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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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I'm not quite sure on The Disaster Artist. James Franco, as a performer, is magnificent in his role. But as a director, he's got a lot to learn. I think the directing faults might affect how some voters see the film. But for a lot of voters, it could be clear to see the passion Franco has for the story despite some directorial choices. If this film got a Best Picture nomination, I don't think it would be the first time a film with passable directing achieves such, so maybe it'll happen. We'll see.

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I hope Franco pulls an upset and wins. He has a terrific narrative with that role. Who wouldn't want to see Tommy Wiseau win Best Actor? :D

 

Oh, look, critics Top 10s are pouring in and Get Out is topping the lists! CMBYN stans are having a meltdown on AW. :rofl:

 

 

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Here are my updated predicts, I'm (mostly) basing these off of the precursor model I am making for this awards season

 

Best Picture

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Lady Bird

2.       Get Out

3.       Call Me By Your Name

4.       Dunkirk

Likely In

5.       The Florida Project

6.       The Post

Toss Up

7.       Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

8.       The Shape of Water

9.       Phantom Thread

10.   The Disaster Artist

11.   I, Tonya

On the Fringes

12.   The Big Sick

13.   Mudbound

14.   Good Time

15.   Logan

16.   Wonder Woman

17.   Baby Driver

18.   Downsizing

 

 

Director

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Jordan Peele, Get Out

2.       Sean Baker, The Florida Project

3.       Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Toss Up

4.       Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

5.       Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water

6.       Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

On the Fringes

1.       Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

2.       Steven Spielberg, The Post

 

 

Best Actress

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Likely In

2.       Meryl Streep, The Post

3.       Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

4.       Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

Toss Up

5.       Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

6.       Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

On the Fringes

7.       Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

8.       Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

 

 

Best Actor

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Likely In

2.       James Franco, The Disaster Artist

3.       Tom Hanks, The Post

Toss Up

4.       Daniel Day Lewis, Phantom Thread

5.       Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

6.       Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

7.       Robert Pattinson, Good Time

8.       Henry Dean Stanton, Lucky

On the Fringes

9.       Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger

10.   Jeremy Renner, Wind River

11.   Harris Dickinson, Beach Rats

 

 

Best Supporting Actress

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Likely In

2.       Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

3.       Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Toss Up

4.       Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip

5.       Mary J Blige, Mudbound

6.       Louis Smith, Marjorie Prime

On the Fringes

7.       Melissa Leo, Novitiate

8.       Talliah Lenice Webster, Good Time

 

 

Best Supporting Actor

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Likely In

2.       Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

3.       Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

Toss Up

4.       Mark Rylance, Dunkirk

5.       Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water

6.       Dustin Hoffmann, The Meyerowtiz Stories

On the Fringes

7.       Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name

8.       Bennie Safdie, Good Time

9.       Jason Mitchell, Mudbound

 

 

Adapted Screenplay

Spoiler

 

In

1.       The Disaster Artist

2.       Call Me By Your Name

Likely In

3.       Molly’s Game

Toss Up

4.       Victoria and Abdul

5.       Wonder Woman

6.       Wonderstruck

7.       Mudbound

On the Fringes

8.       Logan

9.       Wonder

10.   Blade Runner 2049

 

 

Original Screenplay

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Phantom Thread

Likely In

2.       Get Out

3.       Lady Bird

Toss Up

4.       Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

5.       The Post

6.       The Florida Project

7.       The Shape of Water

8.       Dunkirk

On the Fringes

9.       The Big Sick

10.   Beatriz At Dinner


 

 

Cinematography

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Dunkirk

2.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

3.       Call Me By Your Name

4.       Three Billboards

5.       Mudbound

6.       The Shape of Water

On the Fringes

7.       Lady Bird

8.       Darkest Hour

9.       The Post

 

 

Editing

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Dunkirk

Toss Up

2.       Three Billboards

3.       Get Out

4.       Call Me By Your Name

5.       The Shape of Water

6.       I, Tonya

7.       Darkest Hour

On the Fringes

8.       War for the Planet of the Apes

9.       Baby Driver

10.   Star Wars: The Last Jedi

11.   Blade Runner 2049

12.   The Post

13.   Good Time

 

 

Animated Film

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Coco

Toss Up

2.       Loving Vincent

3.       Birdboy

4.       The Breadwinner

5.       In This Corner of the World

6.       The LEGO Batman Movie

7.       Cars 3

On the Fringes

8.       Mary and the Witch’s Flower

9.       Ferdinand

10.   The Boss Baby

11.   Despicable Me 3

12.   Captain Underpants

13.   The Girl Without Hands

 

 

Production Design

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Phantom Thread

Toss Up

2.       Get Out

3.       Dunkirk

4.       The Shape of Water

5.       Blade Runner 2049

6.       Downsizing

7.       Beauty and the Beast

On the Fringes

8.       The Greatest Showman

9.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

10.   Darkest Hour

11.   The Post


 

 

Costume Design

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Phantom Thread

2.       Beauty and the Beast

Toss Up

3.       Victoria and Abdul

4.       The Beguiled

5.       Dunkirk

6.       Murder on the Orient Express

7.       The Shape of Water

On the Fringes

8.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9.       Blade Runner 2049

10.   Wonder Woman

 

 

Hair and Makeup

Spoiler

 

