Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[Blankments]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The hell. So what you are saying is that if Lego Batman does not beat the February OW record before Deadpool made it 130M, then it is a disappointment?

 

Perhaps disappointment was the wrong word; missed potential is more like it

 

My predict is only at 82M, so I can definitely see it going under it, but on paper, LEGO Batman is a film that we were discussing having 100M OW potential just a few months ago. Feel like the marketing wasn't as focused as it could've been

Edited February 10, 2017 by Blankments

[cannastop]

Just now, Blankments said:

Perhaps disappointment was the wrong word; missed potential is more like it

 

My predict is only at 82M, so I can definitely see it going under it, but on paper, LEGO Batman is a film that we were discussing having 100M OW potential just a few months ago. Feel like the marketing wasn't as focused as it could've been

Nah, we were just deluding ourselves.

 

Warner Bros has done all it could for Lego Batman. It's going to reach its maximum potential.

[Blankments]

7 minutes ago, Talkie said:

 

See, this is how people here set movies up to be "failures" in their own eyes by overestimating box office potential.  Then some will construct a false narrative around their own over-prediction that they (and others) treat as truth. 

 

I'm not treating anyone else as truth. I kinda have already acknowledged I know I'm being silly about it; it just feels odd to me like 75M is considered "Great!" for it when in my opinion that's merely good at best.

 

5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Maybe on OW, but beating the final DOM total will be difficult.

Oh, I'm definitely talking OW only. Don't see LEGO Batman topping 300M unless it had made like 95-100M on OW

[franfar]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Nah, we were just deluding ourselves.

 

Warner Bros has done all it could for Lego Batman. It's going to reach its maximum potential.

This forum should know better than anyone of a film's potential and yet we keep having unrealistic estimates 

 

Like my club.... 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

We all probably should just wait for some Friday #s (even shitty Deadline ones) before we make too big a judgement on whether the predictions were too high or not.

[Jonwo]

WB isn't going to see $70-80m as a disappointment in the same way they didn't see Fantastic Beasts's OW as a disappointment. 

[Arlborn]

I see there has been a lot of talk about Logan and some folks are wondering how people are expecting it to even go above Apocalypse. Well, here are some reasons and a good club for anyone interested in that:

 

And before any of you get snarky about that first trailer, please remember that this club was made even before the first trailer came out so the reasons for it it don't even include "OMG JOHNNY CASH!!!!111". There are actually a few numbers in there to back my reasoning up.

[babz06]

7 minutes ago, Blankments said:

 

Perhaps disappointment was the wrong word; missed potential is more like it

 

My predict is only at 82M, so I can definitely see it going under it, but on paper, LEGO Batman is a film that we were discussing having 100M OW potential just a few months ago. Feel like the marketing wasn't as focused as it could've been

Who is 'we' ? I thought most people were predicting between 60-70m?

[Cmasterclay]

16 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

maybe i'm an idiot who hasn't actually thrown out a box office prediction in like 7 years but i thought lego batman was gonna drop at like 55 mil this weekend so i think it's looking pretty good.

Oh good, I thought I was the only one. Since the moment it got announced I thought "Yep, spin-off that might lose the novelty of the first." Honestly anything over 60 is kinda overperforming IMO, so I'm impressed. 

[aabattery]

It's no fun if all our expectations are tempered and reasonable.

 

What I'm saying here is keep being you, @Blankments. 

[DAR]

It seems Lego based films cause Blank to freak out 

[Jonwo]

It'll be interesting how Ninjago fares since WAG's last September animated film Storks did okay but not great. I'm thinking $40-45m OW at the moment but $50m wouldn't surprise me. 

 

I am hoping Smallfoot does better business than Storks but it's in a more crowded February compared to Lego Batman and WAG needs a successful film that isn't Lego or based on an existing WB property like Scooby Doo.

 

 

 

 

[DAJK]

Oh yikes I didn't realize what time it was! Early Friday numbers should be coming in within the hour!!!

[Arlborn]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

It'll be interesting how Ninjago fares since WAG's last September animated film Storks did okay but not great. I'm thinking $40-45m OW at the moment but $50m wouldn't surprise me. 

 

I am hoping Smallfoot does better business than Storks but it's in a more crowded February compared to Lego Batman and WAG needs a successful film that isn't Lego or based on an existing WB property like Scooby Doo.

 

 

 

 

You keep saying that same sentence but I do not think they actually do.

[DAR]

Ninjago definitely seems to have less broad appeal 

[That One Girl]

HOLYYYY SHIT.  I WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF ENGLISH CLASS WHEN I CHECKED FOR THE NUMBERS AND WHEN I SAW THEM I ACTUALLY SCREAMED AND EVERYONE JUST FUCKING STARED AT ME.  

[Jonwo]

Just now, Arlborn said:

You keep saying that same sentence but I do not think they actually do.

 

I like the Lego films they've made so far and I even liked Storks but I worry if the original films like Smallfoot don't succeed and things like Ninjago, Scooby Doo etc do better business then WB/WAG might decide to concentrate on Lego and WB IPs and shelve any original animated films.

[Arlborn]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

I like the Lego films they've made so far and I even liked Storks but I worry if the original films like Smallfoot don't succeed and things like Ninjago, Scooby Doo etc do better business then WB/WAG might decide to concentrate on Lego and WB IPs and shelve any original animated films.

I get what you are saying but there are so many ways to play around with LEGO.

[DAJK]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

HOLYYYY SHIT.  I WAS IN THE MIDDLE OF ENGLISH CLASS WHEN I CHECKED FOR THE NUMBERS AND WHEN I SAW THEM I ACTUALLY SCREAMED AND EVERYONE JUST FUCKING STARED AT ME.  

Post a video of that next time  beauty and the beast is only a month away

[dxmatrixdt]

Lego Movie opened to 69 and adjusts to 75M.  Zootopia opened to 75M.  Lego Batman has extra few hundred locations to hit 75.  I predict 75. 

 

The Vow opened to 40 and adjusts to 45.  50 Shades opened to 85 and adjusts to 90.  50% of 90 is 45.  I predict 45 for 50 Shades Darker .  (50 for 50 sounds better though but it is alot of money!)

 

John Wick opened to 14.4.  Twice that is 28.8.  John Wick 2 might beat this?  wow!  reversal of box office sequel failures.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Matrix4You