Weekend Estimates : BVS 52.39M | Zootopia 20M | Wedding 11.13M | God's Not Dead 8.1M | Sun Rth - Bvs 12 or 14.2, Zoo 5.3, MBFGW2 2.8, GND2 2

[Olive]

Several movie dropped more than 45% same Sunday last year.

Kingsman even fell more than 50%.

I think its a bit over 12m for BvS.

[ecstasy]

1 minute ago, somebody85 said:

Hasn't the number rth posted been mostly in the left hand corner though? Unless he searched for issue 142.

I dunno I'm confused. 12 is much more apparent.

Actually you are right. Price 15=15m, Rating 12=12m, Issue #85=8.5m all from the left hand corner.

[Finnick]

I think it is 12m, well Saturday bump was due to the rush of the fanboys to save the movie, then we are back to the roll out!!!!

[somebody85]

Just now, ecstasy said:

Actually you are right. Price 15=15m, Rating 12=12m, Issue #85=8.5m all from the left hand corner.

I just can't see him searching issue 142. They have all been in the left hand corner.

Plus 12 is more believable to me with all the factors BvS faced.

[White as Snow]

The image he used is named 'wf142.png', so it's most probably 14.2.

[somebody85]

31 minutes ago, Nosferatu Zodd said:

If it's 12 we know whose skull Negan cracked open.

 

7 months.....

[ecstasy]

1 minute ago, White as Snow said:

The image he used is named 'wf142.png', so it's most probably 14.2.

Great detective work!

[somebody85]

5 minutes ago, White as Snow said:

The image he used is named 'wf142.png', so it's most probably 14.2.

Yeah he had to search issue 142, nearly all the comics say 12c. If he searched 12, that image would not have shown up.

I dunno, yeah I'm going to say it's 14.2 too even though it's in a different place.

 

[Sam]

We're all scrambling in speculations and doubts over a simple picture.

 

Well played @Rth! 

[a2k]

What do you think Rth googled - a 12c comic book knowing the number was 12, or issue #142 knowing it was 14.2

Mon, Tue, Wed and Thu the issue # matched the bo number.

 

Am sure it's 14.2.

If the number is 12 and Rth used a random comic book cover, it would be too much of a coincidence that the cover has issue 142 which is close to WB's 14.5 estimates.

 

I feel Sat will go down to 22.2 giving a Sunday drop of 36% for 14.2

15.25 + 22.2 + 14.20 = 51.65m down from 52.38m

 

If the no comes at at 12 then Rth used significant planning to tease us.

[Talkie]

I prefer to wait for actuals rather than engage in a pointless guessing game. Until the numbers come in WB's spin game is much more enjoyable.

 

 

Box Office: 'Batman v Superman' Plunges 68% To $52.4 Miliion

Zack Snyder's Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice plunged an estimated 68 percent in its second weekend — one of the biggest drops in history for a marquee superhero title — even as it easily stayed No. 1.

The Warner Bros. title earned $52.4 million from 4,256 theaters, less than anticipated, for a domestic total of $261.5 million. Final weekend numbers will be tallied Monday.

 Heading into the weekend, some analysts thought BvS would pull in north of $60 million, considering it had little competition (no new major studio title opened nationwide).

Warners and Snyder have plenty riding on BvS, which launches the DC cinematic universe, including two Justice League movies — the first of which Snyder is presently shooting — and this summer's Suicide Squad.

BvS is also seeing big drops in some key international markets. Overall, the movie fell 67 percent internationally to $85 million from 67 markets for a foreign total of $421.4 million and global haul of $682.9 million. BvS has slowed dramatically in China, where it was beat byZootopia this weekend. It has earned $85 million in the Middle Kingdom to date.

Dismal reviews and a B CinemaScore are no doubt catching up with the superhero smackdown, which teams Batman (Ben Affleck) and Superman (Henry Cavill) on the big screen for the first time. And it has already eclipsed the entire lifetime gross of Snyder's Man of Steel($668 million).

Among other superhero movies, Avengers: Age of Ultron fell 59 percent in its second weekend and The Dark Knight slipped 53 percent. The only major studio superhero movie to see a decline approaching 70 percent was X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which fell 69 percent in its second outing. Man of Steel dipped 65 percent.

Warner Bros. also dismisses any concern, saying BvS remains a formidable player after breaking a number of records in its debut, including nabbing the best March opening of all time domestically and the No. 1 superhero debut at the worldwide box office. The studio also notes it has already passed the entire lifetime runs of titles including Ant-Man, Thor, Wolverine and Captain America.

