Weekend numbers. Moana 28.3 | FB 18.5 | Arrival 7.3 | Allied 7 | DS 6.8 | Trolls 4.6 | Hacksaw 3.4

[druv10]

16 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

1). Moana  (DIS), 3,875 Theaters (0) / $6.5M Fri (-70%) / 3-day cume: $30.3M (-47%)/Total: $121.8M/Wk 2

 

 

Legs are kicking in. 300M is still in play.

[eXtacy]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

$17.2m only with a $5.3m Friday for FB?

 

Probably reaches closer to 18m

[La Binoche]

It's been a long time since there were movies worth tracking and rooting for at the box office. 

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Yes, that's what I looked up after I posed the question.  

 

I guess 125% jumps on Saturday are expected.

 

Yes, some caring parents actually take their children to the movies on Saturday

[Fancyarcher]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

The thing with superhero films is that the genre has such a well-defined archetype in Superman (both comics and cinema) and you cannot ask for a better kick-off/template for any genre than Donner's original.*

 

And the good thing is, there has always been a franchise or two that have picked up slack when one started to trickle out. Once Superman started going to shit, Burton's Batman came to the rescue. Once Schumacher ruined Batman, Singer and Raimi almost immediately introduced X-Men and Spider-Man. Once those franchises started to burn out, Nolan's TDK trilogy hit its prime and the MCU started to roll. 

 

There have been troughs but the peaks have always been there. And the starting point of the genre as we know it today is still so well-regarded and respected that the goodwill trickles down to the entire genre when it comes to critic circles, more knowledgeable moviephiles and people working in the industry.

 

What were the pioneer video game films? Mario Super Bros and Mortal Kombat? What are the pinnacles? Resident Evil and Tomb Raider? Already too much baggage. I agree that the genre, like any genre, needs interest from good filmmakers, but you can see why it is so hard to take it seriously as opposed to the CBM genre even if the latter has had its fair share of lows too.

 

And let's not forget that Superman was already an iconic and inspiring figure well before 1978. What is the "Superman" equivalent of video games? Donkey Kong/Mario is the only one I think comes closest. How do you give that the amount of gravitas that Donner gave Superman? Maaybe in animation? It's a challenge for sure.

 

*Yeah, I know the film had predecessors but those were so incredibly few and far in between that they are largely irrelevant to the way the genre is regarded. Or in the case of the 60's Batman movie, it's own little thing that perfectly fit the aesthetics of the very specific time that it was a product of.

 

Great post. I think the best looking video game movie is still SMB (poor adaptation or not, it's still got a strong production team behind it, although Street Fighter gives it a run for it's money). I think Hollywood just doesn't see video games as serious fare, a lot of times they're almost treated like B movies. The problem is, is that they often hand those VG adaptations off to filmmakers and studios who are clearly more interested in cashing a check then actually trying to adapt the source material well or not.

 

There are a lot VG I think could make for good movies, and a lot that I don't think would, but as is the case with anything, you need the right filmmaker for the job, someone who's actually interested in the property, and not merely just trying to make some decent bucks.

[Dementeleus]

Just now, Fancyarcher said:

 

Great post. I think the best looking video game movie is still SMB...

 

Hmmm, I'd have to say something like SILENT HILL.

[yjs]

4 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

I'm not surprised at the early expectation for Moana. Which families will more likely to the movies more going into the weekends, and not any real family competition until the Sing/Rogue One combo coming soon. 

 

its -47% drop is better than Frozen's -53%, Tangled's -56%, Toy Story 2's -52% and The Good Dinosaur's -61% with none of them having other family competition on the post-thanksgiving weekend. and that is why people are excited, cause it's performing better than the others did under the almost-the-same circumstances.

 

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Moana was always going to be much stronger on the weekends than FB.

But will it be enough to catch up to FB?

 

if FB had performed like a regular HP movie or a YA franchise like THG, then Moana could have outdone it easily with going in the Christmas holiday with more in tank opening a week later and being a family film, but FB seems to be showing a different kind of performance and developing some hot legs, so it'll be neck and neck. It depends on how they both survive the Christmas holiday. People keep saying Moana will be completely crushed by Sing and act it will just vanish during the season but even if Sing makes $12M~$15M per day Moana could still do $3.5M~4M-ish dailies (like how TPATF did $3.3M-ish against Alvin's $12.5M or Tangled did $3.5M-ish against Yogi/Narnia/Gulliver/etc.) and that ain't too bad. 

[dxmatrixdt]

the numbers are painful to look at.  My derby is screwed.  I gambled 3.7 for Incarnate..  AHHH!!!!!

[Fancyarcher]

7 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Hmmm, I'd have to say something like SILENT HILL.

