Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[ldb]

5 hours ago, NCsoft said:

 

Indeed, too much faith in SW can sometimes help distort the reality...

 

lulz. More haters lining up for Rogue One to bytchslap them.  

 

545 domestic, 545 offshore.    6th greatest box office smash hit of all time.  

 

 

 

[JB33]

16 minutes ago, Lumos said:

The box office climate has changed so much since the early 2000's. Adjusted for inflation & 3D and taking into account that many overseas markets are much bigger than they use to be, the first HP film would have likely came close to 2 billion in today's bo climate. And HP 2, 4 & 8 over 1.5 billion. They were huge hits. SS and DH2 were the biggest non-James Cameron films of all time worldwide when they were released. Is Star Wars a bigger film series than Potter? Probably yes. Star Wars is a beast there's no denying that. But Potter is a close second. Also, Potter was always more of a literary phenomenon than a film phenomenon. Even if the films were box office duds the series would go down in history forever. Nearly 500 million copies sold worldwide. So if we're comparing box office I would give the edge to SW. If we're comparing actual popularity of the franchises ....I'd say they are pretty much tied worldwide...probably give Potter the slight edge.

 

If you're going to go into different mediums and products than you might as well take into consideration how Star Wars has dominated the toy market for a LONG time. Not trying to diminish what you're trying to say, just pointing out that Star Wars goes well beyond the films and as a franchise and total package is probably still more popular.

[JonathanLB]

42 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Alright, a few messages I've seen on reddit prompted me to try this, so I crunched some numbers and here is what I came up with concerning Rogue One's late legs, projected final gross and so on.

 

First of all, I needed weekly drops so I projected Rogue One's daily numbers for this week. I simply considered that Rogue One would drop 73% compared to last week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It's a very reasonable week-to-week drop as good comps Sherlock Holmes' AND Mission Impossible's drops in 2011 (top 2 at the time) were both -65%, -70%, and -70% ---- worth noting that Girl With the Dragon Tattoo's drops were -55%, -55%, and -60%, however Alvin's were -70%, -80%, -80% and Tintin -63%, -72%, -75% ---- so all in all, I think -73% all week is a pretty good middle ground and a good start for a projection.

 

Anyway --

 

Tuesday --> 22.5 * 0.27 = 6.1M

Wednesday --> 18 * 0.27 = 4.9M

Thursday --> 16.7 * 0.27 = 4.5M

total = 15.5M

 

Add that to this 4-day week-end (64.35M) and weekly total is 79.9M

Current Dom total with projection, on Jan 5 = 455.3M

 

Now, I simply apply a 50% weekly drop every single week to Rogue One for 8 weeks

 

39.9
20
10
5
2.5
1.25
0.625
0.31

= 79.5M

 

Add that to current Dom total and you end up with 535M

 

Now here is why I think this is the floor for Rogue One...

 

First of all, 50% weekly drops won't happen because of weeks like MLK with epic holds.

 

Second, I ran the same test with TFA, Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and Alvin and the Chipmunks (2011) just to see what happens if you apply a 50% week-to-week drop for the remainder of their runs at the same point in time as Rogue One is right now, since they are good comps (TFA is more for fun because Star Wars )

 

Here is what happened:

 

The Force Awakens - 770.38M Dom total (lol) on Jan 7 (118.4M weekly gross at ~same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
59.2
29.6
14.8
7.4
3.7
1.85
1

0.5
= 888.5M projected total (vs 936.6M actual final total, which is 5% higher than projected)
 

Sherlock Holmes 2 - 143.36M Dom total on Jan 5 (33.34M weekly gross at same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
16.7
8.3
4.2
2.1
1
0.5

0.25

0.1
= 176.5M projected total (vs 186.85M actual final total, which is 6% higher than projected)
 

Same maths with MI:Ghost Protocol gives a projected total of 196.35M (vs 209M actual final total, which is 6.4% higher than projected)

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked gives a projected total of 127.5M (vs 133M actual final total, which is 4% higher than projected)

 

Pretty much what that means is that, Final gross of all these movies is 4-6% higher than applying a very simple 50% drops to their weekly gross coming out of the holidays.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

SO!

 

...the lesson here is that Rogue One's final domestic take has a floor of 535M Domestic, with potential to reach in the ballpark of $570M, which is about 6% higher than 535M

 

I don't see it going much higher than that. That would mean it has better late legs than TFA, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible:GP, and Alvin and the Chipmunks. Alvin, not so hard to believe, the others, not so much...

 

 

That's it.

 

For those if you who already knew this, well, this post wasn't aimed at you 

It's aimed at those other folks out there who genuinely have no idea what range late legs can give a movie.

 

Thanks for watch, hope you liked kino, pls recommend  

 

 

 

 

This was a fantastic post can I like it a few more times? Haha. I agree for sure, that's why I have Rogue One right around $570M. I definitely see how it could be more like $555M but I don't think it's going under $550M.

