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WrathOfHan

Weekend Actuals (Page 29): Split 40M | xXx 20.1M | Hidden Figures 15.7M | Sing 9M | La La Land 8.4M | The Founder 3.4M

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6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Taraji P. Henson's character in the show Empire is named Cookie, and she's mainly called Cookie Monster both as a joke and how much of a boss she is on that show.

 

Man you really have to have knowledge and understanding of all kinds of Pop Culture stuff to really get that reference.

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25 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

A final total of 200M isn't a flop, but I believe it would be more near than far of being one.

 

200 WW against a 85m budget means that the film very likely turns out a small profit when it's all said and done, so certainly not a flop. Given the crazy DOM/OS split that The Last Witch Hunter had (that thing grossed 120m OS) it wouldn't surprise me at all if this goes near 250M either. In fact that's what I'm expecting. 

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6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Man you really have to have knowledge and understanding of all kinds of Pop Culture stuff to really get that reference.

Well, I'm trying to get some sort of job writing about the entertainment industry, so I kinda have to know what's going on. ;)

 

Also, I don't go out much. :sadben:

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1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Thursday was right at 50% of TFA. Friday estimate is 49.3%. Seems reasonable enough to me. Still on track for $540m. 

Not trying to argue or anything, but would you mind posting your projections for the next several WEs for RO? I don't know how it's easily on track for $540m after a $6.5 million weekend. It would need almost $30m more... I'd say $535m is much more likely.

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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

Decided to look at a 15 year timeline to see which franchises repeat. Looked at 2001-2003 and then 2015-now. In the 2001-2003 timeframe we had the following movies which have new installments in the past 2 years or within the next 12 months:

  • Harry Potter
  • LOTR
  • Star Wars
  • Spider-Man
  • Pirates
  • The Mummy
  • Jurassic Park
  • Planet of the Apes
  • The Fast and The Furious
  • The Ring
  • Bridget Jones
  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding
  • Ice Age
  • Bourne
  • Barbershop
  • xXx
  • Finding Nemo
  • X-Men
  • James Bond
  • Tomb Raider
  • Terminator
  • Bad Boys
  • Hulk

More than half of the top 20 grossing movies from those 3 years are the same franchises still being released in theaters 15 years later.

:bourne:

 

People are not paying enough attention to this post. This was freaking 15 years ago!

 

Jesus Christ Hollywood.

 

 

 

Edited by Arlborn
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52 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

 

200 WW against a 85m budget means that the film very likely turns out a small profit when it's all said and done, so certainly not a flop. Given the crazy DOM/OS split that The Last Witch Hunter had (that thing grossed 120m OS) it wouldn't surprise me at all if this goes near 250M either. In fact that's what I'm expecting. 

Costs:

85m(budget) + 
~90M Being Conservative (WW P&A)
= 175M

 

Earnings:
~27.5M (55% of 55M DOM)
~58 (40% of 145M OS)
= 85.5M


85.5M - 175M = 89.5M

It will still would have ~89.5M exposed waiting home video gross, sales of rights to Tv ... but there are also other costs of home video such as marketing. Yes, it should have a small profit, but with 200M WW it would still be very close of giving a loss to the studio.

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1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

Decided to look at a 15 year timeline to see which franchises repeat. Looked at 2001-2003 and then 2015-now. In the 2001-2003 timeframe we had the following movies which have new installments in the past 2 years or within the next 12 months:

  • Harry Potter
  • LOTR
  • Star Wars
  • Spider-Man
  • Pirates
  • The Mummy
  • Jurassic Park
  • Planet of the Apes
  • The Fast and The Furious
  • The Ring
  • Bridget Jones
  • My Big Fat Greek Wedding
  • Ice Age
  • Bourne
  • Barbershop
  • xXx
  • Finding Nemo
  • X-Men
  • James Bond
  • Tomb Raider
  • Terminator
  • Bad Boys
  • Hulk

More than half of the top 20 grossing movies from those 3 years are the same franchises still being released in theaters 15 years later.

You are missing Resident Evil and Underworld on this list.

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19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You are missing Resident Evil and Underworld on this list.

Ocean's Eleven    
Jeepers Creepers    
Star Trek

 

Wow:o 

Edit: Ocean's Eleven and Jeepers Creepers´new installments won't be relesead within the next 12 months, but WOW

Edited by alisson23
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23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

You are missing Resident Evil and Underworld on this list.

 

7 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

Ocean's Eleven    
Jeepers Creepers    
Star Trek

 

Wow:o 

Edit: Ocean's Eleven and Jeepers Creepers´new installments won't be relesead within the next 12 months, but WOW

 

That's more than 40 of the top 60 movies from 15 years ago. Name recognition is everything.

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Universal did successful marketing on Split, they released the trailer in late July. It was popular on social media, and then they started to have TV spots start in early December. Then lots of advertisements on shows like The New Celebrity Apprentice, and some stuff on Comedy Central. Get Out is next, not as big but will make a killing at the box office. Then the next big horrror film won't be until Annabelle 2 in August.

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14 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I hope Split does really good on Saturday et cetera.

It could get a small increase on Saturday, Sundays typically drop. On Saturday, it could do $15-$15.5 million on Saturday. Then on Sunday, do about $8-$8.5 million or so. Which wouldn't be bad for it. But I was expecting Split to do $25-$30 million OW, which this is a little better than what I expected. I hope $40 million could happen though too! 

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Off topic, but I just finished rewatching X-Men: Apocalypse. It might actually be my favorite X-Men movie and it's definitely the best CBM from lat year. It it so damn fun! I want a Dark Pheonix saga! Fox needs to make one where they actually concentrate on it! And I hope Fassbender returns. Magneto might have killed millions of people, but he's still so damn likable.

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1 hour ago, alisson23 said:

Costs:

85m(budget) + 
~90M Being Conservative (WW P&A)
= 175M

 

Earnings:
~27.5M (55% of 55M DOM)
~58 (40% of 145M OS)
= 85.5M


85.5M - 175M = 89.5M

It will still would have ~89.5M exposed waiting home video gross, sales of rights to Tv ... but there are also other costs of home video such as marketing. Yes, it should have a small profit, but with 200M WW it would still be very close of giving a loss to the studio.

 

While home video indeed has costs, otoh TV/streaming rights remain surprisingly profitable - the costs there are practically zero. 85m is actually a very reasonable play for a film that should have a good run OS, which in turn paves the way for decent home and video sales in those markets. I think the film indeed barely breaks even at 200m - which already is far from flopping - and I think it will go a bit above that, which should ensure a modest profit. 50 DOM + The Last Witch Hunter OS already puts the film at 200m, and xXx3 should have more appeal to OS F&F fans than The Last Witch Hunter had. 

 

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