RamblinRed Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So Disney is basically locked for $3B. Needs less than $40MM Fri and Sat. ($39.82MM). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PPZVGOS Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 25 minutes ago, POTUS said: Growth was up 4% in local currency, down 1.5% in dollars. they hit their saturation point. BO is limited by GDP as shown below. SK is on top as it has a much higher GDP/ppp than its GDP/nom and has a high urban population. The lower the urban rate the smaller the BO/GDP ratio. China is at the upper end of established markets with high urbanization. So its likely to drop as reflected in the March to date loss of 10% YoY now that the novelty is wearing off(moviegoing new to many people in the last 5 years, same happened in US after 1930s). Passing domestic will be no sooner than 2030 IMO. I made this call 18 months ago while the BO was up 50% YoY in June 2015 and everyone was saying it would pass domestic by 2017-18. 2017 will drop to 6.5b. Its acting very much like a stock market or real estate bubble. Same curve. GDP (000) GDP Growth BO (000) BO Growth BO/GDP Urban % South Korea 1,400,000 1,600 0.114% 82 Australia 1,450,000 1,000 0.069% 89 Mexico 1,280,000 870 0.068% 79 China 2016 10,700,000 +4.5% 6,700 -+1% 0.063% 57 France 2,850,000 1,800 0.063% 79 China 2015 10,800,000 +5.0% 6,800 +42% 0.063% 56 Russia 1,326,000 796 0.060% 74 UK 3,050,000 1,700 0.056% 82 Dom 2016 20,000,000 11,000 0.055% 81 Spain 1,400,000 700 0.050% 77 China 2014 10,400,000 +5.8% 4,800 +41% 0.046% 55 Japan 4,600,000 2,000 0.043% 92 Italy 2,150,000 800 0.037% 67 China 2013 9,500,000 +12.0% 3,400 +32% 0.036% 54 Brazil 2,350,000 800 0.034% 80 Germany 3,850,000 1,300 0.034% 69 China 2012 8,500,000 +12.0% 2,600 +34% 0.031% 53 China 2011 7,500,000 +15.0% 1,900 +33% 0.025% 52 Average 5,728,111 2,809 0.053% 71 Excellent work! Thank you for this Mr President! But I will disagree with your analysis! I think it's WRONG! If anything, China's economy continues to be the fastest growing in the world and there is much more room for further urbanization. Yes, the years of 40% growth are definitely over, but growth will definitely resume at some stage, somewhere around 2018/19 would be my guess. BTW, according to the IMF estimates for 2016, the Chinese economy is at $11.4B (nominal) and $21.3B (PPP) so China has a higher PPP-to-nominal ratio than South Korea ($1.9B to $1.4B) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Rogue one Diversity is how diverse characters should be cast in films. Not as a gimmick or 'hey looks its a Asian person'. Just a natural group of people working together or against for a reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 (edited) 6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: So Disney is basically locked for $3B. Needs less than $40MM Fri and Sat. ($39.82MM). it made ~ $21m on Thursday, but Saturday - if it is similar to here - they will start the last show early in the afternoon. Country side ~ 3 in the afternoon the last shows start, in the big city around 5 in the afternoon Edited December 30, 2016 by terrestrial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 30 minutes ago, That One Guy said: It'll please my dick too. I can please it too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 So after factoring in Thursday's gross, looks like Rogue One is going to come in just a hair under $376M domestic. It'll just miss hitting $400M on its 15th day (can't imagine it'll do $24M today) but will hit it on its 16th day. Either way, it will again bump out The Dark Knight for 4th fastest to $400M. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FilmBuff Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 38 minutes ago, That One Guy said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWXII Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, JB33 said: So after factoring in Thursday's gross, looks like Rogue One is going to come in just a hair under $376M domestic. It'll just miss hitting $400M on its 15th day (can't imagine it'll do $24M today) but will hit it on its 16th day. Either way, it will again bump out The Dark Knight for 4th fastest to $400M. It would have been quicker but for the vortex. Which now may be helping its legs ironically. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I’ll admit that I wasn’t in my best frame of mind last night. I was very tired and annoyed about being called into work. After getting some sleep, I can definitely say I’m a bit saner right now, and I want to apologize for my behavior last night. That said, I did come to a realization today. One that I must share. Cinema is dead. I know it might sound a bit theatrical, but it must be stated. No longer are films an artform; they have become solely a consumerist ideal, designed to make money while entertaining at the least values. That’s not to say there aren’t a few films here and there that slip through the crack striving to be art, but the issue is it’s a small crack they must slip through. This is due to the rise of platform releases. Take a look at