Best Picture predictions-2017!

[filmlover]

FWIW my current Best Picture predictions are:

 

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

And yet, none of these stand out to me as obvious winners. Definitely the most interesting Oscar race IMO in at least a decade.

[That One Girl]

 

1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Post
4. Get Out
5. Call Me by Your Name
6. Dunkirk
7. Lady Bird
8. Darkest Hour
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. I, Tonya

Edited November 16, 2017 by That One Guy

[WrathOfHan]

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Dunkirk

5. Call Me by Your Name

6. Lady Bird

7. Darkest Hour

8. Get Out

 

I'm not too confident in a 9th nominee right now. Something needs to pick up substantial buzz IMO

[WrathOfHan]

btw CMBYN is the first major contender to send out SAG screeners http://www.sagawards.org/MPNC2017/dvds

 

It's interesting that Universal has sent out screeners for Split and American Made but not Get Out (note: AMPAS, DGA, and PGA have GO screeners). I'm still not convinced Kaluuya is going anywhere.

Edited November 16, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

btw CMBYN is the first major contender to send out SAG screeners http://www.sagawards.org/MPNC2017/dvds

 

It's interesting that Universal has sent out screeners for Split and American Made but not Get Out (note: AMPAS, DGA, and PGA have GO screeners). I'm still not convinced Kaluuya is going anywhere.

I could definitely see CMBYN get a SAG Ensemble nom despite having only three actual performances in the film. After all, if The Theory of Everything happened...

[stripe]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

FWIW my current Best Picture predictions are:

 

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Florida Project

Get Out

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

 

And yet, none of these stand out to me as obvious winners. Definitely the most interesting Oscar race IMO in at least a decade.

 

Agree. I would say that the Three billboards has the best chances. Then, Get Out > Shape of Water > Dunkirk > Call Me by Your Name > Lady Bird > The Post >Florida Project > Darkest Hour

[BirdMan]

Any early word about The Post ? any one knows anything ??

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, BirdMan said:

Any early word about The Post ? any one knows anything ??

Probably won't get any early world about until December.

[Safeno Rdz]

1. Three Billboards (most likely winner)

2. The Post

3. Dunkirk

4. Call me by your name

5. The shape of water

6. Darkest hour

7. Lady Bird

8. Get out

9. The Florida Project

[WrathOfHan]

It would be amazing if Lionsgate could get Wonder into the race. I'm starting to think it'll pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It would be amazing if Lionsgate could get Wonder into the race. I'm starting to think it'll pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

That'll only happen if it becomes a mini-Blind Side sensation. The last Supporting Actress slot is up for grabs so maybe they can make Julia Roberts happen there.

[SLAM!]

35 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It would be amazing if Lionsgate could get Wonder into the race. I'm starting to think it'll pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination.

 

If Amazon handles the campaigns for The Big Sick and Last Flag Flying, then Wonder is Lionsgate's only viable film. So if a studio chooses to campaign its only film with love and care, who knows how far it could go. This isn't a Paramount situation, when last year they had four films to campaign and a few films like Silence fell by the wayside. Lionsgate can put its full focus on Wonder if it chooses to. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to sneak it in.

Edited November 16, 2017 by slambros

[PenguinHyphy]

On 10/23/2017 at 11:36 PM, filmlover said:

Who else has a shot? Roman J. Israel is likely gonna be Denzel's Concussion. And then there is Mary J. Blige and Jason Mitchell, who face an uphill battle with their film being from Netflix.

 

Netflix is a matter of when, not a matter of if. Netflix brought in Cynthia Swartz and Lisa Taback, two top Oscar strategists, to work the campaign. That is why you have seen Mary J. Blige every where and the movie winning at a festival or two. Get Out is strong as I posted all the way in March and Daniel Kaluuya has been campaigning, so he is one people need to watch. Nevertheless, I have finally seen Molly's Game, and am pretty sure that Idris Elba and Jessica Chastain will both receive nominations similar to Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet and Jonah Hill and Brad Pitt. They have the great monologues and everything else that actors love about performances that use Sorkin scripts. 

[WrathOfHan]

New predictions:

Spoiler

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Dunkirk

5. Lady Bird

6. Call Me by Your Name

7. Get Out

8. Wonder

9. Phantom Thread

----------------------

10. Darkest Hour

Alt: The Disaster Artist

 

Director:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post

Alt: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

5. Jacob Tremblay, Wonder

Alt: Tom Hanks, The Post

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

Alt: Owen Wilson, Wonder

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Julia Roberts, Wonder

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Alt: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. Lady Bird

3. Get Out

4. The Post

5. The Shape of Water

Alt: Phantom Thread

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. Wonder

3. The Disaster Artist

4. Molly's Game

5. Blade Runner 2049

Alt: Mudbound

 

Animated:

 

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Captain Underpants

5. Mary and the Witch's Flower

Alt: The Boss Baby

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Shape of Water

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. mother!

Alt: Phantom Thread

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Three Billboards

5. The Post

Alt: Get Out

 

Score:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Three Billboards

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Post

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. Beauty and the Beast

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Murder on the Orient Express

Alt: Victoria and Abdul

 

Makeup:

 

1. Darkest Hour

2. Wonder

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

Alt: It

 

Song:

 

1. Remember Me, Coco

2. The Mystery of Love, Call Me by Your Name

3. The Greatest Show, The Greatest Showman

4. I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Fifty Shades Darker

5. Evermore, Beauty and the Beast

Alt: Un Poco Loco, Coco

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

Alt: Dunkirk

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. mother!

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Only the Brave

Alt: Baby Driver

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Baby Driver

4. The Greatest Showman

5. mother!