 

That's a good one, I like some of the effects and the overall look of the movie, even if I'm not too big on some of the CGI (probably one of the reasons why I prefer SMB's look overall). It's certainly better looking than most VG movies, especially the Lara Craft films, or the Resident Evil movies, and even the first Mortal Kombat film, which suffers from some serious early "it looks like a video game" CGI, although it does have some decently designed sets.

Edited December 3, 2016 by Fancyarcher

[yjs]

23 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Legs are kicking in. 300M is still in play.

next Monday will be very interesting to see. That's when Frozen started acting differently. While all the others fell about 40% week-to-week that day, Frozen only fell 18%. I'll take anything in the 20% range as a huge triumph.

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, yjs said:

next Monday will be very interesting to see. That's when Frozen started acting differently. While all the others fell about 40% week-to-week that day, Frozen only fell 18%. I'll take anything in the 20% range as a huge triumph.

 

 

 

Frozen's big push actually came over the holidays. It went from 170M on Dec 18 to almost 300M on the first Monday in January. That was a ridiculous 18 day stretch for it. Moana reaches that stretch a week later (meaning smaller numbers to go through that stretch), and with R1 and Sing showing up at that time as well. Frozen was pretty much the only family movie game in town through that highly lucrative stretch and that was when it just went crazy. 

 

Thu	Dec. 19, 2013	3	$2,198,122	+22.8%	+28.1%	3,716	$592	$172,392,010	28
Fri	Dec. 20, 2013	4	$5,104,292	+132.2%	+0.1%	3,540	$1,442	$177,496,302	29
Sat	Dec. 21, 2013	3	$7,705,553	+51.0%	-24.0%	3,540	$2,177	$185,201,855	30
Sun	Dec. 22, 2013	3	$6,832,262	-11.3%	-6.7%	3,540	$1,930	$192,034,117	31
Mon	Dec. 23, 2013	2	$7,242,689	+6.0%	+353.0%	3,540	$2,046	$199,276,806	32
Tue	Dec. 24, 2013	2	$4,781,745	-34.0%	+135.3%	3,335	$1,434	$204,058,551	33
Wed	Dec. 25, 2013	7	$6,354,222	+32.9%	+254.9%	3,335	$1,905	$210,412,773	34
Thu	Dec. 26, 2013	2	$9,108,703	+43.3%	+314.4%	3,335	$2,731	$219,521,476	35
Fri	Dec. 27, 2013	1	$10,167,906	+11.6%	+99.2%	3,335	$3,049	$229,689,382	36
Sat	Dec. 28, 2013	2	$10,006,528	-1.6%	+29.9%	3,335	$3,000	$239,695,910	37
Sun	Dec. 29, 2013	2	$8,421,885	-15.8%	+23.3%	3,335	$2,525	$248,117,795	38
Mon	Dec. 30, 2013	1	$7,898,402	-6.2%	+9.1%	3,335	$2,368	$256,016,197	39
Tue	Dec. 31, 2013	1	$7,076,451	-10.4%	+48.0%	3,335	$2,122	$263,092,648	40
Wed	Jan. 1, 2014	1	$8,718,939	+23.2%	+37.2%	3,335	$2,614	$271,811,587	41
Thu	Jan. 2, 2014	1	$5,304,617	-39.2%	-41.8%	3,335	$1,591	$277,116,204	42
Fri	Jan. 3, 2014	2	$6,752,054	+27.3%	-33.6%	3,318	$2,035	$283,868,258	43
Sat	Jan. 4, 2014	1	$8,037,475	+19.0%	-19.7%	3,318	$2,422	$291,905,733	44
Sun	Jan. 5, 2014	1	$4,785,996	-40.5%	-43.2%	3,318	$1,442	$296,691,729	45
Mon	Jan. 6, 2014	1	$1,728,610	-63.9%	-78.1%	3,318	$521	$298,420,339	46

 

This ridiculous stretch of days will end up being the difference in the end. Its just crazy how strong Frozen was through the holidays. Moana has 2 disadvantages in hitting the holidays 5 days later into its run, and hitting competition in R1 and Sing. Looking at that stretch even now is just impressive. It actually increased from week to week during the holidays.

[grim22]

51 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

30.3m off a 6.5m Friday? Can someone show me how that's remotely feasible?

 

They are giving it Frozen's weekend multiplier. If you give it TS2's multiplier (which has 6.5M on the post-Thanksgiving Friday as well), it gets 27.5M. With Tangled's weekend multiplier it gets 26.5M. All depends on the Saturday bump.

[James]

51 minutes ago, Noctis said:

$17.2m only with a $5.3m Friday for FB?

