Weekend Estimates (Page 50): The Conjuring 40.3M | Warcraft 24M | NYSM 23M| TMNT 14.8M | X-Men 10M | Me Before You 9.2M

[filmlover]

Just now, James said:

So did PA2. And that made almost 1/6 of it's OW from midnights alone. Annabelle only made 1/18 from it's OW from midnights. I just want to say that the franchise itself is not very frontloaded when it comes to horror movies. At least not when it comes to midnight/weekend ratio.

Comparing it to Paranormal Activity 2 is useless because that came out in an entirely different box office landscape despite it being just six years ago.

[That One Girl]

Now You See Me - 1.5M

TMNT2 - 2.0M

Grown Ups 2 - 2.3M

White House Down - 1.4M

Think Like a Man 2 - 1.8M

Ted 2 - 2.6M

Magic Mike XXL - 2.4M

Allegiant - 2.4M

The Expendables 2 - 685k

The Expendables 3 - 875k

 

Bumping this up so I can make comparisons without  having to flip through a couple of pages.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

I'm trying to find comparable movies for NYSM2 that actually have preview numbers for them.

 

I came up with NYSM, Red 2, and the two Expendables sequels.  No preview numbers I can find for any of them  

 

NYSM1 did 1.5m

ALL preview numbers in this amazing spreadsheet - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1l98WO6oUuT0o_HRXZWZ5oOKEiAIluseRbYyBevWJY-E/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0

NYSM1 is Row# 274

[department store basement]

Red 2 did 800k

 

[a2k]

NYSM2 1.75M

http://deadline.com/2016/06/warcraft-conjuring-2-now-you-see-me-2-weekend-box-office-1201770307/

Edited June 10, 2016 by a2knet

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Conjuring 2 did more than I thought. Thought Warcraft would for sure do more in previews.

[That One Girl]

Now You See Me - 1.5M

TMNT2 - 2.0M

Grown Ups 2 - 2.3M

White House Down - 1.4M

Think Like a Man 2 - 1.8M

Ted 2 - 2.6M

Magic Mike XXL - 2.4M

Allegiant - 2.4M

The Expendables 2 - 685k

The Expendables 3 - 875k

Red 2 - 800k

 

Wanna keep this updated because for some odd reason, I'm highly anticipating NYSM2's preview numbers  

[WrathOfHan]

Once again slightly ahead of the first's previews, not bad but since it's a sequel it'll be more front loaded.

[James]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Comparing it to Paranormal Activity 2 is useless because that came out in an entirely different box office landscape despite it being just six years ago.

It was six years ago. And the market was much more backloaded then. Which just makes it even more obvious that TC as a franchise has good internal multis. And it is a far better comparison than Deadline's idiotic comparison with the first Purge movie which 1. was an original movie 2. despite having a stronger midnight than the first Conjuring had a way weaker weekend - 34m vs. 41m). At a minimum, being a super frontloaded sequel, TC2 will open to 34m. But that won't happen. There is nothing to indicate that in this franchise so far. If Annabelle, with awful reviews and a way weaker midnight managed 37m+, I think TC2 will manage 40m.

Edited June 10, 2016 by James

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

NYSM2 1.75M - Deadline

Not bad. 25M is the target. 

[That One Girl]

Expecting a 25M OW now, slightly above White House Down

[Blaze Heatnix]

Wow, according to that article ( deadline ), Warcraft needs to make 450 million worldwide, just to break even...:(

 

Hell, that's way too much. I mean, if domestic grosses are insanely low ( less than 100 million ), the movie will really depend on foreign grosses to get a sequel. China's numbers are dropping there.

 

I know the whole Legendary/Wanda deal in China, but if the producers only keep 50% ( let's imagine movie makes 300 million there, which would give them 150 million ), that's still dangerous.

 

They better slash that high budget for the sequel!

[Cmasterclay]

Think Like a Man Too is actually a pretty good comp for NYSM2, disparate as they seem. Moderately received summer sequel to a well-liked and leggy hit that people weren't dying to see again.  This had a similar release date and nearly identical previews, too. That did 29 mill, for reference. 

[That One Girl]

Warcraft: 30M

Conjuring 2: 39M

Now You See Me 2: 25M

 

Good results for all of them IMO

[department store basement]

Judging by the preview number it looks like NYSM2 will reach 25m this weekend.

 

Better than expected given the sequel glut.

[James]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wow, according to that article ( deadline ), Warcraft needs to make 450 million worldwide, just to break even...:(

 

Hell, that's way too much. I mean, if domestic grosses are insanely low ( less than 100 million ), the movie will really depend on foreign grosses to get a sequel. China's numbers are dropping there.

 

I know the whole Legendary/Wanda deal in China, but if the producers only keep 50% ( let's imagine movie makes 300 million there, which would give them 150 million ), that's still dangerous.

 

They better slash that high budget for the sequel!

The post theatrical run will bring a hell lot of money. And the budget is low as it is. 160m in today's blockbuster market is very resonable. All in all, this will make a boatload of cash.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Think Like a Man Too is actually a pretty good comp for NYSM2, disparate as they seem. Moderately received summer sequel to a well-liked and leggy hit that people weren't dying to see again.  This had a similar release date and nearly identical previews, too. That did 29 mill, for reference. 

 

The audience for TLAM2 doesn't exactly seem like the type to rush out for a Thursday preview though, hence my 25M prediction.

[filmlover]

Considering recent sequel trends and the fact this one seemed grossly unnecessary, that seems decent for Now You See Me 2.

[4815162342]

Not horrible for Warcraft.

[That One Girl]

It should have some legs and finish with about 75M.

 

It has a 90M budget though, so it's all on WW numbers to determine if a 3rd film gets made.