Monday's (12.January) Revenant 4.02 | SW 7 3.1 | DH 843k | Forest 658k | H8 589k | Sisters 544k | Big Short 506k

[langer]

1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

 

Well, if you're going to use language like "never" I'd expect you to mean "no film has ever done this" not "no film since 1993 has done this." I'm not psychic, so I don't know if you mean something besides the words on the page. So, yeah, I'm seriously going to look at your language choice as given and apply that to what you're saying. You said "never" and that's incorrect.

 

As it stands, it looks like the legs for the film will turn out to be in the same range as Toy Story 3's. With a same OW/Final ratio, it'll end up in the 930-940m range. Which is kinda fitting, since it's also a well loved property that came back after a long, quiet period.

 

It's a mid-December release, comparing to a summer release is also "unfair".  

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

I'm sorry what?  You're talking about a different era.  You're not seriously going to compare a film from 1989 to now, are you?

 

Honestly, 2002 was a different world as well. SM1 was on 7,500 screens compared to over 14,000 for TFA. That makes this performance even more amazing. SM1 didn't have enough capacity to meet demand, which is why it had stronger legs than some of the other big openers that had much larger screen counts. TFA is gonna cruise past SM1's multiplier despite much larger screen count to meet demand in early days. Amazing stuff for sure.

[kitik]

4 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Alright guys,

 

My prediction for the rest of the month:

This week: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 M --> Total = 824 M
MLK week-end: 27.3 M (35% drop) --> Total = 851 M
Next week: 6 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 12 M --> Total = 863 M
Jan 22-24 Week-end: 16.5 M (40% drop) --> Total = 880 M 
Jan 25-28 Week: 1.5 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 7.5 M --> Total = 888 M
Jan 29-31 Week-end: 10 M (40% drop) --> Total = 898 M

It crosses 900M on February 1st, or 2nd at the latest.

 

From Feb 1st/2nd and forward, the movie should gross an additional ~50-60M until the end of its run, for a total of 950-960 M. In my opinion.
 

 

 

And then on Tuesday April 5, when it's at 960M, Disney can announce that the trailers for Rogue One, Dr Strange, Moana, the teasers for Ghost In the Shell and Beauty and the Beast, and final trailers for Civil War, Finding Dory, and Alice in Wonderland will all show exclusively with TFA for the weekend of April 8-10, before debuting online on Monday April 11.

 

Actually, that probably wouldn't even do it. It would be a fun little studio experiment though.

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, setna said:

 

Ok, until 900 million in February, it seems doable, but the 50 -60 plus???

 

ROTK made 32 M from Feb 1st to the end of its run.

 

Since TFA will, at this point, still average grosses that are about 1.5-2x bigger than ROTK at the same point, I'd say 50M sounds feasible.

 

Star Wars isn't suddenly gonna die out. If anything, the prequels didn't, so why should this one?

 

I'm not saying it's guaranteed though. 

[baumer]

I apologize @DamienRoc You're right.  I didn't clarify.  

 

 

And to say this will miss 900...come on guys....really.

[setna]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

ROTK made 32 M from Feb 1st to the end of its run.

 

Since TFA will, at this point, still average grosses that are about 1.5-2x bigger than ROTK at the same point, I'd say 50M sounds feasible.

 

Star Wars isn't suddenly gonna die out. If anything, the prequels didn't, so why should this one?

 

I'm not saying it's guaranteed though. 

 

Yes, this sound good, but other movies at this time had scored 300, 400, 600 million, but this monster has done 815!!... i´ll be really happy with this, but it seems really difficult with the terrible drop of today. Still there are weekends, that maybe hold very well...let´s see because it´s an unexplored territory, but i´m starting to losing some faith...

but thanks very much for the analysis and the kindness.

[BadAtGender]

Just now, Baumer said:

I apologize @DamienRoc You're right.  I didn't clarify.  

 

 

And to say this will miss 900...come on guys....really.

 

Yeah, no way in hell this comes in below 900m. For it to do that, its late legs would have to be as absurdly bad as its first few weeks were absurdly good.

 

3 minutes ago, langer said:

 

It's a mid-December release, comparing to a summer release is also "unfair".  

 

Unfair for what? December releases tend to have better legs. TS3's performance was pretty legendary for a summer opener. To get a Friday opener in any season that had better legs than it, you have to drop down to Inside Out on the all time OW list. The next after that is, I think, The Passion of the Christ.

 

As it stands, Baumer is correct that the legs for TFA are looking really good. To be big and sustained takes a lot. If it gets to 940, it will have had better legs than TS3, which is remarkable in any season, and moreso for a film that set the OW record.

[terrestrial]

26 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Also, how do I save a post? I wanna come back later and remember this but it's probably gonna be buried somewhere

I do not know how others do it, but I have a lot of folders and sub-folders within my 'favorites'/bookmarks in my browser, I name the folders / sub-folders (like main folder BO or BOT => sub-folder BOT predictions???), favor/bookmark the post via right-click on the right-cornered arrow = bookmark this... and fill in/edit the description of the saved favorite/bookmark (like SW 7 final run prediction?)

