Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[POTUS 2020]

Fugly all around

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-weekend-box-office-doctor-strange-bleed-for-this-1201856955/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3RD UPDATE, Friday 11:52 PM, Refresh for chart:Warner Bros.’  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is weaving an estimated $72.8M weekend that’s so strong, it’s taking the air out of the market for holdovers, and mowing down a slew of adult newcomers including STX Entertainment’s The Edge of Seventeen ($5.3M), Open Road’s Bleed For This ($2.3M) and Sony’s wide expansion ofBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk ($1.1M) –

Edited November 19, 2016 by POTUS

[Jonwo]

Through creative accounting, Forrest Gump and Lord of the Rings were money losers, this is why actors and other creatives ask for percentage of gross and not share of profits

[YSLDC]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Pay TV networks they own, like TBS, TNT, CW etc. ridiculous amounts of money for an ad slot at strange times, pay themselves a distribution fee, pay the shell companies set up to make the movie interest costs and it all adds up. Hollywood accounting exists to pretty much ensure that no movie ever makes a profit so that net participation is never ever paid out.

What about reputation? WB movies this year - BvS, Tarzan and SS - are in the spotlight for not breaking even, even though they made about 2 billion combined. They like to paint themselves as incompetent? 

[James]

6 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Fugly all around

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-weekend-box-office-doctor-strange-bleed-for-this-1201856955/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3RD UPDATE, Friday 11:52 PM, Refresh for chart:Warner Bros.’  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them is weaving an estimated $72.8M weekend that’s so strong, it’s taking the air out of the market for holdovers, and mowing down a slew of adult newcomers including STX Entertainment’s The Edge of Seventeen ($5.3M), Open Road’s Bleed For This ($2.3M) and Sony’s wide expansion ofBilly Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk ($1.1M) –

That's just early estimate and I doubt it goes that low.

However, I find that article absolutely ridiculous. They are asking themselves if a 750-800m WW grosser would be enough to kick off a new franchise. Are you fuckin kiddin me? It makes me mad. Yeah, it did not reach Potter heights. Yeah, I wish it would have. But this is still a huge win. At this point I am a bit angry at WB for not making the Potter connection more clear in their marketing. But even Deadline shows that the early signs point to great WOM. I am hoping for the best.

[grim22]

Just now, YSLDC said:

What about reputation? WB movies this year - BvS, Tarzan and SS - are in the spotlight for not breaking even, even though they made about 2 billion combined. They like to paint themselves as incompetent? 

 

 

The entire point is that we don't know if and when movies break even. Movies now have way more sources of revenue than just theatrical + home video. For example, Bond movies always come in with promotional partners which offset budget and P&A. It frankly does not matter to studios what external reputation is with regards to profitability since they are the only people who know internals. Its like The Producers - if everyone thinks your movies didn't make money, you even save on having to pay anything on the profits.

 

We will know if movies don't make money anymore, that is when studio heads get fired in the end. If a studio head's job is secure, that means the movies are making money. Even Tarzan, which was supposed to be the big bomb of summer, will almost surely end up making money for WB in the end.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

What about reputation? WB movies this year - BvS, Tarzan and SS - are in the spotlight for not breaking even, even though they made about 2 billion combined. They like to paint themselves as incompetent? 

 

BvS and SS likely will break even and make a profit from ancillary revenues.

[Finnick]

IF DOCTOR STRANGE FOLLOW SPECTRE/THOR2 TREND IT WILL HAVE A  17.2M WEEKEND

 

Edited November 19, 2016 by Finnick

[Jonwo]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

The entire point is that we don't know if and when movies break even. Movies now have way more sources of revenue than just theatrical + home video. For example, Bond movies always come in with promotional partners which offset budget and P&A. It frankly does not matter to studios what external reputation is with regards to profitability since they are the only people who know internals. Its like The Producers - if everyone thinks your movies didn't make money, you even save on having to pay anything on the profits.

 

We will know if movies don't make money anymore, that is when studio heads get fired in the end. If a studio head's job is secure, that means the movies are making money. Even Tarzan, which was supposed to be the big bomb of summer, will almost surely end up making money for WB in the end.

