SLAM! Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Well, here goes nothing. Best Picture Predictions (in no particular order): - Dunkirk - The Shape of Water - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Get Out - Phantom Thread - The Post - I, Tonya - The Disaster Artist - [blockbuster slot] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Dunkirk fills this year's blockbuster slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Three Billboards is starting to become the real frontrunner but now I'm suddenly slightly less convinced. Huh. I think Three Billboards is still the favorite, I think Dunkirk is where it's always been, Shape of Water stock is dropping, Call Me By Your Name is still legit if it gets enough first place votes....but maybe Get Out wins the whole fucking thing? I don't know, man. I'm not ruling that out. It has the reviews, the money, the zeitgeist, the buzz, the lasting popularity, it's certainly probably going to end up as iconic as any movie from this year. It feels possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Having seen it I honestly don't expect any of the other major contenders to be as good as CMBYN. Which means it won't win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 Kinda been thinking Get Out stands a real chance honestly 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted November 1, 2017 Share Posted November 1, 2017 I'm going to keep Get Out as my predicted Winner. Cultural issues, blockbuster hit when the academy's trying to stay relevant, excellent reviews, and a wide appeal (to win BP, people putting the movie as their #2 or 3 is just as important as a lot of #1s. Look at La La Land, probably had more #1 votes than Moonlight but it had a large traction of voters who didn't like it and ranked it low. Most voters probably ranked Moonlight high.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 The potential of Get Out being nominated is exciting enough but actually winning?!?!?! Now that would be icing on the cake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I’m honestly on the Get Out will win train at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 I dunno I'd expect Three Billboards to have the edge because it also has that combination of fun and relevant/outraged but it stars all white people who give showier performances. Get Out strikes me as filling that "too cool to win" slot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 There's no chance for a Get Out win. As zeitgeisty as it may be, it's still a low-budget horror film. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukaio101 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 6 hours ago, Webslinger said: There's no chance for a Get Out win. As zeitgeisty as it may be, it's still a low-budget horror film. Yes, because as we all know, no low budget horror movie released in February has ever done at all well in the Oscars. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 On 1/11/2017 at 4:59 AM, filmlover said: Dunkirk fills this year's blockbuster slot. And Get Out. I would love to see another zeitgeist film nommed (Wonder Woman? Coco?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 What to expect BO wise from the potential nominees that still have to open? My predicted nominees Dunkirk - 188M Get Out - 175M Shape of Water - 90M The post - 80M I Tonya - 60M 3 billboards - 50M Darkest Hour - 50M Call me by your name - 30M Other contenders Ladybird - 25M Florida Project - 10M Mudbound - 20M Wonder Woman - 412M The Big Sick - 43M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 3 hours ago, rukaio101 said: Yes, because as we all know, no low budget horror movie released in February has ever done at all well in the Oscars. That won 2 acting Oscars (lead ones, no less), though, while Get Out's chances at acting noms are virtually none. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 (edited) Also Silence of the Lambs had a bit more of prestige bonafides behind it. And calling it a horror movie is wrong imo, it's a crime movie, more of a thriller/drama. Edited November 3, 2017 by 4815162342 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Meanwhile, Lady Bird is still sitting at 100% on RT and a whooping 94 on MC. I'm starting to think it's gonna end up in the Best Picture line-up, as well as another nomination for Ronan. Excited to see how it does in specialty release this weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Yeah, Silence of the Lambs isn't the best comparison for Get Out. I enjoyed Get Out thoroughly and would love to see it up for multiple awards, but it's not highbrow enough for enough voters to get onboard for the biggest win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 (edited) 6 hours ago, filmlover said: Meanwhile, Lady Bird is still sitting at 100% on RT and a whooping 94 on MC. I'm starting to think it's gonna end up in the Best Picture line-up Currently in the top 7 favorite for BP right now, imo http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/best-picture-oscars All the money of the world I imagine can be removed now and the only movie below Lady Bird that could move up realistically are Phantom thread, Mudbound (if it get out of the Netflix movie slump in some way) and I Tonya. 19 minutes ago, Webslinger said: Yeah, Silence of the Lambs isn't the best comparison for Get Out. Not sure a movie like Silence of the Lambs production/star powers today would be called small budget, (look like something that would cost 40-50m to do now, was around 35m adjusted), specially not in best picture context talk, would be easily in mid-budget type now, La la land style with a long list of candidate quite smaller. Lambs was if we rank is genre by importance probably: Crime, Drama, Thriller than horror Get out: Horror, Mystery, Thriller with comedy somewhere between 1 to 4. In a fuzzy way, making it more close to the usual winner's. Edited November 3, 2017 by Barnack 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Silence of the Lambs is probably the worst comparison for any BP contender genre or not because it was a lightning in a bottle situation. It wasn't just the February release and the horror thriller genre against it. Orion Pictures declared bankruptsy around the time the film was released and was already the butt of industry jokes when Silence won a year later. Also it had a lot of controversy and not the "angry tweets and thinkpieces" kind. On the day of the telecast, several protesters carried various signs that contained statements such as "Stop Hollywood's Homophobia" and "Hollywood Stop Censoring Our True Queer Lives."[35] One man who had purchased tickets to the ceremony yelled statistics regarding AIDS in protest as John Candy was introducing a Best Song performance.[36] The protester was immediately escorted out by security without any arrests, nor were his remarks heard during the broadcast.[35] And it still went 5/5 in major categories. Even if Get Out ends up a BP winner/contender, it won't be as mind-boggling as the Silence of the Lambs win was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 (edited) On 11/2/2017 at 9:44 PM, Webslinger said: There's no chance for a Get Out win. As zeitgeisty as it may be, it's still a low-budget horror film. Well, it sucks that a low budget horror film cannot win cause it's a low budget horror film. AMPAS should work on changing their attitude towards genre movies cause diversity of genres is diversity too. Since they are so big on that lately. Get Out is a shoo-in nominee for BP and Original Script. Peele has a very good shot at BD too but the other 2 categories are locked. If he makes it as a nominee, than Get Out's chances to pull a stunning win rise. Recent wins absolutely favor Script. That nom is a must and Get Out is going to have it. I'm not getting my hopes high that it will win but Script puts it in advantage over The Shape of Water which is getting praise for everything except Script (may miss out). But that one is a genre movie too so whichever wins, I'll be happy. Edited November 4, 2017 by Valonqar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
