Weekend Thread | The Jungle Book - Early Weekend Estimates 101m - 103m (DHD - Page 59) (Fri 32m, Sat 41.5m-42m) | RTH Saturday Early Est = 40-44M (Page 46) | Barbershop TNC - Est 20.4m (DHD) | Boss -59% | Hardcore Henry epic -71%

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

The Jungle Book just had a $104m opening weekend in April.  

 

There is 0% chance that Finding Dory and Rogue One aren't locks to have $100m opening weekends.  

People said there was 0% chance Deadpool would beat BvS. And here we are.

 

Anyway, I just said they are not locks. I have Rogue One doing like 150M OW right now  

[Krissykins]

BVS worldwide update now $829.3m

 

as opposed to $827m yesterday. Must have been underestimated internationally by about $1.5-$2.0m.

[Jordanstine]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Yes, it's B.O. is noteworthy. 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/

 

It's on track to be he first movie (of 37) to open over $100m with a multiplier below than 2x  

Of films with the top 188 o/w it's on track to only be the fourth to have a multiplier below 2x

 

7	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	WB	$166,007,347	53.30%	4,242	$39,134	$311,311,730	3/25/2016
150	Watchmen	WB	$55,214,334	51.40%	3,611	$15,291	$107,509,799	3/6/2009
59	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$85,171,450	51.30%	3,646	$23,360	$166,167,230	2/13/2015
140	Valentine's Day	WB (NL)	$56,260,707	50.90%	3,665	$15,351	$110,485,654	2/12/2010

 

 

 

Is BvS still a lock to make $900 million?

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:

 

Is BvS still a lock to make $900 million?

No.

[SWXII]

 

6m6 minutes ago

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

THE BOSS took in $9.96M this weekend and has grossed $40.14M to date domestically. #TheBoss

[The Panda]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

People said there was 0% chance Deadpool would beat BvS. And here we are.

 

Anyway, I just said they are not locks. I have Rogue One doing like 150M OW right now  

 

Finding Dory wouldn't be a lock, but it's a near one.  Rogue One is.

 

And no one even made the Deadpool to BvS comparison until Deadpool did what it did.  

[druv10]

5 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:

 

Is BvS still a lock to make $900 million?

Nah, 900M isn't happening. If it doesn't stabilize OS which is unlikely at this point, it'll finish with 855-860M.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:

 

Is BvS still a lock to make $900 million?

Probably a lock for $870M+ WW. No more than that though.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

18 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:

 

Is BvS still a lock to make $900 million?

 

Eeehh....i don't think so, unfortunately. It'll mostly settle fine in the $850-870M WW-mark. Even lower than Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug, Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies & Spectre. Which.....who would have seen that coming? Performing lower WW-wise, than those 3 movies?

 

Bilbo Baggins & James Bond must be happy about it.

Edited April 18, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[Ezen Baklattan]

It'll be interesting how similar JB and Zootopia's runs will be, moving forward. They should finish close to each other in terms of DOM/WW grosses. It'll also be interesting to see what Disney chooses to bundle for 'fudging' with Civil War. Zoo has enough to get to about $330-335m (Incidentally the same number AIW had), and give The Jungle Book legs between Maleficent and Cinderella and it's in the same range. (With Civil War in the fourth week, this seems pretty reasonable)

 

It's insane that Disney could have three films making a combined $1b DOM for the year before hitting the end of May. The mouse house is in for the kill this year, and that's barring Finding Dory, Doctor Strange, and Rogue One.

[Avatree]

Civil War is the only 100M lock this year.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

Civil War is the only 100M lock this year.

You mean the rest of the year?

 

I'd say Civil War, Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts are all locks. Otherwise, no locks. I think Toy Story 3 is the only Pixar to opens over $100M+ so I can see Dory not being a mortal lock. But, I think it'll do it though.

 

Reasons - Civil War's currently tracking at $175M OW.

 

Fantastic Beasts - Potter movies that opened on a Friday adjusted OW (SS - $138M, CoS $132M, PoA $131M, GoF $139M, DH1 $136M, DH2 $185M) Come on, now, it's locked to do it. Even if it's it's opening's more like $110M+, WB will market the hell out of it and tons and tons of starved Potter fans will turn out to see it.

 

Rogue One - I mean, really? People think it won't open to at least $125M+. Just wait till they show Vader.