Toss Up

1.       I, Tonya

2.       The Shape of Water

3.       Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

4.       IT

5.       Darkest Hour

6.       Beauty and the Beast

7.       Wonder

8.       Logan

 

 

Score

Spoiler

 

Likely In

1.       Dunkirk

2.       The Shape of Water

Toss Up

3.       The Post

4.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5.       Wonder Woman

6.       War for the Planet of the Apes

7.       Wonderstruck

On the Fringes

8.       Phantom Thread

9.       Darkest Hour

10.   Blade Runner 2049

11.   Coco

12.   Three Billboards Outside of Ebbings, Missouri

 

 

Original Song

Spoiler

 

In

1.       “Remember Me” from Coco

Likely In

2.       “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name

3.       “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

Toss Up

4.       “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

5.       “The Promise” from The Promise

6.       “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

7.       “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

8.       “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

9.       “It ain’t fair” from Detroit

On the Fringes

10.   “Never Forget” from Murder on the Orient Express

11.   “Mighty River” from Mudbound

12.   “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me By Your Name

 

 

Sound Editing

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Dunkirk

Likely In

2.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4.       War for the Planet of the Apes

5.       Logan

6.       Darkest Hour

On the Fringes

7.       Baby Driver

8.       Coco

9.       Wonder Woman

10.   The Shape of Water


 

 

Sound Mixing

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Dunkirk

Likely In

2.       Blade Runner 2049

Toss Up

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4.       War for the Planet of the Apes

5.       Baby Driver

6.       Coco

7.       Darkest Hour

8.       Logan

On the Fringes

9.       Beauty and the Beast

10.   The Greatest Showman

11.   Wonder Woman

 

 

VFX

Spoiler

 

In

1.       Blade Runner 2049

Likely In

2.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3.       War for the Planet of the Apes

Toss Up

4.       Dunkirk

5.       The Shape of Water

6.       Wonder Woman

7.       Alien: Covenant

On the Fringes

8.       Logan

9.       Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

10.   Downsizing

11.   Thor: Rangarok

 

 

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On 11/29/2017 at 8:55 AM, filmlover said:

I'm starting to feel like Supporting Actress is gonna be a Laurie Metcalf sweep all the way through the season. 

 

This would be beautiful. Just scrolling through her filmography reveals that she's worked very hard and has had many notable roles. I would be thrilled to see an overdue actress receive recognition. And this comes from a guy that's yet to see Lady Bird!

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It’s dawning on me that there’s a very good comp for The Shape of Water: Her.

 

Both were pretty bizarre love stories with visual flair directed by geek/indie darling directors yet managed to strike great performances and get strong acclaim. I think it will do a bit better for both box office and awards, but there were more similarities than I initially thought.

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Concerning the Golden Globes:

 

Could Baby Driver potentially be admitted into Comedy/Musical? If so, what is the film's potential in those categories? Any chance for Ansel Elgort to surprise everyone and sneak into Best Actor for Comedy/Musical?

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1 hour ago, slambros said:

Concerning the Golden Globes:

 

Could Baby Driver potentially be admitted into Comedy/Musical? If so, what is the film's potential in those categories? Any chance for Ansel Elgort to surprise everyone and sneak into Best Actor for Comedy/Musical?

I think it is going comedy/musical:

 

However, this year has flipped that script. The ugly duckling genre has transformed into a glorious swan with a juicy competition in the works. Front-runners include: “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Battle of the Sexes,” “The Big Sick” and “I, Tonya.” With other potential nominees “Downsizing,” “The Greatest Showman,” “The Disaster Artist,” “Baby Driver” and “Beauty and the Beast,” a vibrant category rises, frequently reflecting America’s cultural diversity.

 

It is a strong year, if we assume Get Out, Lady Bird, Big Sick are in that leave 2 place for I Tonya, Baby Driver, Disaster artist, etc..

 

 

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This year is wild'n out. A week ago, I said Get Out. Then, I started to round towards Call Me By Your Name. Then I started thinking the Post, or Get Out v. The Post like Coolio said. Now, I'm really really thinking Lady Bird takes it home. Feels right. No idea who wins Director at all. And also last week I was saying Oldman/Streep/Rockwell/Janney as acting winners, now going Chalamet/Ronan/Dafoe/Metclaf. This year has my predictions shook.

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A part of me is still feeling Oldman is gonna sweep Best Actor once we get to the televised awards. I'm really hoping not because 1) a potential history-making win with Chalamet and 2) Darkest Hour is the one contender this year I really can't muster up any enthusiasm to run out and see, though I'm sure it's not a bad movie.

 

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17 hours ago, filmlover said:

A part of me is still feeling Oldman is gonna sweep Best Actor once we get to the televised awards. I'm really hoping not because 1) a potential history-making win with Chalamet and 2) Darkest Hour is the one contender this year I really can't muster up any enthusiasm to run out and see, though I'm sure it's not a bad movie.

 

There is another.......

 

Spoiler

giphy.gif

 

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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Oldman isn't going to sweep the televised awards because he and the HFPA hate each other. No nomination at the Globes wouldn't be surprising with how much buzz the movie has lost tbh.

I still get a feeling that older section of Oscar voters are gonna pull through for the film in the end and the movie's gonna show up like:

 

Image result for surprise bitch

  • ...wtf 1
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