Monday Numbers: 15.05 M BVS | About a 55% drop, better than F7 Easter Monday. EPIC CJohn meltdown starts Page 18.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So, wait, Zootopia's definitely getting $300M+ DOM, no? I sure hope so.

 

I have it at about 275 through next Sunday. I don't see how it misses it to be frank.

[RyneOh1040]

I have no bias towards this movie at all, I just know that in the south (where Easter is a huge deal) no one would know what the hell you're talking about if you mentioned 'Easter Monday'.  It's just not a real world thing.  

 

 I don't think it having a solid drop has as much to do with it being the day after a religious holiday as much as it does with a huge majority of public schools being on Spring Break.  Films always have lighter drops on dailies the first week of April, but it's not because Easter was the weekend before, lol.  I went to a private Christian college in Nashville and we never got the Monday after Easter out, but I know that's a very limited experience and could see some private schools making it a holiday.

 

Bottom line it's a one day hold and there's only so much you can analyze.  But it having a good drop today and maybe staying even tomorrow has way less to do with 'Easter Monday' and way more to do with the fact that it's a new film with a gigantic opening and a lot of IMAX screens.  Historically they don't increase much on their first Tuesday regardless of release date.

[redfirebird2008]

Wonder if WB will report international number as well. My guess is $22m or so.

[Hatebox]

Just now, RyneOh1040 said:

I have no bias towards this movie at all, I just know that in the south (where Easter is a huge deal) no one would know what the hell you're talking about if you mentioned 'Easter Monday'.  It's just not a real world thing. 

 

Well, it is an actual thing in Europe.

[MinaTakla]

The amount of hope for BVS to crumble or fail seems a bit biased to me.

If Civil War ends up bad, and rotten in reviews, will so many people be hoping it crumbles and fails too?

Let's see. Not that I hope it fails of course, but am seeing a bit too far (bias) here..and have been sensing it even before the film opens from the many comments of folks saying it's gonna fail, it's gonna fail

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, RyneOh1040 said:

I have no bias towards this movie at all, I just know that in the south (where Easter is a huge deal) no one would know what the hell you're talking about if you mentioned 'Easter Monday'.  It's just not a real world thing.  

 

 I don't think it having a solid drop has as much to do with it being the day after a religious holiday as much as it does with a huge majority of public schools being on Spring Break.  Films always have lighter drops on dailies the first week of April, but it's not because Easter was the weekend before, lol.  I went to a private Christian college in Nashville and we never got the Monday after Easter out, but I know that's a very limited experience and could see some private schools making it a holiday.

 

Bottom line it's a one day hold and there's only so much you can analyze.  But it having a good drop today and maybe staying even tomorrow has way less to do with 'Easter Monday' and way more to do with the fact that it's a new film with a gigantic opening and a lot of IMAX screens.  Historically they don't increase much on their first Tuesday regardless of release date.

 

There probably isn't enough credit given to spring breaks being given this week, but you cannot deny that this is trend that isn't new - and goes back more than a decade. Schools around me were out yesterday for the kiddos (hence the great drops that kid films see) but the teachers were still required to report in. Obviously its not the same everywhere and what one person experiences another might never, but we can't just blankly say - thus it shall be - because it's not our own experience. That being said, I never had the Monday after Easter off either as a kid or as an adult until this year but that is because I work for a church and Easter Sunday wears you out lol. 

[syntaxerror]

Will this break 1B?

 

The movie will need to gross more than 1B to break even, accounting for production costs, promotion+advertisement+marketing, distribution off-the-top, participation, overhead etc.

 

I think it'll end at 375M domestic.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

The amount of hope for BVS to crumble or fail seems a bit biased to me.

If Civil War ends up bad, and rotten in reviews, will so many people be hoping it crumbles and fails too?

Let's see. Not that I hope it fails of course, but am seeing a bit too far (bias) here..and have been sensing it even before the film opens from the many comments of folks saying it's gonna fail, it's gonna fail

It's a major properly that has fans and detractors. Of course they will. Happened to Transformers and Twilight as well. It's not a new trend.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

The amount of hope for BVS to crumble or fail seems a bit biased to me.

If Civil War ends up bad, and rotten in reviews, will so many people be hoping it crumbles and fails too?