 

It helps in the case of WB that they own the DC characters so they get a cut from any licensing from the movies. In the case of BvS, they had product placements and partnerships with Turkish Airlines and other brands. 

[TalismanRing]

This days old.  How did I not know this already?

Anime master Hayao Miyazaki is coming out of retirement to make one last film

 

http://www.theverge.com/2016/11/14/13621108/hayao-miyazaki-last-film-boro-the-caterpillar

[grim22]

Wonder what takes Deadline so long to put up the chart once their analysis article is up. Been 45 minutes since the article posted, numbers should be easier to gather and post for sure.

[James]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The entire point is that we don't know if and when movies break even. Movies now have way more sources of revenue than just theatrical + home video. For example, Bond movies always come in with promotional partners which offset budget and P&A. It frankly does not matter to studios what external reputation is with regards to profitability since they are the only people who know internals. Its like The Producers - if everyone thinks your movies didn't make money, you even save on having to pay anything on the profits.

 

We will know if movies don't make money anymore, that is when studio heads get fired in the end. If a studio head's job is secure, that means the movies are making money. Even Tarzan, which was supposed to be the big bomb of summer, will almost surely end up making money for WB in the end.

This.

 

And honestly, this is The Wizarding World we're talking about. Even if these movies were only making 500m WW each, the overall win for WB would still be enormous. The merchandise alone would add billions. I don't think most people realize that these movies, as profitable as they are, are just huge advertising for much more pricier stuff.

 

Side note: FB registered a huge 91k tweets yesterday with extremely positive pos:neg ratio (28:1). Today starts with an incredible 129:1 pos:neg ratio. And most of that comes from the US probably, considering it's still early in the morning in Europe. Anecdotal, I know, but that is waaaay better than what DS had, and that one had excellent WOM. My point is, I don't think this will act as a Potter movie at all. 

[TLK]

$800 million WW should be more than enough to kick-start a franchise but under $700 million could be a problem if the first movie had the goodwill from the original HP movies that may not be there for the sequels. Kind of the same issue that TFA had. SW8 has the advantage that even if it drops big from SW7 it will probably still make $1.4-1.5 billion.

[James]

1 minute ago, TLK said:

$800 million WW should be more than enough to kick-start a franchise but under $700 million could be a problem if the first movie had the goodwill from the original HP movies that may not be there for the sequels. Kind of the same issue that TFA had. SW8 has the advantage that even if it drops big from SW7 it will probably still make $1.4-1.5 billion.

I fully agree with you. But if it gets to 800m that will be with good legs which would mean it was well received. At this point, I think tha would please most people, since the sequel has something FB1 hadn't. Unlike The Hobbit for example, which crammed the most import connection it got (Gollum) into the first movie, FB had nothing. But it will have Dumbledore reintroduced in the second movie. Now some people might argue that is not a big deal, but just yesterday I read this in the FB thread:

 

16 hours ago, wildphantom said:

$8.7 million. Fine. But where the hell are the fans?! Such a weird year this has been at the box office. 

If the old hardcore HP fans are anything like me (this will be the first HP movie I don't see on OD since the first one), they just aren't invested in this story. As much as the fans love JKR, I can't imagine any fan has ever thought, "You know what I want next from the universe? A 5-part film series about Newt Scamander, that guy who was literally just a random name in the HP books, and who was never even brought up in the movies!" This isn't the story fans really wanted or cared about seeing.

 

An actual, non-Cursed Child related sequel? A series about Harry's parents' time at Hogwarts, fully displaying the friendship and fallout of Snape and Lily? A daring series spanning much of Dumbledore's early life, from his teen/young adult years, displaying his complicated relationship and infatuation with Grindelwald, to his rise to power, and ending with his (potentially heartbreaking) final showdown with Grindelwald? I can see those generating far more interest.

 

This was a HP fan not even knowing that the franchise would move in that direction. With much bigger stakes, this and a well received first movie, I could see the second movie at least staying flat WW, if not increasing.

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, James said:

That's just early estimate and I doubt it goes that low.

