Weekend Numbers: Fantastic Beasts 75M, Strange 17.6M, Trolls 17.5M, Arrival 11.8M, Edge of 17 4.8M, Bleed 2.35M, Billy Lynn 930k

[Jake Gittes]

Arrival is doing fine. This weekend is generally brutal for all movies. It'll drop 50-52% and recover after that. Skyfall opened on an identical weekend, dropped 53% the next weekend, still legged it out to 3.45x in the end. And that's without any presence in the main Oscar categories. 

[AniNate]

Drops aren't normally very good the week before Thanksgiving. I think we'll see a major course correction over the holiday, especially with so many goods out

[baumer]

2.6 is the absolute max imo. 2.4 is more likely.

[Jake Gittes]

Trolls, Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge are the only holdovers that have managed to save face. And Loving in limited release I guess.

 

Nocturnal Animals is looking at a $14-15k PTA which is decent. Still I thought it would at least match Hell or High Water's $19k, and since it's supposed to be a pretty divisive movie I doubt it'll hold on too strongly. Might be lucky to end up in high teens.

[MinaTakla]

4 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

Arrival is doing fine. This weekend is generally brutal for all movies. It'll drop 50-52% and recover after that. Skyfall opened on an identical weekend, dropped 53% the next weekend, still legged it out to 3.45x in the end. And that's without any presence in the main Oscar categories. 

This. I digged deep into the numbers and drops to really assess if that hold should be worrisome or not. I also looked at 2011 which had the Veterans Day on a Fri.

The drops in general were as brutal as this week. 

I think ARRIVAL is doing fine esp that its PTA and Fri-to-Fri drop were fine. 

Hope everyting improves next week.

[James]

If it matters, internationally it seems to behave like a family blockbuster rather than a HP flick. I doubt it only gets a 2.4x multi.

[AHepBurn]

I really don't think FB is going to be front loaded. It's a HP spinoff but tangentally connected, contains none of the main characters and has no large connection to the main book series. It's simply not built as something HP fans will absolutely have to see first day/week but is set up as something that should pull in enough casual interest that should bode well for a solid run.

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What's everyone thinking for the Thanksgiving openers? Moana will obviously be massive but Allied is kind of a question mark and Bad Santa 2 and Rules Don't Apply look like blips.

Bad Santa wasn't that big of a hit still it's a seasonal adult comedy and there hasn't been a big one since Sausage Party. Joneses and Masterminds both flopped. Maybe it can get to 9m ow

Rules Don't Apply looks like a flop, little awards buzz and warren Beatty hasn't starred in a film in decades. Lily Collins/Alden Eirenrech aren't stars either. Probably 4m ow.

Allied looks like the most appealing title of the three but again it doesn't have huge awards buzz. Because of Brad Pitt I think it can open with at least 15m.

[Heretic]

FB is doing so well in the U.K, and it looks like it's having an absolutely massive Saturday, so I'm happy about that. Hopefully the US follows with a nice Saturday bump. 

[RyneOh1040]

20 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Fantastic Beasts did as well as it did thanks to Potter, and even then it still underperformed. Without the Potter connection it would have straight up bombed. A lot of the people who went because of Potter won't be back for the next installment. Without the Potter connection it might as well have been this: 

 

 

 

Lol, there is literally no proof of that being the case.  WOM seems to be great so far and those that have seen it seem to be on board for the franchise.

[La Binoche]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What's everyone thinking for the Thanksgiving openers? Moana will obviously be massive but Allied is kind of a question mark and Bad Santa 2 and Rules Don't Apply look like blips.

 

There is the curiosity factor of going to see the next movie from the world of Potter after a long absence. Many won't care enough to return, regardless of how they felt about it. 

[RyneOh1040]

5 minutes ago, Heretic said:

FB is doing so well in the U.K, and it looks like it's having an absolutely massive Saturday, so I'm happy about that. Hopefully the US follows with a nice Saturday bump. 

Hey Heretic what would be a good opening for this in the UK?

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Bad Santa wasn't that big of a hit still it's a seasonal adult comedy and there hasn't been a big one since Sausage Party. Joneses and Masterminds both flopped. Maybe it can get to 9m ow

Rules Don't Apply looks like a flop, little awards buzz and warren Beatty hasn't starred in a film in decades. Lily Collins/Alden Eirenrech aren't stars either. Probably 4m ow.

