Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

[franfar]

8 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

Take your expectations and lower them please 

[elcaballero]

8 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I'm sure LEGO and Fifty Shades will have their moments this weekend, but the story right now off those previews is John Wick. I was expecting a million less at the maximum it could make, holy shit

John Wick already has a committed fanbase. It might be slightly frontloaded because of that, but it's still an impressive result.

6 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

We're still in February. Anything near $80m would be almost unprecedented, and would also represent a 16% increase over The Lego Movie.  

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Lego Batman is very likely going above 250m (could very well be above TLM). If you're disappointed in that, I don't know what to say.

[Jonwo]

$70-80m for an animated film even if it's a spin-off is still huge. WAG aren't at WDAS, Pixar or Illumination level yet so the fact they've scored the biggest OW for one of their films is incredible and it's more than what their previous film made in its entire domestic run. 

 

 

[Blankments]

Not talking legs, simply talking comparison point with Zootopia. If it does less than it, WB botched the marketing; LEGO Batman has a lot more going for it.

[CoolioD1]

maybe i'm an idiot who hasn't actually thrown out a box office prediction in like 7 years but i thought lego batman was gonna drop at like 55 mil this weekend so i think it's looking pretty good.

[grim22]

Just now, Blankments said:

Not talking legs, simply talking comparison point with Zootopia. If it does less than it, WB botched the marketing; LEGO Batman has a lot more going for it.

 

The hell. So what you are saying is that if Lego Batman does not beat the February OW record before Deadpool made it 130M, then it is a disappointment?

[babz06]

13 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

Your expectations are weird.

[Talkie]

9 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

 

See, this is how people here set movies up to be "failures" in their own eyes by overestimating box office potential.  Then some will construct a false narrative around their own over-prediction that they (and others) treat as truth. 

[DAR]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

More than 168M?I doubt it.

Yep 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Not talking legs, simply talking comparison point with Zootopia. If it does less than it, WB botched the marketing; LEGO Batman has a lot more going for it.

I don't know about that. Even though he is very popular, Batman may be a little over-saturated at this point, though the type of film LB is is an antidote to that. Zootopia had absolute raves and insane WOM (which helped it even on OW), while LB is probably a notch below. And while The Lego Movie was a big hit, this isn't exactly a direct sequel.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Jayhawk

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, GiantCALBears said:

Weak in terms of XMEN outside of Deadpool is dead right now. The GA is done with this franchise for now (obviously there are plenty of Wolverine diehards that will show up but not much outside of that).

 

It was always a very frontloaded franchise that rely on a fanbases, but X-Men apocalypse made the top 15 of last year, with an impressive 543.9 million worldwide almost 200 million more than is direct predecessor/group of heroes First Class, and a first weekend very similar to Days of Future Past in many market once adjusted for the new exchange rate (a bit bigger even I think overall), if the movie would have been good, it would have made a lot.

 

You could be right (it would not surprise me) but the recent X-men related output did really good numbers:

 

1	Deadpool	Fox	$783.1	$363.1	46.4%	$420.0	53.6%	2016
2	X-Men: Days of Future Past	Fox	$747.9	$233.9	31.3%	$513.9	68.7%	2014
3	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$543.9	$155.4	28.6%	$388.5	71.4%	2016
4	X-Men: The Last Stand	Fox	$459.4	$234.4	51%	$225.0	49%	2006
5	The Wolverine	Fox	$414.8	$132.6	32%	$282.3	68%	2013
6	X2: X-Men United	Fox	$407.7	$214.9	52.7%	$192.8	47.3%	2003
7	X-Men Origins: Wolverine	Fox	$373.1	$179.9	48.2%	$193.2	51.8%	2009
8	X-Men: First Class	Fox	$353.6	$146.4	41.4%	$207.2	58.6%	2011
9	X-Men	Fox	$296.3	$157.3	53.1%	$139.0	46.9%	2000

 

The 3 most recent X-men movie are the 3 that did the most worldwide in absolute number after all, it is more because of how popular supeheroes are and how big the global box office became in general, than the X-Men in particular thought, but those are just 2 big number to stop making them and for Logan to not have a chance to break out and be a big 350+ million worldwide massive success.

Edited February 10, 2017 by Barnack

[cannastop]

17 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Maybe my expectations are weird, but if LEGO Batman does less than 80M, that's a massive disappointment in my eyes. It's two of the biggest brands right now together, with an all-star voice cast, good marketing, and great reviews. Should be able to easily top Zootopia (because of the brand recognition)

Maybe on OW, but beating the final DOM total will be difficult.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I still believe in over 200 mil for Logan!! I also believe The Great Wall and Get Out will overperform.

[aabattery]

This weekend would be a lot more fun if the two big movies I'm interested in seeing were actually out here. 

 

still salty.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

The budget for Logan isn't insane so I think it'll be fine regardless of what it does. I've never been on "it's gonna be huge" train, since to many non-fans, Wolverine probably feels a little played out.

[DAR]

1 hour ago, MrPink said:

I don't think it can top Origins, but over Apocalypse doesn't seem that insane to me

This seems most likely 

[DAR]

I keep confusing the Great Wall and the Wall

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, DAR said:

I keep confusing the Great Wall and the Wall

2017 is the year for walls.