That One Girl Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Star Wars has about a 0.0001% chance of being nominated. mother! might honestly have a better chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Star Wars has about a 0.0001% chance of being nominated. mother! might honestly have a better chance. spoiler mother! does Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I'm starting to think Judi Dench is in the tier with Chastain/Robbie/Ronan because of how well her movie is doing at the box office. She's definitely ahead of Stone at this point. Having seen BOTS, I don't think there's really much of a path for her; it's not a showy performance, and even her (would be) Oscar clip doesn't get too loud. Combine in the shitty box office and the fact Searchlight has two other Actresses to campaign for, her chances aren't good. Basically the only reason she even has a shot is because of the inevitable Globe nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm starting to think Judi Dench is in the tier with Chastain/Robbie/Ronan because of how well her movie is doing at the box office. She's definitely ahead of Stone at this point. Having seen BOTS, I don't think there's really much of a path for her; it's not a showy performance, and even her (would be) Oscar clip doesn't get too loud. Combine in the shitty box office and the fact Searchlight has two other Actresses to campaign for, her chances aren't good. Basically the only reason she even has a shot is because of the inevitable Globe nomination. Stone is definitely not happening. She's great in the movie, but it's a mostly "quiet" performance and the movie won't be in the hunt for any nominations otherwise. Dench will be in the running until the morning of nominations. She could very well end up defaulting her way in like Streep did for Stephen Frears' previous movie (Florence Foster Jenkins) last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 If Star Wars was gonna get nominated it was gonna be with The Force Awakens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: spoiler mother! does Star Wars isn't going to be nominated, but it has a much better chance than mother! And it'll certainly have infinitely more non BP noms than mother! (Which will have 0) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 I'll wait and see how good the actual movie is first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XC-TF Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I really don't see Star Wars getting a nomination for BP. If that happens it'll be Episode IX, ala LOTR: Return of the King. I'm wondering if people will remember Get Out, especially with some of the Oscar bait out there like Woody Allen's new film. Even though Get Out should get nominated, it would have to be from a good campaign, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I dont see this SW trilogy getting nominated. It does not have the critical cred as serious piece of film making. Lack of original theme in SW7 and probably SW8(if it takes too much from ESB) will kill the chance for SW9 as well. Plus Sci-fi as a genre is not oscar friendly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BirdMan Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 8 hours ago, XC-TF said: I really don't see Star Wars getting a nomination for BP. If that happens it'll be Episode IX, ala LOTR: Return of the King. I'm wondering if people will remember Get Out, especially with some of the Oscar bait out there like Woody Allen's new film. Even though Get Out should get nominated, it would have to be from a good campaign, right? I don't know man , a horror comedy that is not scary nor funny that turns out to be some sort of fantasy sci fi thing with a very mediocre last 15 minutes SHOULD get nominated ? It was good but not that good tbh 8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said: I dont see this SW trilogy getting nominated. It does not have the critical cred as serious piece of film making. Lack of original theme in SW7 and probably SW8(if it takes too much from ESB) will kill the chance for SW9 as well. Plus Sci-fi as a genre is not oscar friendly. If the academy does nominate a genre movie maybe either War of the planet of the apes or Logan would be the better option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 42 minutes ago, BirdMan said: If the academy does nominate a genre movie maybe either War of the planet of the apes or Logan would be the better option None of them are getting nominated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Anyone else getting the feeling the PTA film is about to get bumped to 2018? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 59 minutes ago, filmlover said: Anyone else getting the feeling the PTA film is about to get bumped to 2018? It's possible since it doesn't even have a name yet and it's October. If it is as weird as his last two movies it will just get the obligatory DDL and screenplay noms, no matter in what award season it will be released on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Joel M said: It's possible since it doesn't even have a name yet and it's October. If it is as weird as his last two movies it will just get the obligatory DDL and screenplay noms, no matter in what award season it will be released on. I remember Foxcatcher got moved like two months before its December 2013 release to 2014 because it wouldn't be finished in time. Chances are high they'll move this to next year so it can get a Cannes premiere or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 If PTA's film isn't coming out this year, I'm super curious if Hugh Jackman can make a resurgence for Logan. Renner's chances are pretty much nil with Harvey's troubles, and I still don't buy Gyllenhaal as a viable contender given how poorly the movie performed at the box office. Ryan Gosling would be a deserving nominee, but that's such a quiet role; I don't think he has much of a shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: If PTA's film isn't coming out this year, I'm super curious if Hugh Jackman can make a resurgence for Logan. Renner's chances are pretty much nil with Harvey's troubles, and I still don't buy Gyllenhaal as a viable contender given how poorly the movie performed at the box office. Ryan Gosling would be a deserving nominee, but that's such a quiet role; I don't think he has much of a shot. I don't think box office matters given how slim the field is. After all, Ryan Gosling got in for a tiny film from the summer that nobody saw 11 years ago, and that was a similarly barren Best Actor year. And like Gosling, Gyllenhaal has been giving consistently strong work in various types of projects over the 12 years since his first nomination in his mid-20s that he has a "it's time to nominate him again" narrative now that he's in his mid-30s. His work in Stronger is also the kind of performance groups like SAG will go nuts for. FWIW he's currently my #3 behind Oldman and Chalamet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 Just now, filmlover said: I don't think box office matters given how slim the field is. After all, Ryan Gosling got in for a tiny film from the summer that nobody saw 11 years ago, and that was a similarly barren Best Actor year. And like Gosling, Gyllenhaal has been giving consistently strong work in various types of projects over the 12 years since his first nomination in his mid-20s that he has a "it's time to nominate him again" narrative now that he's in his mid-30s. His work in Stronger is also the kind of performance groups like SAG will go nuts for. FWIW he's currently my #3 behind Oldman and Chalamet. That's...... optimistic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: That's...... optimistic My other two (since I doubt DDL's film is making it to this year) are Franco and Hanks. I really can't see anyone else factoring into the race at all other than Renner (whose chances are all but dead thanks to the Harvey controversy). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 I still haven't seen Get Out but with the overall amount of talk about it re: Oscars I find it a little surprising that no one around here has namedropped Daniel Kaluuya at all. I thought it was supposed to be really solid work, and if the film proves to be popular at the end of the year, maybe he could sneak in? I seriously want Harry Dean Stanton to be nominated. The chances of it right now are slim to none but c'mon Magnolia at least send out a bunch of screeners all over the place so they don't have an excuse if they snub him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 11, 2017 Share Posted October 11, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said: I still haven't seen Get Out but with the overall amount of talk about it re: Oscars I find it a little surprising that no one around here has namedropped Daniel Kaluuya at all. I thought it was supposed to be really solid work, and if the film proves to be popular at the end of the year, maybe he could sneak in? I seriously want Harry Dean Stanton to be nominated. The chances of it right now are slim to none but c'mon Magnolia at least send out a bunch of screeners all over the place so they don't have an excuse if they snub him. Kaluuya is very good in Get Out but his performance is too low-key/easily overshadowed by others (hello, Allison Williams!) to gain any traction. Movie really has no chance at acting noms, even with every category being relatively barren except Best Actress. Edited October 11, 2017 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