Let's see. Not that I hope it fails of course, but am seeing a bit too far (bias) here..and have been sensing it even before the film opens from the many comments of folks saying it's gonna fail, it's gonna fail

 

I will never understand the "I hope it fails" crowd for any film. The more successful films we have the more risks it seems that studios are willing to take on smaller films. If we can get more of Bay's smaller films like Pain & Gain, The Island & Bengahzi (not saying they are great mind you) because he is willing to make Paramount some more Transformers and they make $$ then go for it... wishing for films to fail is like a sad commentary on how you view other's success and seems pretty selfish to me (but thats me trying to NOT psychoanalyze a lot of the people on this board )

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

My goodness Cannastop - Zoo is having a great run and no I didn't say this Monday would be it's biggest yet because that wasn't a guarantee but if you look I told you it would have a drop of 25-30% from Sunday to Monday. Sheesh, not everything should have to be spelled out or expected, Films that have holidays later in their runs do have days higher than those at the beginning - I don't think it's something to get overly excited about and next Monday when the gross is less than 1m that will be normal as well.

My goodness, narniadis, just because I point out that something is unexpected doesn't mean you have to be a wet blanket.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

14 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

So, wait, Zootopia's definitely getting $300M+ DOM, no? I sure hope so.

At this point, I'd be very surprised if it didn't.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

My goodness, narniadis, just because I point out that something is unexpected doesn't mean you have to be a wet blanket.

 

It's not unexpected - that was my point - Same as when it drops below a million next monday (because of an -85% fall) - it will be behaving normal for a film released at this time of year.

 

And not a wet blanket - I am glad it's doing well and am excited that Disney will get only their second 300m animated film outside of Frozen in the past 20 years as a Disney fan that makes me happy.

Edited March 29, 2016 by narniadis

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

WLlll this break 1B?

 

The movie will need to gross more than 1B to break even, accounting for production costs, promotion+advertisement+marketing, distribution off-the-top, participation, overhead etc.

 

I think it'll end at 375M domestic.

 

No it doesnt have to gross a bilkion To break even. Thats absurd

[aliadiere29]

People always seem to forget all the big advertising money these big blockbuster movies make before the movie is even released.

[stripe]

I think it's pretty obvious BvS will finish around 400M DOM, which is really strong, no matter what fans or haters say about it.

 

Also, I don't feel this will have worse legs than Iron Man 3. It will face zero new competition in its 2nd and 3rd weekend, while IM3 had to compete against Gatsby (50M) and STiD (70M).

[baumer]

Do you guys remember in 2009 when Star Trek came out and it grossed a very underwhelming amount worldwide? And people end up telling me that the gross was fine simply because it was the beginning of a new Star Trek Adventure. They needed that movie to establish the new Star Trek universe so the gross while nice really wasn't the most important part of the actual film. The most important part was getting it out there and getting it established for a new generation. Obviously the gross for Batman vs Superman is somewhat important but whether it makes 900 million or 1.1 billion dollars this is the beginning of their new franchise. This is to launch everything else. So yes the money is important but it's not as important as getting it out there and launching it and giving us their version of what Marvel has done.

[Deep Wang]

I've lived in Texas my whole life, and I'm a Christian, and I had never heard of "Easter Monday" before either.  But last year, we did 2400 people on a freaking Monday(it's actually close to what we did on Jurassic World's first Monday during summer).  Yesterday we "only" did 1500, but we're down across the board this year, and that's close to some of our Friday numbers recently.

 

It might not be everywhere, but it is a thing.  

[baumer]

And for films like this everyone here knows that what it makes at the theater is just a small portion of what it will actually make overall. The merchandising for this itself should do very well and then you have all of the other ancillary  mediums that will make money from. So to say that it needs a billion dollars to break even is just kind of silly.

[syntaxerror]

4 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

No it doesnt have to gross a bilkion To break even. Thats absurd

 

I think it does.

 

Minimum 250 production + 150 advertising + (at least) 100 participation (thats an expensive cast! Snyder isn't cheap either!). Thats 500M. Then considering theatre/studio split of BO revenues are either 50/50 domestic or 60/40 overseas, sometimes even worse for studios in China, 1B may be necessary. 

[Hatebox]

3 minutes ago, syntaxerror said:

 

I think it does.

 

Minimum 250 production + 150 advertising + (at least) 100 participation (thats an expensive cast! Snyder isn't cheap either!). Thats 500M.

 

That's a pretty big assumption. Only Affleck would be expensive, and still not nearly that expensive.

 

ETA - nvm, apparently Deadline agrees with you (albeit as an estimate).

Edited March 29, 2016 by Hatebox