these films. Hidden Figures. Jackie. La La Land. Silence. There is absolutely no reason these should be platform releases. The first is a star-studded retelling of a forgotten historical story. The second is Natalie Portman playing arguably the most famous first lady in our history. The third is a huge musical starring two of the biggest actors working. The final one is a Scorsese flick starring Spider-Man, Kylo Ren, and Liam Neeson. It is worth noting that the last two films are released by Lionsgate and Paramount, which makes their wide releases even more inexplicable. If Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival can get immediate wide releases, why do La La Land and Silence need to wait? Regardless, all four of these films would’ve gotten a wide release if they were released in the 90s or even the early 2000s. None of this blue-balling, “eh, maybe you’ll get it eventually, rural America” bullshit. The only things that get wide releases now are films with the “appearance” of quality. Look at what’s playing right now. Rogue One, big budget blockbuster. Sing, big CGI animation. Assassin’s Creed, big budget. Passengers, huge cast, huge visuals. All of these movies were greenlit with the intention of making 100M+ at the B.O. And that’s fine! Except that they’re taking screens from films that otherwise could catch on with the public. Yesterday I mentioned that I’m seeing Hamilton tomorrow. I am, and I’m looking forward to it. Unfortunately, film has started to take theatre’s worst aspects in mind. Limited availability leads to forced piracy. Plays and musicals have always been some of the most pirated works of art. There’s no coincidence that The Revenant, another film that inexplicably waited to have a wide release, is one of the most pirated films of the year. Same with American Sniper a couple years ago. There was NO reason these films had platform releases, and it’s bullshit. There’s a lot more I can get into about the evils of platform releases (I haven’t even touched the disturbing classist ideals they embody that subtly lead to the growing anti-intellectual movement in the U.S. which led to the election of a demagogue), but I think I can get into them later if you want. For now, all I got to say is cinema as an art form is dead, and if the Academy had any love for the art form, they should stop allowing platform releases to be eligible for the Academy Awards. I doubt that will ever happen and unfortunately that means one of the things I love and cherish most in this world, the finest art imaginable, will disappear in an horrible extinction. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashMaster659 Posted December 30, 2016 Author Share Posted December 30, 2016 3 minutes ago, SWXII said: It would have been quicker but for the vortex. Which now may be helping its legs ironically. What is the "vortex"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Blankments said: I’ll admit that I wasn’t in my best frame of mind last night. I was very tired and annoyed about being called into work. After getting some sleep, I can definitely say I’m a bit saner right now, and I want to apologize for my behavior last night. That said, I did come to a realization today. One that I must share. Cinema is dead. I know it might sound a bit theatrical, but it must be stated. No longer are films an artform; they have become solely a consumerist ideal, designed to make money while entertaining at the least values. That’s not to say there aren’t a few films here and there that slip through the crack striving to be art, but the issue is it’s a small crack they must slip through. This is due to the rise of platform releases. Take a look at these films. Hidden Figures. Jackie. La La Land. Silence. There is absolutely no reason these should be platform releases. The first is a star-studded retelling of a forgotten historical story. The second is Natalie Portman playing arguably the most famous first lady in our history. The third is a huge musical starring two of the biggest actors working. The final one is a Scorsese flick starring Spider-Man, Kylo Ren, and Liam Neeson. It is worth noting that the last two films are released by Lionsgate and Paramount, which makes their wide releases even more inexplicable. If Hacksaw Ridge or Arrival can get immediate wide releases, why do La La Land and Silence need to wait? Regardless, all four of these films would’ve gotten a wide release if they were released in the 90s or even the early 2000s. None of this blue-balling, “eh, maybe you’ll get it eventually, rural America” bullshit. The only things that get wide releases now are films with the “appearance” of quality. Look at what’s playing right now. Rogue One, big budget blockbuster. Sing, big CGI animation. Assassin’s Creed, big budget. Passengers, huge cast, huge visuals. All of these movies were greenlit with the intention of making 100M+ at the B.O. And that’s fine! Except that they’re taking screens from films that otherwise could catch on with the public. Yesterday I mentioned that I’m seeing Hamilton tomorrow. I am, and I’m looking forward to it. Unfortunately, film