With DH1 increases:

5.3

8.2

4.1

17.6m

 

With GoF increases:

5.3

8.9

5.6

19.8m

 

The increases a this point are perfectly following GoF. The Thu/Fri numbers (if Friday holds) are exactly the same as GoF got). I'm hoping for 20m. @Doctor Rth and his FBeasts come to the rescue.

Edited December 3, 2016 by James

[yjs]

47 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Frozen's big push actually came over the holidays. It went from 170M on Dec 18 to almost 300M on the first Monday in January. That was a ridiculous 18 day stretch for it. Moana reaches that stretch a week later (meaning smaller numbers to go through that stretch), and with R1 and Sing showing up at that time as well. Frozen was pretty much the only family movie game in town through that highly lucrative stretch and that was when it just went crazy. 

 

This ridiculous stretch of days will end up being the difference in the end. Its just crazy how strong Frozen was through the holidays. Moana has 2 disadvantages in hitting the holidays 5 days later into its run, and hitting competition in R1 and Sing.

I know, I WAS also there following its run with you guys.  this is getting exhausting, every time people bring Frozen as a barometer they immediately get corrected by others how it's inappropriate and Moana's never gonna be another Frozen: and for the millionth times, WE KNOW!!! WE ARE NOT SAYING THIS IS GONNA BE THE NEXT FROZEN! Frozen had all going for it and I think I've heard a million times already that R1 and Sing will totally gonna destroy Moana.   

 

I singled out that particular Monday because that's when Frozen first showed its unusual staying power, kinda like a glitch. While it still performed rather regularly further on till Thursday the 19th, it fluctuated on a higher scale because of that Monday and thanks to that it set a better foundation for the holiday push, otherwise it would have gotten $1.2M~$1.5M dailies before it entered the holiday frame and kicked the pre-Christmas weekend with about $3.9M Friday/$15M FSS instead of the $5.1M/$19.6M it got.

 

If Moana fell about the more typical 40~45% on that Monday it'll do pretty much like Tangled but if it falls about 2~30% then at least it could be an indicator that it could have more sustainability against its competitions and perform on a slightly higher scale than expected, maybe like $4~5M+ rather than $3M-ish. That's what I was suggesting. Wasn't even dreaming of anything extravagant like Frozen's $7M-$9M. Sing would probably do $12M-$15M and R1 maybe $15M-$18M but there'd still be a breathing room for $4M~$5M dailies. (I mean if TPATF after its $12M weekend did $3M-ish holiday dailies against Avatar, Sherlock and Alvin..)

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by yjs

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, James said:

With DH1 increases:

5.3

8.2

4.1

17.6m

 

With GoF increases:

5.3

8.9

5.6

19.8m

 

The increases a this point are perfectly following GoF. The Thu/Fri numbers (if Friday holds) are exactly the same as GoF got). I'm hoping for 20m. @Doctor Rth and his FBeasts come to the rescue.

 

 

It will come out of this weekend with a 182-184M gross and a weekend take very similar to MJ2 (within 5% either direction). MJ2, with TFA basically beating it down still made a further 54M from this point. Even if FB just manages that exact number it ends with around 235-240M.

[AniNate]

I'm usually the one telling people not to get overexcited, but there's a difference between saying something's a lock and saying something's a possibility (or "in play" as I worded it)

 

And that is indeed an excellent hold for Moana

Edited December 3, 2016 by tribefan695

[grey ghost]

13 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

I'm usually the one telling people not to get overexcited, but there's a difference between saying something's a lock and saying something's a possibility (or "in play" as I worded it)

 

And that is indeed an excellent hold for Moana

 

Fuck it!

 

300 m is a lock!!! 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AniNate]

If it keeps this pace up it might not need to match Frozen's holiday run to cross the 300 threshold

[Jake Gittes]

looks like a surprisingly non-brutal weekend. 

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Reserved seating is horrible.

It is the only kind I do, for me the not reserved seats idea is horrible. I do not drive 3hours (to it and back), seek either ages for a parking space or pay for it for a seat I wont enjoy watching the film in a cinema

 

Deadline Hollywood ‏@Deadline

Alice Drummond Dies; Veteran Character Actress Was 88 Link to Deadline

 

Dedline again:

Aquaman finally has a release date. The Warner Bros superhero pic starring Jason Momoa and directed by James Wan will hit theaters October 5, 2018 in both 3D and Imax.

Link to Deadline

 

Via ERC tweet:

Quote

WEEKEND ESTIMATES

1. Moana – $26M
2. Fantastic Beasts – $18M
3. Doctor Strange – $7.5M
4. Arrival – $7M
5. Allied – $6.5M

Link to Newswhilstle via ERC