[Wrath]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

If you're going to go into different mediums and products than you might as well take into consideration how Star Wars has dominated the toy market for a LONG time. Not trying to diminish what you're trying to say, just pointing out that Star Wars goes well beyond the films and as a franchise and total package is probably still more popular.

While I don't disagree with the extent to which SW is a merchandising juggernaut, its worth remembering the sheer extent of the HP books' success.

 

I mean, everyone would assume the HP books sold a ton of copies, right? I mean, they must have or the movies wouldn't have done well. But what people often don't realize is that the HP books. Really didn't sell a truckload of books.

 

They solid a metric-frigging f**k-ton of books.

 

The 3 bests selling books of all time, worldwide, are the Bible (combining all versions), Chairman Mao's Little Red Book, and the Qur'an with total copies sold of 5+ billion each. They don't really count.

 

After that, comes:

 

1. Don Quixote - Cervantes (its been in print for 504 which is kind of cheating, but even so)

2. Tale of Two Cities - Dickens (157 year in print hardly seems worth quibbling over after Quixote)

3. The Alchemist - Coelho (I have no idea, but it sold 150 million copies so it must have been good)

4. The Little Prince - Saint-Exupery (yes, that French kids' book about the kid on the tiny asteroid has indeed that popular)

 

and

 

5. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - Rowling (that's pretty good, especially considering The Alchemist is the only book above it on the list that came out after WWII)

 

The *worst* selling book is, surprisingly to me, Deathly Hallows, which ranks a paltry 22nd on the list (though they're mostly pretty close together. So, almost 1/3 of the best 22 selling books of all time are the original 7 HP books). Half-Blood Price was the second best seller after SS.

 

Added together, the books have sold roughly 500M copies. That's a lot of money and cultural impact.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Wrath said:

While I don't disagree with the extent to which SW is a merchandising juggernaut, its worth remembering the sheer extent of the HP books' success.

 

I mean, everyone would assume the HP books sold a ton of copies, right? I mean, they must have or the movies wouldn't have done well. But what people often don't realize is that the HP books. Really didn't sell a truckload of books.

 

They solid a metric-frigging f**k-ton of books.

 

The 3 bests selling books of all time, worldwide, are the Bible (combining all versions), Chairman Mao's Little Red Book, and the Qur'an with total copies sold of 5+ billion each. They don't really count.

 

After that, comes:

 

1. Don Quixote - Cervantes (its been in print for 504 which is kind of cheating, but even so)

2. Tale of Two Cities - Dickens (157 year in print hardly seems worth quibbling over after Quixote)

3. The Alchemist - Coelho (I have no idea, but it sold 150 million copies so it must have been good)

4. The Little Prince - Saint-Exupery (yes, that French kids' book about the kid on the tiny asteroid has indeed that popular)

 

and

 

5. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone - Rowling (that's pretty good, especially considering The Alchemist is the only book above it on the list that came out after WWII)

 

The *worst* selling book is, surprisingly to me, Deathly Hallows, which ranks a paltry 22nd on the list (though they're mostly pretty close together. So, almost 1/3 of the best 22 selling books of all time are the original 7 HP books). Half-Blood Price was the second best seller after SS.

 

Added together, the books have sold roughly 500M copies. That's a lot of money and cultural impact.

 

Absolutely. Can't argue with that one bit. Maybe you put it best when you said Star Wars (outside of the films) is more of a merchandising juggernaut.

[Wrath]

11 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

Absolutely. Can't argue with that one bit. Maybe you put it best when you said Star Wars (outside of the films) is more of a merchandising juggernaut.

Yeah, works for me.

 

Wow, my post was one of the most typo-ridden things I've ever written. I think the universe is telling me to go to bed.

[EmpireCity]

I would be absolutely shocked if Avatar 2 makes a release date less than 2 years away.  No way is Disney going to release Han Solo only 3 weeks after Avengers and 5 months after Episode 8.   

 

You can bet your ass that Han Solo will move to Dec. 13th, 2018 and Avatar is magically delayed until Dec. 18th, 2020.  

 

Star Wars will likely take a year off and you will get the Obi-Wan spin off in 2021

[Xavier]

4 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

The Force Awakens made over 123M pounds in the UK. The most successful HP movie over here in un-adjusted terms was DHP2. That made 73.1M pounds which in 2015 currency equals 80.36M

 

The most successful Potter movie when inflation is taken into account, is still the very first one, which made 66.1M back in 2001. That equals 98.6M in today's money, still well below The Force Awakens. And this year, a spin-off/prequel went against a spin-off/prequel, and again Star Wars won the day easily. I am not even sure what you are trying to say or prove here. 

 

Facts.

