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Best Picture predictions-2016!

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13 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Sadly you're probably right about only 2 of the 5 nominees for Comedy/Musical actually being a musical or comedy. If a Disney film were to be nominated, Zootopia and Moana are the ones that actually fit the category

Animated features aren't eligible for the Golden Globe Drama or Comedy/Musical categories.

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5 hours ago, cannastop said:

Animated features aren't eligible for the Golden Globe Drama or Comedy/Musical categories.

I knew that, which makes the Comedy/Musical category even more barren since an entire medium is excluded. 

 

Although The Jungle Book shouldn't be eligible for Comedy/Musical either since it's essentially a photorealistic animated film (besides Mowgli). Also Bill Murray's performance is the only truly humorous aspect of an otherwise tense family blockbuster. 

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What will be the gross for the nominees this year? Those grosses would become true if the film is nommed, IMHO.

 

Sure nominees

La La Land - 110M

Manchester by the sea - 40M

Arrival - 105M

Moonlight - 30M

 

Good bets

Hell or High Water - 27M

Silence - 80M

Fences - 60M

 

In the fight

Hacksaw Ridge - 70M

Sully - 125M

Lion - 10M

Loving - 15M

Jackie - 15M

Hidden Figures - 70M

 

 

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Saw an advance screening of La La Land tonight and have zero problem with it winning Best Picture whatsoever. Currently my #2 of the year behind Manchester by the Sea.

 

Kinda funny, just two months ago Love & Friendship was my #1 film of the year since seeing it in May and now it's all the way down to #5.

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Out of every year in Oscar history, I really can't think of a more appropriate one than this for an animated film to crack the BP field. Animated films were by far the biggest commercial and critical hits of anything this year. It truly was the "year of animation." They have at least three entirely worthy candidates to choose from this year for a BP nom. Beyond that, after the 5 locks or so, the rest of the BP field is looking incredibly weak. I suppose they could just add Arrival and leave it at 6 noms, but if they're going to go any deeper than that then it makes no sense at all to exclude something like Zootopia, Kubo, or Moana. No one needs to see the 5,007,045th "inspirational true story" generica drama  nominated for BP (yes looking at all of you Lion, Sully, Loving, Hidden Figures, and Jackie). If they're being honest with themselves, not having animation present in the highest award this year is purely out of bias and nothing else. 

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2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

No one needs to see the 5,007,045th "inspirational true story" generica drama  nominated for BP

The academy does.


Honestly, even though I'm a huge fan of animation, I'm not offended when any given animated feature isn't nominated.

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10 hours ago, cannastop said:

The academy does.


Honestly, even though I'm a huge fan of animation, I'm not offended when any given animated feature isn't nominated.

Well it certainly doesn't offend me personally, I just think it's dumb genre bias is still such a thing with the Academy. They should be past it by this point. 

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Nocturnal Animals is performing very strong at the box office currently. It could end up just shy of 4 million in just over 1,000 theaters this weekend, which could give the studio more confidence to keep widening its release in the coming weeks. That could help it secure some noms, but I dunno about Best Picture.

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It's complicated to make comparissions between The Butler and Hidden Figures. Even more this early, when only 11 reviews are in RT.

 

Anyways, The Butler was close to be nommed and it was buried because of its release date and the great bunch of October/November/December films. The earlier a film opens, the stronger its backlash will surely be.

 

With diversity campaign as a new factor and a December opening, Hidden Figures might very well be nommed.

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