has started to take theatre’s worst aspects in mind. Limited availability leads to forced piracy. Plays and musicals have always been some of the most pirated works of art. There’s no coincidence that The Revenant, another film that inexplicably waited to have a wide release, is one of the most pirated films of the year. Same with American Sniper a couple years ago. There was NO reason these films had platform releases, and it’s bullshit. There’s a lot more I can get into about the evils of platform releases (I haven’t even touched the disturbing classist ideals they embody that subtly lead to the growing anti-intellectual movement in the U.S. which led to the election of a demagogue), but I think I can get into them later if you want. For now, all I got to say is cinema as an art form is dead, and if the Academy had any love for the art form, they should stop allowing platform releases to be eligible for the Academy Awards. I doubt that will ever happen and unfortunately that means one of the things I love and cherish most in this world, the finest art imaginable, will disappear in an horrible extinction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La Binoche Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, That One Guy said: Considering the movie got piss poor reviews and had shitty marketing, the fact that their movie sold solely on them might make 90M-120M (depending on legs) is fantastic. They've been marketing the shit out of this BIG BUDGET SCI-FI TENTPOLE for a year. It's a flop and bland & blander can't sell tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I've been hearing cinema is dead for as long as I can remember. I'm sure the same can be said our older members like Tele, Baumer, etc. And yet it's still kicking (though not without it's problems) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alli Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Passengers will possibly do 120M. Not bad. I compared it to Oblivion...another mediocre sci-fi romance and that one made 89M (of course it didn't have Christmas legs). All in all, not an embarrassment, but not a huge success either. It proves nothing about the draw of the stars. So onto the next movie.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB33 Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Cinema has become about the big franchises and film universes, while television has improved immensely in terms of your dramatic entertainment. The thing is, I can't say I mind. If I have money to see a movie and I have to pick between La La Land and Rogue One, well, I'm going to go with Rogue One. Believe me, I try to see as many movies in theatres as possible, and not all of them franchises or tentpoles. It's just that the smaller movies sometimes don't make the cut. This is actually where the discount theatre comes in real handy. I had one near me when I was living in Edmonton and that's usually where I'd catch all the smaller movies, Oscar bait movies etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Blankments said: - snip for ... - I think one of the reasons you didn't list is: the academy wanted to be earlier with their awards (more money / awareness... maybe?), and as such have to be earlier with their noms too,.... Christmas is a family cinema going thing, I belief there is place for additional indies,..., but only to a degree in the amount of those at that time. Also the academy seems to tend to forget earlier releases, if those didn't explode in the BO too, make a 'dent' in their brains/minds. I see the platform releases as a kind of previews for award reasons, and I think they are also releasing too many films nowadays per year, see this list at BOM http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?sort=newmovies&order=DESC&p=.htm and sorted as per year http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?sort=year&order=DESC&p=.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 I am quickly reaching the point where I'd take a smaller movie over the next big franchise movie. Last year, over half of my Top 10 was blockbusters. This year, I only have two in my Top 10, and that could change once I get around to some smaller films. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 BoxOffice @BoxOffice 3 minutes ago FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM earned an est. $1.31M Thursday, for an est. $220.02M total through six weeks. #FantasticBeasts BoxOffice @BoxOffice 2 minutes ago COLLATERAL BEAUTY earned an est. $1.31M Thursday, for an est. $21.64M total through two weeks. #CollateralBeauty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 Fantastic Beasts crossed 220m! Any chance for 240m? Am I being too greedy? 235m maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misafeco Posted December 30, 2016 Share Posted December 30, 2016 1 hour ago, La Binoche said: So Passengers will finish the holidays with around $60M and then earn another $30M or so to finish its domestic run short of $100M. Wrong. It will be near 70M after Jan 2. 100M is probably happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
