Best Picture predictions-2017!

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It IS the type of role the Academy likes nominated though; from what reviews say, Jenkins doesn't have a flashy role.

Villain parts only really happen here when they are the clear acting standouts of their movies (see: Bardem, Ledger, Waltz, even Simmons). That is not the case here.

Edited October 26, 2017 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Villain parts only really happen here when they are the clear acting standouts of their movies (see: Bardem, Ledger, Waltz, even Simmons). That is not the case here.

Not really:

 

Tom Hardy

Michael Fassbender

Barkhad Abdi (this one's debatable but the other two definitely weren't considered the standouts of their movies)

Edited October 26, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Not really:

 

Tom Hardy

Michael Fassbender

Barkhad Abdi

Except even those had qualifiers: Hardy basically rode on DiCaprio's coattails (plus he had a banner year overall) while Fassbender was in the Best Picture frontrunner (and missed a nomination two years before). As for Abdi, he was commended for at times overshadowing Hanks ("I'm the captain now."), which is no easy feat. I don't see any of those things applying to Shannon.

[A District 3 Engineer]

Paramount's "for your consideration" site lists:

Downsizing 

Suburbicon

mother! 

An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 

 

 http://www.paramountscreenings.com

[rukaio101]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

It IS the type of role the Academy likes nominated though; from what reviews say, Jenkins doesn't have a flashy role.

Speaking as someone who has actually seen the film in question, I could definitely see Jenkins getting in over Shannon. He does have some pretty standout scenes, acting wise.

[Valonqar]

I hope Clayton Davis informants are on the money that The Post is terrible. It's been positioned as the important movie of the season and AMPAS awards only importance lately. But if it's terrible than things are getting exciting again.

 

That said, doubtful Meryl misses. 

[Ethan Hunt]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Barkhad Abdi (this one's debatable but the other two definitely weren't considered the standouts of their movies)

Abdi was robbed of an oscar

[Cmasterclay]

Warm take: I think Mudbound is still legit. It just won another audience review at a big film festival and has been met with unbelievable response from audiences everywhere it's been shown - and it most certainly has made the rounds. It has a ton of buzz online, and it has better reviews/hype than any Netflix effort before it. I don't know. I think Netflix does hurt it, but I still think it can get in for picture, and that Mitchell, Blige, and even Rees are all contenders in their categories. If it had a normal release, I could see it being a serious contender to win. As it stands, I'm about to move it back in. This isn't Beasts of No Nation or War Machine or something. This has been promoted much better and apparently is much better. 

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

Warm take: I think Mudbound is still legit. It just won another audience review at a big film festival and has been met with unbelievable response from audiences everywhere it's been shown - and it most certainly has made the rounds. It has a ton of buzz online, and it has better reviews/hype than any Netflix effort before it. I don't know. I think Netflix does hurt it, but I still think it can get in for picture, and that Mitchell, Blige, and even Rees are all contenders in their categories. If it had a normal release, I could see it being a serious contender to win. As it stands, I'm about to move it back in. This isn't Beasts of No Nation or War Machine or something. This has been promoted much better and apparently is much better. 

I'm considering it for Adapted Screenplay but nothing else. The Netflix backlash in the Academy is too big right now.

[Cmasterclay]

17 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm considering it for Adapted Screenplay but nothing else. The Netflix backlash in the Academy is too big right now.

Is it? Eh, I don't see it. There's people angry sure but I think they're a vocal minority. Maybe it is among the Producers Guild but the actors will go for it huge (I could see it winning SAG ensemble) and I think writers/tech/directors will be fine too. We will see around NBR time and especially Globe/SAG time - matching closely every year.

 

Also, I don't see it getting nominated one place and ignored everywhere else. Either you completely oppose it and shut it out or it gets treated normally, IMO.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Is it? Eh, I don't see it. There's people angry sure but I think they're a vocal minority. Maybe it is among the Producers Guild but the actors will go for it huge (I could see it winning SAG ensemble) and I think writers/tech/directors will be fine too. We will see around NBR time and especially Globe/SAG time - matching closely every year.

 

Also, I don't see it getting nominated one place and ignored everywhere else. Either you completely oppose it and shut it out or it gets treated normally, IMO.

There's a thread about it on the first page of this section. The anti-Netflix sentiment in the Academy is pretty clear.

Edited October 26, 2017 by filmlover

[Cmasterclay]

Eh, I don't buy it, but we shall see.

My umpteen updated predictions. My last until December when precusors/final reviews drop. Starting to get marginally more clear but still a mess.

