Wednesday numbers Pets 6.3, GB 4.25, FTF 1.6 The V 1.37

[Nova]

33 minutes ago, xequalsy said:

Sadly it flat out doesn't matter what it makes DOM, it'll more than make profit WW.

 

We did see some major drops from IA4 in several OS, but still enough to make a lot of money. Definitely see at least an IA6.

Maybe earth itself will experience an ice age before that happens and we won't have to be subjected to another damn Ice Age film. 

Edited July 21, 2016 by Nova

[grey ghost]

47 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

Ghostbusters Sequel Direct to TV.

 

Did you guys hear?

 

Divergent 4 might go Direct to TV.

[Fancyarcher]

18 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's actually not that hot around the world.

 

If it really only makes $20m on its opening weekend, it's over for good.

 

Which is good, since The Ice Age franchise has gone on long enough at this point.

[mahnamahna]

July 2016 has returned to the typical summer format that May/June skipped out on. Jason Bourne, Bad Moms and Suicide Squad should all be solid hits, too. 

 

This next weekend is looking solid 

1. Star Trek Beyond: $63 million 
2. The Secret Life of Pets: $26.5 million ($257 million)
3. Lights Out: $22 million
4. Ghostbusters: $19 million ($84 million) 
5. Ice Age - Collision Course: $17 million 
6. The Legend of Tarzan: $6.5 million ($116 million) 
7. Finding Dory: $6 million ($459 million)
8. Hillary's America: $5 million 
9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million 
10. Central Intelligence: $3.5 million ($124 million) 

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

It's actually not that hot around the world.

 

If it really only makes $20m on its opening weekend, it's over for good.

 

With other unwanted sequels plummeting this summer (Neighbors 2, NYSM2, Alice 2, TMNT2, IDR), I wouldn't be shocked if IA5 only does $60-70 million DOM. Pets and Dory will combine for $750-800 million DOM and BFG adds another $50-55 million. And Pete's Dragon/Kubo will hurt it, too. 

 

 

 

 

 

[cannastop]

Just now, mahnamahna said:

 

With other unwanted sequels plummeting this summer (Neighbors 2, NYSM2, Alice 2, TMNT2, IDR), I wouldn't be shocked if IA5 only does $60-70 million DOM. Pets and Dory will combine for $750-800 million DOM and BFG adds another $50-55 million. And Pete's Dragon/Kubo will hurt it, too. 

 

 

 

 

 

You can't fault Fox for making this one, though. Did you even see what Ice Age 3 and 4 made ww? It's nothing at all like those other examples, where they only had one successful movie before.

[mahnamahna]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You can't fault Fox for making this one, though. Did you even see what Ice Age 3 and 4 made ww? It's nothing at all like those other examples, where they only had one successful movie before.

 

 

I know this, but the franchise is clearly tired and Dory/Pets will combine for $800 million DOM when all is said and done. Possibly $850 million DOM if Pets and Dory develop extraordinary late legs. 

 

Star Trek 3 and GB have a little family appeal. Pete's Dragon/Nine Lives/Kubo all take away its already meager family audience, too. 

 

It'll make enough not to bomb ($60-80 million DOM and $200-250 million OS would still result in a tiny profit or breaking even before Netflix/cable), but I think they'll stick to Scrat shorts and DTV sequels after this one. 

Edited July 21, 2016 by mahnamahna

[Captain Craig]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Feeling 18-19 for GB 2nd weekend.

I was always feeling that to be a likely case with 55% drop being a best case scenario. 

[James]

18 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

I know this, but the franchise is clearly tired and Dory/Pets will combine for $800 million DOM when all is said and done. Possibly $850 million DOM if Pets and Dory develop extraordinary late legs. 

 

Star Trek 3 and GB have a little family appeal. Pete's Dragon/Nine Lives/Kubo all take away its already meager family audience, too. 

 

It'll make enough not to bomb ($60-80 million DOM and $200-250 million OS would still result in a tiny profit or breaking even before Netflix/cable), but I think they'll stick to Scrat shorts and DTV sequels after this one. 

Considering it is already at 135m OS, after a 53m OS weekend and still has China + some other markets to open, I'd say 400m OS is all but locked. Add in 60-80M DOM and you have a 460-480m total on a 100m budget and thats not even counting DVD/Blu + TV + merchandise. Even with the huge fall it will still be insanely profitable. Fox would be dumb not to make another one. 

Edited July 21, 2016 by James

[baumer]

I think Ice Age makes way more than 400 WW.

