Weekend Estimates (Page 50): The Conjuring 40.3M | Warcraft 24M | NYSM 23M| TMNT 14.8M | X-Men 10M | Me Before You 9.2M

[grim22]

Warcraft looks like it will almost definitely break Genisys's record of highest global gross despite not breaking 100M domestic. Maybe 300M in China, 75M domestic and 200-250M elsewhere for 550-600M looking realistic currently.

 

Wonder what the sequel math will look like though considering domestic box office. 

[WrathOfHan]

Realistically I'd say the order of the July 1 releases is Purge, BFG, Shallows, Tarzan. Dory and ID will be above all though.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, department store basement said:

 

Ride Along was a very leggy hit and that didn't help Ride Along 2's legs.

 

With Ride Along 2's legs (2.57 multiplier) and a 25m opening NYSM2 will make 64.4m, just below Allegiant.

NYSM2 is gonna be another Ride Along 2. Around the same OW as the first and far worse legs.

[Maxmoser3]

Really good numbers! The Conjuring 2 and Warcraft could make it over $30 million a piece this weekend. Definitely solid for The Conjuring 2 considering horror sequels are tough at the box office. Warcraft I wonder if the fanbase just saw it or maybe we could have a surpise hit on our hands.

[filmlover]

I'm curious as to how Free State of Jones' reviews will be. STX is giving it a very aggressive ad push, and certainly they must be confident in it to move it close to a prime spot, right? Gary Ross has a strong track record too so maybe a breakout could be in order.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Wow, according to that article ( deadline ), Warcraft needs to make 450 million worldwide, just to break even...:(

 

Hell, that's way too much. I mean, if domestic grosses are insanely low ( less than 100 million ), the movie will really depend on foreign grosses to get a sequel. China's numbers are dropping there.

 

I know the whole Legendary/Wanda deal in China, but if the producers only keep 50% ( let's imagine movie makes 300 million there, which would give them 150 million ), that's still dangerous.

 

They better slash that high budget for the sequel!

although the numbers in China starts to show front loading, 450M WW should still not be a problem at all. But yeah, maybe tighten budget for sequels is a good idea.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I'm curious as to how Free State of Jones' reviews will be. STX is giving it a very aggressive ad push, and certainly they must be confident in it to move it close to a prime spot, right? Gary Ross has a strong track record too so maybe a breakout could be in order.

 

I think it could potentially break 60M.

 

Bad Moms has a shot at 100M IMO, trailer views on YouTube are surprisingly large, and it's a female targeted movie in a prime July spot.  Bad Teacher numbers wouldn't surprise me.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, ThatOneGuy said:

 

I think it could potentially break 60M.

 

Bad Moms has a shot at 100M IMO, trailer views on YouTube are surprisingly large, and it's a female targeted movie in a prime July spot.  Bad Teacher numbers wouldn't surprise me.

Another thing helping Bad Moms is the lack of releases in late August

[That One Girl]

One distributor that completely disappeared was Clarius Entertainment.  They released Legends of Oz, And So It Goes, Before I Go to Sleep, and My All American, and then they were never heard from again.

[Fancyarcher]

29 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Next weekend will be the savior

 

In Dory we trust.

[filmlover]

Just now, ThatOneGuy said:

One distributor that completely disappeared was Clarius Entertainment.  They released Legends of Oz, And So It Goes, Before I Go to Sleep, and My All American, and then they were never heard from again.

The Destination Films (remember them? Yeah, didn't think so) of the 2010s.

[department store basement]

2 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

One distributor that completely disappeared was Clarius Entertainment.  They released Legends of Oz, And So It Goes, Before I Go to Sleep, and My All American, and then they were never heard from again.

 

Anyone else remember ThinkFilm? They released Before The Devil Knows You're Dead among others. They completely disappeared too.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

The Destination Films (remember them? Yeah, didn't think so) of the 2010s.

At first I thought you meant Dimension  

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

In Dory we trust.

Pray for Dory !

[Blaze Heatnix]

6 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

although the numbers in China starts to show front loading, 450M WW should still not be a problem at all. But yeah, maybe tighten budget for sequels is a good idea.

 

 

Exactly. Warcraft has a budget higher than a lot of Marvel movies...That's absurd for a movie based on a game.  It's actually more expensive than any of the LOTR movies.

 

100 million-115 million budget should be the top, if it's necessary. Anything more than that, it's laughable.

[Arlborn]

12 minutes ago, ThatOneGuy said:

 

The difference is...

 

Ride Along 1's multiplier - 3.25 (with a boost from a 4-day weekend)

Ride Along 2 - 2.57

 

NYSM had a 4.01x multiplier.  Much higher than Ride Along's multiplier.

Those legs were so damn surprising. I'm sorry for everyone who says this was an unnecessary sequel but those legs kinda justify making a sequel.

[That One Girl]

STX could end up being a major studio one day if it releases some bigger hits.  Its been relatively successful so far. 

[department store basement]

1 minute ago, Arlborn said:

Those legs were so damn surprising. I'm sorry for everyone who says this was an unnecessary sequel but those legs kinda justify making a sequel.

 

You know what also got a 4x multiplier?

 

Ted.

[That One Girl]

Just now, department store basement said:

 

You know what also got a 4x multiplier?

 

Ted.

 

But that was much more of a gimmick.  Plus people began to lose their trust in MacFarlane after A Million Ways.

[WrathOfHan]

STX got a big get on those international rights for Scorsese's next movie with De Niro and Pacino.