Alt: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

 

Nomination counts:

Spoiler

12:

The Shape of Water (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects)

 

8:

Dunkirk (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

7:

Blade Runner 2049 (Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Call Me by Your Name (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Song)

Three Billboards (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

6:

The Post (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

5:

Lady Bird (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay)

Wonder (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup)

 

4:

mother! (Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Phantom Thread (Picture, Actor, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

3:

Darkest Hour (Actor, Score, Makeup)

The Greatest Showman (Costume Design, Song, Sound Mixing)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

 

2: 

Beauty and the Beast (Costume Design, Song)

Coco (Animated, Song)

The Disaster Artist (Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

Get Out (Picture, Original Screenplay)

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 (Makeup, Visual Effects)

I, Tonya (Actress, Supporting Actress)

 

 

I'm going all in on Wonder. Obviously an Adapted Screenplay nomination is happening, and Makeup is pretty likely too. Tremblay should easily score another nomination at SAG with Hanks and DDL screening late, which could lead to an Oscar nomination. Julia Roberts can easily make it into Supporting Actress given the weak competition, and hell, Owen Wilson could get in if the film really gains a lot of buzz.

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think Darkest Hour is dying. It's the worst-received contender by a decent margin (obviously minus The Post and Phantom Thread), and I have no clue what the hell Focus is doing with its release strategy. It's going to get overshadowed going wide on Christmas IMO. Idk. We'll see, but I'm starting to think Phantom Thread will be their main push.

I'm veeeeeeeeeeery close to putting JLaw back in my Actress predictions. Paramount is campaigning this movie like CRAZY. I don't know who to take out though; Hawkins is probably the most vulnerable to JLaw/Chastain/Dench right now, yet I can still see her winning with how big of a contender SOW is. 

The Big Sick is probably done. Julia Roberts surging isn't good for Hunter, and there's fringe contenders like Blige and Pfeiffer who are gaining traction. Original Screenplay is too crowded for it to get in, and I highly doubt it could get into Picture on just a Supporting Actress nomination.

[KeepItU25071906]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predictions:

Wonder?! No chance.

[CoolioD1]

han's any good news for any movie = "guys guess what's getting nine oscar nominations" strategy is gonna pay off eventually maybe.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

han's any good news for any movie = "guys guess what's getting nine oscar nominations" strategy is gonna pay off eventually maybe.

You mock me now, but it WILL HAPPEN.

 

[Webslinger]

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Wonder making it. I know it's getting comparisons to The Blind Side in terms of its impact with audiences, but as far as Oscars go, it's worth remembering that The Blind Side had the Best Actress winner and was an inspirational sports movie - a subgenre that occasionally breaks through in a big way with voters. Wonder seems like a bigger longshot than Blind Side ever did.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I dunno, I have a hard time seeing Wonder making it. I know it's getting comparisons to The Blind Side in terms of its impact with audiences, but as far as Oscars go, it's worth remembering that The Blind Side had the Best Actress winner and was an inspirational sports movie - a subgenre that occasionally breaks through in a big way with voters. Wonder seems like a bigger longshot than Blind Side ever did.

This. I do think that the dire state of the Adapted Screenplay category will be enough to allow a critically-acclaimed crowd-pleasing surprise box office smash like this to enter the field, though, and that'll be the extent of Wonder's awards run.

[NCsoft]

7 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predictions:

  Hide contents

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Dunkirk

5. Lady Bird

6. Call Me by Your Name

7. Get Out

8. Wonder

9. Phantom Thread

----------------------

10. Darkest Hour

Alt: The Disaster Artist

 

Director:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

5. Steven Spielberg, The Post

Alt: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

5. Jacob Tremblay, Wonder

Alt: Tom Hanks, The Post

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2. Meryl Streep, The Post

3. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

5. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

Alt: Owen Wilson, Wonder

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Julia Roberts, Wonder

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

Alt: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. Lady Bird

3. Get Out

4. The Post

5. The Shape of Water

Alt: Phantom Thread

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. Wonder

3. The Disaster Artist

4. Molly's Game

5. Blade Runner 2049

Alt: Mudbound

 

Animated:

 

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Captain Underpants

5. Mary and the Witch's Flower

Alt: The Boss Baby

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Shape of Water

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. mother!

Alt: Phantom Thread

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Blade Runner 2049

4. Three Billboards

5. The Post

Alt: Get Out

 

Score:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Three Billboards

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Post

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. Beauty and the Beast

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Murder on the Orient Express

Alt: Victoria and Abdul

 

Makeup:

 

1. Darkest Hour

2. Wonder

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

Alt: It

 

Song:

 

1. Remember Me, Coco

2. The Mystery of Love, Call Me by Your Name

3. The Greatest Show, The Greatest Showman

4. I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Fifty Shades Darker

5. Evermore, Beauty and the Beast

Alt: Un Poco Loco, Coco

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

Alt: Dunkirk

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. mother!

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Only the Brave

Alt: Baby Driver

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Baby Driver

4. The Greatest Showman

5. mother!

Alt: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think Darkest Hour is dying. It's the worst-received contender by a decent margin (obviously minus The Post and Phantom Thread), and I have no clue what the hell Focus is doing with its release strategy. It's going to get overshadowed going wide on Christmas IMO. Idk. We'll see, but I'm starting to think Phantom Thread will be their main push.

 

It might or might not be dying, I'd be for it not getting nominated for BP leaving room for something refreshing. But you're adding Wonder in which has a significantly lower MTC score than even Darkest Hour, its kind of odd then to mention that Darkest hour is the worst-received contender. Plus, Darkest hour actually has the advantage of a likely best actor win and Wonder has nothing like that.