 

And Lights Out was pretty full and it scared the hell oit of all the screaming teenage girls. It will probably have good WOM

[filmlover]

Horror movies are the only kind of movies where I don't mind annoying teenagers.

[grim22]

This just showed up on my Twitter feed, and apparently this was one of the few "viral" promotion bits that Independence Day: Resurgence tried towards release day.

 

 

They were truly desperate at the end weren't they?

[Olive]

IA5 is dropping more than half from last one in Europe, and it won't increase in China since it opens same day with Bourne 5.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Olive said:

IA5 is dropping more than half from last one in Europe, and it won't increase in China since it opens same day with Bourne 5.

Is Bourne going to do that well in China though?

[Olive]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Is Bourne going to do that well in China though?

I think it will, the Bourne trilogy is well-received here.

[Arlborn]

8 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Theater Counts for Weekend of July 15

Movie	Distributor	Theaters	Previous Theaters	Change
The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	4,046	4,381	-335
Ice Age: Collision Course	20th Century Fox	3,992		new
Star Trek Beyond	Paramount Pictures	3,928		new
The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	2,844	3,551	-707
Lights Out	Warner Bros.	2,818		new
Finding Dory	Walt Disney	2,576	3,536	-960
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	20th Century Fox	2,137	3,008	-871
The Purge: Election Year	Universal	1,691	2,671	-980
Central Intelligence	Warner Bros.	1,602	2,381	-779
Independence Day: Resurgence	20th Century Fox	730	2,290	-1,560
The BFG	Walt Disney	686	2,182	-1,496
Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	20th Century Fox	313		new
Me Before You	Warner Bros.	254	238	+16
The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros.	235	566	-331
The Jungle Book	Walt Disney	233	276	-43
Captain America: Civil War	Walt Disney	116	184	-68
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Paramount Pictures	114	185	-71
Warcraft	Universal	104	149	-45
Our Kind of Traitor	Roadside Attractions	88	262	-174
Love & Friendship	Roadside Attractions	88	140	-52
Zootopia	Walt Disney	84	131	-47
Alice Through the Looking Glass	Walt Disney	78	107	-29
The Nice Guys	Warner Bros.	76	144	-68
Genius	Roadside Attractions	30	51	-21
Hello, My Name is Doris	Roadside Attractions	6	7	-1

How come Me Before You got some new theaters?

[a2k]

3.7 (-13%)

5.5 (+51.4%)

7.5 (+36%)

5.7 (-24%)

18.7 (-59.4%)

If Thu comes at 3.8, the weekend will be 19.2 (-58.3%) with these FSS %.

[a2k]

If IA5's OS falls 50% from IA4's OS, it will do 358 (opposed to IA4's 715)

Not bullish on DOM. Say 92, for 358 + 92 = 450 WW. 

imo it will at least do that around that. ~520 on the high-end I guess.

 

KFP3 did 519.7 - that's a great target for IA5.

Edited July 22, 2016 by a2knet

[zackzack]

11 hours ago, La Binoche said:

Dory is at 450m+ already? I think another 50m or so before summer's over is possible... 

 

Dory is not experiencing Zootopia's sub 40% drops so it is likely to end up at $470M - $480M range.

Unless Disney keeps it longer in theatres which is not likely because they know Dory would make

more money on BluRay & DVD (my god they still selling those things!)

[bladels]

1 hour ago, zackzack said:

 

Dory is not experiencing Zootopia's sub 40% drops so it is likely to end up at $470M - $480M range.

Unless Disney keeps it longer in theatres which is not likely because they know Dory would make

more money on BluRay & DVD (my god they still selling those things!)

I can't understand your math. How can Dory only make another $19M? Dory's dailies are slightly behind TS3 and slightly above Inside Out, both of them make ~$46M after this point. Dory is dropping harder than them but $19M, HOW? 

[a2k]

1.4 Thu (-15%) + 6 Weekend, will give DORY a cume of

451.4 + 1.4 + 6 = 458.8

 

It's making a lot of money on Mon-Thu. With ~1.4 on Thu, the current Mon-Thu will be 1.72 + 2.30 + 1.64+ 1.40 = 7.

 

If after weekdays of 7, and weekend of 6, it reaches 458.8, how much more can it add?

Won't it add ~11 more in all the other weekdays combined, and ~11 more in all the other weekends combined, including dollar bump and all?

That'll take it to ~481.

I think 485 is realistic.