Edited April 18, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[RamblinRed]

11 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

It'll be interesting how similar JB and Zootopia's runs will be, moving forward. They should finish close to each other in terms of DOM/WW grosses. It'll also be interesting to see what Disney chooses to bundle for 'fudging' with Civil War. Zoo has enough to get to about $330-335m (Incidentally the same number AIW had), and give The Jungle Book legs between Maleficent and Cinderella and it's in the same range. (With Civil War in the fourth week, this seems pretty reasonable)

 

It's insane that Disney could have three films making a combined $1b DOM for the year before hitting the end of May. The mouse house is in for the kill this year, and that's barring Finding Dory, Doctor Strange, and Rogue One.

Disney is going to likely fly past $1B the first weekend of May. it was at $621MM after last weekend. So after this weekend it should be around $735MM. Should be close to $900MM DOM before CA opens.

 

Disney and WB are really the only 2 studios that are fairly consistent year to year in their DOM grosses and not having really poor years. 

[Avatree]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You mean the rest of the year?

 

I'd say Civil War, Rogue One and Fantastic Beasts are all locks. Otherwise, no locks. I think Toy Story 3 is the only Pixar to opens over $100M+ so I can see Dory not being a mortal lock. But, I think it'll do it though.

How is Fantastic Beasts a lock? It's a spin off with none of the characters - and the entire Harry Potter series appeal revolved around the core characters.

 

You really cannot imagine any situation where Fantastic Beasts makes "only" 99M?

Edited April 18, 2016 by Treetrunk Special

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

It'll be interesting how similar JB and Zootopia's runs will be, moving forward. They should finish close to each other in terms of DOM/WW grosses. It'll also be interesting to see what Disney chooses to bundle for 'fudging' with Civil War. Zoo has enough to get to about $330-335m (Incidentally the same number AIW had), and give The Jungle Book legs between Maleficent and Cinderella and it's in the same range. (With Civil War in the fourth week, this seems pretty reasonable)

 

It's insane that Disney could have three films making a combined $1b DOM for the year before hitting the end of May. The mouse house is in for the kill this year, and that's barring Finding Dory, Doctor Strange, and Rogue One.

 

Zootopia, TJB, CW, Dory, Rogue One - 5 300m+ movies this year. Possibly all of them 1b+ ww. (Zootopia is looking at 985m at least according to it's OS thread. The rest are locked.)

Moana (WDAS) cannot be ruled out either.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

How is Fantastic Beasts a lock? It's a spin off with none of the characters - and the entire Harry Potter series appeal revolved around the core characters.

I don't think people understand what LOCK means Tree. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

How is Fantastic Beasts a lock? It's a spin off with none of the characters - and the entire Harry Potter series appeal revolved around the core characters.

Warner Bros. will wisely market the wizarding world, blare the John Williams theme and show more and more in the trailers/spots to hook Potter fans. Every Harry Potter film released adjusted to a minimum of $131M+ OW.

 

My current expectations are...

Civil War $180M OW

Fantastic Beasts $115M OW

Rogue One $165M OW

Dory - not locked - $110M OW

 

Edited April 18, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

How is Fantastic Beasts a lock? It's a spin off with none of the characters - and the entire Harry Potter series appeal revolved around the core characters.

 

You really cannot imagine any situation where Fantastic Beasts makes "only" 99M?

 

I can see it happening because it's not Harry Potter.  I'm thinking it'll be over 100m, I'm fairly positive about it, but I could see it not.

[Avatree]

3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Warner Bros. will wisely market the wizarding world, blare the John Williams theme and show more and more in the trailers/spots to hook Potter fans. Every Harry Potter film released adjusted to a minimum of $131M+ OW.

I dont think anyone was ever doubting that the hardcore Harry Potter fans will show up. The question is who else will. 100M is very far from guaranteed. You're really saying it's impossible for the movie to open to like 95M?

 

I personally have it at ~70M.

Edited April 18, 2016 by Treetrunk Special

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, The Panda Knight said:

 

I can see it happening because it's not Harry Potter.  I'm thinking it'll be over 100m, I'm fairly positive about it, but I could see it not.

That's exactly it. I can understand someone having the opinion that it will open to 100M, but as far as I'm concerned, "locked" means that you cannot feasibly imagine a situation in which the target is missed.