 

I love the fact that you completely disregarded my bigger post where I made clear that I respect every self-conscious fanboy, and you chose to comment on one that merely said that Fantastic Beasts is the least Harry Potter movie that it could be. Meaning that there were close to none connections with the Harry Potter story and no real fan service. By the way, that was a much braver decision than whoever decided the Darth Vader and Leia scenes on R1. And you are talking to a sucker who saw R1 a second time just for the Darth Vader carnage scene, even if I AGAIN slept for a good part of the first hour..

 

My post had nothing to do with the boxoffice grosses of the two franchises in the UK. If I commented on such a thing, I would comment on WW grosses of various installments of the two franchises, which I DON'T :-)

Edited January 3, 2017 by Xavier

[elcaballero]

19 minutes ago, Wrath said:

3. The Alchemist - Coelho (I have no idea, but it sold 150 million copies so it must have been good)

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I would be absolutely shocked if Avatar 2 makes a release date less than 2 years away.  No way is Disney going to release Han Solo only 3 weeks after Avengers and 5 months after Episode 8.   

 

You can bet your ass that Han Solo will move to Dec. 13th, 2018 and Avatar is magically delayed until Dec. 18th, 2020.  

 

Star Wars will likely take a year off and you will get the Obi-Wan spin off in 2021

 

Don't tease me! That would be awesome! 

 

I think after the 3rd spin-off movie they'll take the saga films to the "Old Republic", so to speak, about 1000 years before The Phantom Menace. I'd love a saga based around the Jedi's victory over the Sith, Darth Bane and his rule of 2. It's the last significant time in Star Wars history before the story of the Skywalkers and the return of the Sith.

[Daxtreme]

If Disney ever announce movies based on The Old Republic era....

 

...

 

[The Panda]

A Darth Bane trilogy 

[Noctis]

So...Potter and Star Wars are probably the two most popular series of all time. Let's move on?

[DeeCee]

7 minutes ago, Noctis said:

So...Potter and Star Wars are probably the two most popular series of all time. Let's move on?

There is another. 

 

Spoiler

The epic Avatar Cinematic Universe 

 

[Porthos]

IMO, if James Cameron really does want to release one Avatar a year once he's ready, the perfect solution is for Avatar to be released the week before Thanksgiving.  That's been proven to be nearly as great as Xmas, and Avatar is supposed to be leggy anyway.

 

OR release it in the first/second week of December, if SW is 'claiming' a later spot in the month.  There is literally zero reason to be scared of that slot (For example, The Last Samurai), and the film will still be fresh enough to get those sweet sweet late December legs.

 

IMO, there is more than enough room in Nov and Dec for SW and Avatar to co-exist.  Maybe both can't get the exact same weekend to debut.  So what.  Plenty of space in the two months AND there should be plenty of PLF screeens by the time 2018 rolls around.   

 

The only thing that might be an issue is the absolute premium of premuim screens.  To which I say:  Meh.  Work it out, folks.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Porthos

[Mojoguy]

Avatar 2 isn't coming out until 2020 at the earliest. There will be ZERO conflict.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Mojoguy

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Avatar 2 isn't coming out until 2020 at the earliest. There will ZERO conflict.

 

There will be for whatever SW film is out that year. 

 

(SW Standalone 3 [the Josh Trank film that blew up] is PROBABLY still penciled in for 2020 right now)

Edited January 3, 2017 by Porthos

[misafeco]

This was entertaining. 

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(SW Standalone 3 [the Josh Trank film that blew up] is PROBABLY still penciled in for 2020 right now)

 

One reason I say 'probably' is because the unofficial word is that there were three 'standalones' being worked on and the Han Solo film was brought up in the production cycle when Disney/LFL unceremoniously fired Trank.  The other reason I say 'probably', is that there has been a near complete Radio Silence about the film Josh Trank was going to helm ever since Trank was fired.  The most I've heard is stray comments here and there from Pablo Hidalgo about (paraphrasing) the 'two standalone projects that originated from ideas from George Lucas' (R1 NOT being one of them) and the rumor that came down the pike a month ago or so that LFL had a presentation for Trank's film all ready to go at SW Celebration in 2015 before it all exploded.

 

Now projects have collapsed before when directors get canned (it's called Development Hell for a reason), and the lack of rumors about what was Standalone #2 and is now Standalone #3 IS a little interesting.  But I still tend to think a SW film is going to be released sometime in 2020, even if we haven't heard much about it lately.  2020 being quite a ways away, after all.

 

And even if there isn't a SW film in 2020, there will almost certainly be one in 2021 or 2022, and by then the yearly Avatars WILL be rolling out.  So, yes, eventually there will be conflict.  I'm just saying that both properties can easily co-exist in the Nov/Dec timeframe if they choose to.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Porthos

[BadAtGender]

Someone was criticizing Robocop earlier today and I was going to write up something in defense of it, but I forgot which thread it was in.