Allied looks like the most appealing title of the three but again it doesn't have huge awards buzz. Because of Brad Pitt I think it can open with at least 15m.

I think Allied will depend on reviews. Curious that it comes out in less than 5 days and there are still none.

[grim22]

I know last Friday was Veterans Day, but looking at holdovers it seems like a 150M behemoth opened. Actually, this is pretty much worst case for holdovers, 75M means it will command the big screens at multiplexes but won't drive traffic to other movies through spillover effect

 

Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	-	Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them	WB	$29,700,000	-	-	4,144	$7,167	$29,700,000	1
2	1	Doctor Strange	BV	$4,779,000	+129%	-68%	3,694	$1,294	$168,645,877	15
3	3	Trolls	Fox	$3,850,000	+295%	-68%	3,945	$976	$102,564,533	15
4	2	Arrival	Par.	$3,410,000	+131%	-64%	2,335	$1,460	$34,980,799	8
5	5	Almost Christmas	Uni.	$1,990,000	+216%	-66%	2,379	$836	$20,370,740	8
6	4	Hacksaw Ridge	LGF	$1,900,000	+131%	-50%	2,883	$659	$38,004,292	15
7	-	The Edge of Seventeen	STX	$1,700,000	-	-	1,945	$874	$1,700,000	1
8	-	Bleed for This	ORF	$895,366	-	-	1,549	$578	$895,366	1
9	6	The Accountant	WB	$605,000	+117%	-60%	1,423	$425	$79,742,018	36
10	9	Shut In	EC	$500,000	+214%	-65%	2,006	$249	$4,936,645	8
11	10	Moonlight (2016)	A24	$438,162	+308%	+4%	650	$674	$5,594,212	29
12	-	Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk	TriS	$350,000	+4,197%	+521%	1,176	$298	$506,611	8
-	11	Boo! A Madea Halloween	LGF	$313,000	+192%	-75%	1,171	$267	$71,305,821	29
-	7	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Par.	$276,000	+38%	-76%	1,110	$249	$55,945,185	29
-	-	Loving	Focus	$235,000	+503%	+40%	137	$1,715	$1,118,088	15
-	8	Inferno	Sony	$175,000	-8%	-84%	770	$227	$32,908,473	22
-	-	Nocturnal Animals	Focus	$163,000	-	-	37	$4,405	$163,000	1
-	12	The Girl on the Train (2016)	Uni.	$160,000	+68%	-72%	492	$325	$74,041,105	43
-	-	Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children	Fox	$100,000	+171%	-76%	464	$216	$85,487,641	50
-	-	Ouija: Origin of Evil	Uni.	$90,000	+77%	-86%	381	$236	$34,691,030	29
-	-	Keeping Up with the Joneses	Fox	$56,000	+93%	-73%	216	$259	$14,501,292	29
-	-	Deepwater Horizon	LG/S	$45,000	+94%	-68%	201	$224	$60,746,661	50
-	-	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$30,000	+199%	-56%	162	$185	$75,864,505	99
-	-	Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life	LGF	$28,000	+206%	-74%	207	$135	$19,636,173	43
-	-	Finding Dory	BV	$18,000	+122%	-65%	121	$149	$486,131,416	155
-	-	Ae Dil Hai Mushkil	FIP	$18,000

[La Binoche]

Miss Sloane is getting mediocre reviews outside of Chastain's performance. That won't go anywhere. 

[John Marston]

I got a free ticket to see Inferno but it looks like it is already out of theaters lol

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, La Binoche said:

Miss Sloane is getting mediocre reviews outside of Chastain's performance. That won't go anywhere. 

Did anyone ever expect a movie about politics to do well after enduring this election?

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, La Binoche said:

Miss Sloane is getting mediocre reviews outside of Chastain's performance. That won't go anywhere. 

 

Wrong time for a political thriller right now. People want to stay away from politics for the time being.

[boxofficeth]

TBH I expect BLLHW to do The Walk's number, but not to flop this hard.

 

Now my derby is completely destroyed.

[grim22]

Billy Lynn is no longer even playing in 120fps 3D at the Arclight. That screen is playing FB now. What a major disaster by Sony all around. They botched the rollout bigly.