"We're not concerned with the drop," said Warners domestic distribution chief Jeff Goldstein. "No matter how you slice it, to get to $52 million on any given weekend is an enormous accomplishment. We’re most focused on where we are in total. And our global number is huge."

[MikeQ]

Every time rth has used a comic book to reference a daily number, it has always been using the issue number. He's been consistent on that matter, even with a bunch of other numbers on the comics he's used. Thus, unless rth is suddenly wanting to throw us a loop, $14.2 million is the number.

 

Peace,

Mike

[MikeQ]

If $14.2 million holds up as the eventual Sunday number, and Friday and Saturday are as estimated, WB only overestimated the weekend by about $400,000, and the weekend actual will be ~$52 million, and a ~68.7% drop from it's opening weekend.

 

Peace,

Mike

[JonathanLB]

I find it a bit interesting to talk about a movie being a success when it cannot hold up whatsoever after opening weekend. I mean, the OW is pretty much completely unaffected by word of mouth, reviews, or any external factors. It's completely fan-driven and marketing-driven. It's AFTER that where the movie is a success or failure and BVS is a complete failure. 

 

I guess if you want to look at pure dollars, it's kind of a wash, but to call it a big hit or a success is a total joke and just fanboy wishful thinking. This movie needed to generate a positive response -- and hopefully a very positive one -- to accomplish WB's larger goals. It won't do that, or anything even approaching that. And at $900M worldwide box office, it's unlikely to do any better than break even, if it can even do that well. The domestic total is more important than overseas, they're not taking home 50 cents of every dollar from foreign box offices, it ain't happening. Not even CLOSE, frankly, especially not China. So if you think that it makes $900M and they keep $450M, you're wrong. It's much more likely they keep $350M to $400M of that total, which goes entirely to the production budget and marketing.

 

That leaves home video, TV sales, and merchandising revenue to make profits, which of course can contribute quite a nice take. I would believe all-in they could certainly see $100M profit on the film after all is said and done, which is a LOT of money, but it's not earth shattering.

 

Everything is defined by its expectations and that's a critical thing some people want to ignore for their own peace of mind. There is no such thing as a universal bar for success or failure, unless you are talking like, "Every movie that makes $2 billion worldwide is a success," well, yeah, ok. That's true. But a small budget horror film that makes $25M could be considered a massive hit and a big winner for the studio and its producers, whereas a movie like BVS would be considered one of the biggest failures of all time if it made "just" $200M total. Clearly that's not happening, and the strength of the opening weekend guaranteed SOME level of "success," in a very general sense, but compared to expectations I would say anywhere between disappointment and large disappointment. It is absolutely a film that you'd expect $450M to $600M from if everything goes well, with $600M being potentially unrealistic (although, Avengers did it, 4 years ago...). The WAY a movie gets to a milestone does matter, too. If it got 85% positive reviews, opened to $100M, and ended at $400M, generating a ton of goodwill for the new DCU and everyone walking away with pretty positive vibes, it's definitely a hit. And $400M is still a nice milestone.

 

But a movie that can't find a way to make much more than twice its OW is fucking pathetic by any way to measure numbers and anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves. This movie is an epic bomb after OW. You take away that $166M and what you have left is a pretty disastrous run from there on out, and I don't see that storyline changing.

[eXtacy]

Rth's cover is more controversial then this movie, lol

[DeeCee]

The @Rth Comic Book Cover Interpretation Thread

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

The @Rth Comic Book Cover Interpretation Thread

 

It won't reach 265m dom if the Sunday is only 12 cents.

[TimmyRiggins]

Like the Deadline calculation showed it, they'll still make profit off of it, north of 200 million with all revenues factored in, and that's not counting I think the fact that the BD/VOD releases could overperform if the ultimate cut is really good.

 

Next time with JL, just get good reviews if possible, and the WOM will be there, and like magic, the legs will be there. At least, they know how well it opened and how it's doing with really bad reviews and extremely mixed WOM, they have all the cards in hand to make adjustements.

[CJohn]

@Chewy YOUR AVATAR

 

[Ethan Hunt]

6 hours ago, department store basement said:

 

Nope.

 

There are ZERO movies so far this year that I've given higher than a B+. I can't see that changing until Oscar season, even with rewatches.

Ummm... That's pretty depressing dude