 

Picture

1. Three Billbaords

2. Dunkirk

3. Shape of Water

4. Darkest Hour

5. Get Out

6. Call Me By Your Name

7. I, Tonya

8. Lady Bird

9. Mudbound

 

First ones out: Blade Runner or Florida Project

 

Director

1. Nolan

2. Del Toro

3. McDonagh

4. Wright

5. Guadagnino

 

First out: Peele

 

Actor

1. Oldman

2. Gyllenhaal

3. Day-Lewis

4. Chalamet

5. Daniel Kaluuya (My out there on a limb pick of the season - his performance suddenly seems to have alot of buzz and I think the movie cleans up well)

 

First out: Franco or Garfield, I guess. Bad category

 

Actress

1. Robbie

2. Mcdormand

3. Hawkins

4. Dench

5. Ronan

 

First out: Winslet and Streep, both of whom have won for bad movies before

 

Supporting Actor

1. Dafoe

2. Rockwell

3. Hammer

4. Jenkins

5. Mitchell

 

First Out: Stuhlberg, Shannon, and Elba are all legit. 

 

Supporting Actress

1. Janney

2. Metclaf

3. Leo

4. Blige

5. Spencer

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

If The Post really is meh/a dud, here are my new predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. The Shape of Water

3. Dunkirk

4. Call Me by Your Name

5. Darkest Hour

6. Get Out

7. Lady Bird

8. Molly's Game

9. I, Tonya

-------------------------------

10. The Big Sick

11. Blade Runner 2049

12. The Florida Project

13. Phantom Thread

14. The Post

15. The Disaster Artist

 

 

Director:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

4. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

5. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

-------------------------------

6. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour

7. Jordan Peele, Get Out

8. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game

9. Darren Aronofsky, mother!

10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

-------------------------------

6. Kumail Najiani, The Big Sick

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

9. Hugh Jackman, Logan/The Greatest Showman

10. Tom Hanks, The Post 

 

Actress:

 

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

4. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game

5. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

-------------------------------

6. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

7. Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

8. Meryl Streep, The Post

9. Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

4. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

5. Idris Elba, Molly's Game

-------------------------------

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

8. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World

9. Ray Romano, The Big Sick

10. Sebastian Stan, I, Tonya

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!

-------------------------------

6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate

7. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour

8. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

9. Catherine Keener, Get Out

10. Hong Chau, Downsizing

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Three Billboards

2. Get Out

3. The Shape of Water

4. Lady Bird

5. I, Tonya

-------------------------------

6. The Big Sick

7. Darkest Hour

8. Phantom Thread

9. The Post

10. Wonder Wheel

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. Molly's Game

3. The Disaster Artist

4. Blade Runner 2049

5. Logan

-------------------------------

6. Mudbound

7. All the Money in the World

8. Stronger

9. Last Flag Flying

10. The Beguiled

 

I seriously don't get why IFC hasn't scheduled Death of Stalin for this year; it'd be an easy #4 in Adapted Screenplay.

 

 

[Valonqar]

@WrathOfHan I wish I'm that confident in Meryl missing but I don't see it dud or not. She has her spot. She didn't get in that year when she announced that she wasn't going to campaign (some comedy with Baldwin that did well at the boxoffice). 

 

That said, Francis/Sally/Margot are fighting for the win. 

 

 

[filmlover]

Yeah, doubting a Meryl nomination is foolish until it actually happens.

[4815162342]

I have faith in da Berg.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Shape of Water seems like it’ll be another Arrival, where it might be a front runner near the start of the season but ultimately be a bit too strange to go all the way. Should definitely pick up a tech award or two though.

 

Also....I really hope Lil Rel Howery gets even some critics award talk for Best Supporting Actor. He’s a big scene stealer and arguably gets the biggest crowd pleasing moment in a film this year. It’s a massive pipe dream, I know, but if Get Out manages to stay strong, and people see him as one of the best parts of the movie,....a guy can dream!

[Valonqar]

Get Out deserves lots of noms including Director, Actor and Supporting Actor (Supporting Actress too but which one, heh?). It's shoo-in for Picture and Original Script. 

 

I don't recall Arrival having been the front-runner even briefly. It was always LLL with Moonlight taking over the "important movie of the season" status in the wake of Birth of a Nation scandal. 

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Get Out deserves lots of noms including Director, Actor and Supporting Actor (Supporting Actress too but which one, heh?). It's shoo-in for Picture and Original Script. 

 

I don't recall Arrival having been the front-runner even briefly. It was always LLL with Moonlight taking over the "important movie of the season" status in the wake of Birth of a Nation scandal. 

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Agreed! 

 

She has a decent shot at the Globe Comedy nom now that Francis is going Drama.