However, I find that article absolutely ridiculous. They are asking themselves if a 750-800m WW grosser would be enough to kick off a new franchise. Are you fuckin kiddin me? It makes me mad. Yeah, it did not reach Potter heights. Yeah, I wish it would have. But this is still a huge win. At this point I am a bit angry at WB for not making the Potter connection more clear in their marketing. But even Deadline shows that the early signs point to great WOM. I am hoping for the best.

 

 

its an update at 1130PM PST. That is not early. 

 

How will it gross 800m WW with 180m domestic. I think that is way too optimistic considering its well below potter in most markets. I would say 650-700m WW is more likely end state. Japan is another market that will see a big drop from potter(very rarely anything breaks out).

[Finnick]

DHD

 

1). Fantastic Beasts…  (WB), 4,144 theaters / $29.4M Fri. (includes $8.75M)/ 3-day cume: $72.8M /Wk 1

 

2.) Trolls  (DWA/20^th Century Fox), 3,945 theaters (-121) / $4M Fri. (-67%) / 3-day cume: $17.46M (-50%) /Total Cume: $116.1M/Wk 3

 

3). Doctor Strange  (DIS), 3,694 theaters (-188) / $4.96M Fri. (-67%)/ 3-day cume: $17.4M(-59%) /Total cume: $181.3M/Wk 3

 

4). Arrival  (PAR), 2,335 theaters (+18) / $3.35M Fri. (-64%) / 3-day cume: $11.3M (-53%)/Total:$42.9M/ Wk 2

 

5). Almost Christmas  (UNI), 2,379 theaters (+3) / $1.9M Fri. (-68%) / 3-day cume: $6.7M (-57%)/Total: $25M/ Wk 2

 

6). Hacksaw Ridge  (Lionsgate), 2,883 theaters (-88) / $1.92M Fri. (-49%) /$6.5M 3-day (-55%)/Total: $42.6M/ Wk 3

 

7.) The Edge of Seventeen (STX) 1,945 theaters/ $1.7M Fri./3-day: $5.3M/wk 1

 

8.) Bleed For This (OR) 1,549 theaters/ $783K Fri./3-day: $2.275M/wk 1

Edited November 19, 2016 by Finnick

[James]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

 

its an update at 1130PM PST. That is not early. 

 

How will it gross 800m WW with 180m domestic. I think that is way too optimistic considering its well below potter in most markets. I would say 650-700m WW is more likely end state. Japan is another market that will see a big drop from potter(very rarely anything breaks out).

It is a weekend estimate after not even having the Friday estimate. Ofc it is early. That is why weekend estimates are later in the weekend. What the hell man, it's like you are so blinded by your dislike for this for some reason that your forget it is barely Sat morning and this is Deadline we're talking about.

[DAJK]

Despite my better judgement, and the fact that I'm ridiculously tired, I watched Beasts tonight.

 

maybe it was cause I'm tired and was trying just to stay awake in the trailers but I was extremely disappointed. Wasn't a bad movie by any means, and when I get rid of my expectations is was a competently written and directed film with good acting and effects. It's 1AM and I work the matinee tomorrow so I don't want to get into specifics tonight but there was real structure and is potential for a great story here, this just felt like an introduction. But not the same as Philosopher's Stone, rather like The Hobbit 1 to Potter's Fellowship of the Ring

[Heretic]

29.5m is pretty good considering the previews. After seeing it yesterday, I really hope it has a strong Saturday and can manage at 75m this weekend. The fact it did more than 2/3 of its OD business during Friday is a promising start. I don't think a 2.6x multiplier is such a stretch, 200m isn't gone yet. 

 

[Fullbuster]

$700m-750m WW seems to be the potential, going beyond $800m could be difficult with Moana, Rogue One and Passengers stealing it screens and viewers, and if it's too weak DOM that could be even harder It's better to keep our expectations in check for this. Anyway, 5 movies doing between $700m and $1B WW would be quite profitable and WB would be fine with it, nothing to be sad about, particularly if you add DVD/Blu-Ray/VOD sales.

[MrHardapple]

So Hacksaw Ridge might be #5 this weekend...