" category which SW7 is not a part of.

Then there is the "broke OW record" category which SW7 is also not a part of.

Finally there is the "blew away the OW record in December" category in which SW7 is the only member.

 

Kinda hard to label its legs as "normal/average" given that.

 

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

But after reading what people wrote, I feel better. I don't and haven't ever really found $1B to be THAT realistic and didn't care as much about that, but I really want that $900M. I just think it's cool that Titanic was the first movie ever to top $500M and $600M, Avatar first to $700M, so I would love it to see TFA be the first movie ever to crack both $800M and $900M. I think that's so cool.

 

I think that's where the focus should have been the whole time.   The 1 billion thing had the overall effect of raising "expectations" and put a blanket of "disappointment" over this insanely great run.    I guess that's what happens when you are the first movie to break 900m, suddenly that big round number starts looking attractive and dreams take over and cause some to miss a truly epic reality.