Only 'problem' I sometimes have: I should get all the computers I work with more often on the same level for my bookmarks, again and again I use exact the computer that has not the needed bookmark on / in the bookmarklist

Edited January 12, 2016 by terrestrial

[langer]

1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

 

Unfair for what? December releases tend to have better legs. TS3's performance was pretty legendary for a summer opener. To get a Friday opener in any season that had better legs than it, you have to drop down to Inside Out on the all time OW list. The next after that is, I think, The Passion of the Christ.

 

As it stands, Baumer is correct that the legs for TFA are looking really good. To be big and sustained takes a lot. If it gets to 940, it will have had better legs than TS3, which is remarkable in any season, and moreso for a film that set the OW record.

 

3,75X multi in mid December is considered normal/average.   The fact it had a big opening with a normal/average multi makes it a good multiplier for a December movie. 

[kitik]

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

The Revenant is going to hold very well this weekend. It just won the Golden Globe for Best Pic, Director and Actor, and almost certainly getting the same nominations when the Oscars are announced on Friday (or is it thursday?). could flip with TFA for #1 (unless Ride Along 2 eeks in at #1 )

 

Hate to break it to you, but there will be no need for a coin flip next weekend. Ride Along 2 is going to crush both the Revenant and Star Wars.

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, setna said:

... terrible drop of today. ...

It follows ~ the per day results of Lord of the Rings 2 / The Two Towers.

As in times 3 (A discovery of the member named @Fake)

No basic change of the pattern including today, as far as I followed it.

[baumer]

Wow!  This is one of the most harrowing films I've ever seen.

[terrestrial]

Hey, it reached $1.75 billion. Nice round number / milestone

 

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$815,843,529	46.6%
+ Foreign:	$935,400,000	53.4%
= Worldwide:	$1,751,243,529

[spazz91]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I do not now how others do it, but I have a lot of folders and sub-folders within my 'favorites'/bookmarks in my browser, I name the folders / sub-folders (like main folder BO or BOT => sub-folder BOT predictions???), favor/bookmark the post via right-click on the right-cornered arrow = bookmark this... and fill in/edit the description of the saved favorite/bookmark (like SW 7 final run prediction?)

Only 'problem' I sometimes have: I should get all the computers I work with more often on the same level for my bookmarks, again and again I use exact the computer that has not the needed bookmark on / in the bookmarklist

 

If you always use google chrome then you can sync your bookmarks on all your computers, as long as you have a google account.

[setna]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

It follows ~ the per day results of Lord of the Rings 2 / The Two Towers.

As in times 3 (A discovery of the member named @Fake)

No basic change of the pattern including today, as far as I followed it.

 

Thanks, let´s have some hope with this comparision...

[The Gotham Bank]

Let's go, The Revenant. What are we looking at for second weekend?

[junkshop36]

11 minutes ago, setna said:

 

Yes, this sound good, but other movies at this time had scored 300, 400, 600 million, but this monster has done 815!!... i´ll be really happy with this, but it seems really difficult with the terrible drop of today. Still there are weekends, that maybe hold very well...let´s see because it´s an unexplored territory, but i´m starting to losing some faith...

but thanks very much for the analysis and the kindness.

 

Don't worry, it's doing 900m. Probably 920-930m, maybe a little more. 

 

And todays drop isn't terrible lol. It's no longer the holidays. It's a more family oriented film which generally have harsh drops on non holiday non summer Monday's. 

 

It will jump 20%+ today, drop about the same Wednesday and either stay flat or slightly drop Thursday. Back to normal for this time of year. 

[Blankments]

44 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I have to wait until February 11 to see Room so all of you can consider yourselves happy since Room is totally going wide this Friday.

Not where I am  

[terrestrial]

1 minute ago, spazz91 said:

If you always use google chrome then you can sync your bookmarks on all your computers, as long as you have a google account.

I wouldn't touch google with... I forgot the saying. Based on the NEVER a google account... no YT anymore since years

No Android, .... but thanks for the suggestion anyway, you couldn't have known that I really do not like google for several reasons.

 

I know I can synch, but I forget it too often (Mozilla till recently, will change to Pale Moon probably or ...) to do so.

 

[JonathanLB]

I appreciate the reasoned responses here and the analysis. I saw this number... and... it just looks bad. I mean 75% drop?! Yikes, I had in my mind more like $4.5M, because Revenant scored $4M and TFA beat it by $2M on Sunday. Harsh drop. I certainly thought $4M though.

 

But after reading what people wrote, I feel better. I don't and haven't ever really found $1B to be THAT realistic and didn't care as much about that, but I really want that $900M. I just think it's cool that Titanic was the first movie ever to top $500M and $600M, Avatar first to $700M, so I would love it to see TFA be the first movie ever to crack both $800M and $900M. I think that's so cool.

 

It seems like everyone agrees, and I do as well, that $900M is still happening for sure. It'll get there, it's just more like is it $910M? Is it $930M? Is it $950M maybe? But I just want $900M and I'm beyond stoked by whatever it makes above that.