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commonsense88

Monday numbers Logan 7.15

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5 hours ago, stripe said:

 

It's early

 

Tue / Wed numbers will tell us what to expect

 

Not really though.  I think the second weekend drop or even third weekend drop is more indicative.

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3 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

It's an OK drop. Don't want to read too much into legs from this # but it indicates this will likely have standard X-Men legs.

 

Assuming it does drop, how far do you think it will go down?

 

I don't see it going down by 65% like DoFP or Apocalypse.

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41 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Would that be the #1 drop in percentage terms? @CJohn - Simanton preventing you from seeing theater drop records.

Stupid Keith. We need Brad back.

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55 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Not really though.  I think the second weekend drop or even third weekend drop is more indicative.

 

In terms of 10 day grosses, here's the total percentage each X-Men film had earned by that point:

 

Deadpool: 65%

X3: 75%

DoFP: 69%

X2: 69%

Origins: 72%

X1: 63%

Apoc: 75%

First Class: 67%

Wolverine: 71%

 

We can see some comparison points. DoFP had the same general release date as Apocalypse and X3, but it got considerably better word of mouth. Deadpool also had a holiday opening weekend (although not quite to the same degree), and did great.

 

The solo Wolverine films tend to have a bit worse legs than the team films in similar situations. Origins held on worse than X2 (although not quite as bad as I thought, considering it did half its business in 4 days. The Wolverine is a touch below the other later summer openers (X1, and First Class.)

 

If we're assuming Logan is getting good word of mouth, and it seems to be, it's probably going to get a slightly better result, but it's still probably going to be near the 68-70% mark.

 

Roughly estimating that it'll be around 150m after this weekend, which probably puts a final total in the 210-220 range.

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It may not be a lock yet but I'd be surprised if Get Out fails to reach 200M DOM. It's headed for another sub 25% drop this weekend...and there's been nothing about its run so far that would suggest that 200M is unattainable. What an insane run.

Edited by Lumos
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Get Out doing $200m would be the craziest thing to happen. I've been following the box office since 2008, so if it somehow reaches that milestone, then it would be the most surprising run for me.

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16 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Get Out doing $200m would be the craziest thing to happen. I've been following the box office since 2008, so if it somehow reaches that milestone, then it would be the most surprising run for me.

Considering I thought it would be lucky to cross $50m (after the first trailer it seemed like it wouldn't resonate with audiences, I've never been more happy to be wrong) its definitely been the most I've been off in a BO prediction.

Edited by Rman823
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