THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[Momo]

Half of the movies from March would die to put up the numbers that F8 will. Yet, people are still complaining. Not every movie can do Star Wars numbers.

[a2k]

To get to 102 with a 45.8 Friday (Deadline), F8 would need something like

 

10.4 + 35.4 + 32.5 (-8%) + 23.7 (-27%) = 102

That -8% and -27% was -10% and -29% for F7.

For BVS it was -6% and -33.3%. -6% is better than my guess for F8's Sat but then BVS's stronger Sat was compensated by a much bigger -33% Sunday drop.

 

If F8 gets to 102 with a 45.8 Friday, then it has surprised on both Sat and Sun (as opposed to BVS which had a great Sat but a bigger drop on Sun).

Otherwise, either the Friday has to go up or the weekend has to come down by 2-4m.

[JB33]

I think what some people are saying about the F8 numbers is fair, personally. I, too, expected an obvious decrease from the box office explosion of F7, but a more substantial increase over F6. Yes, this is the 8th film in the franchise, but it's been on a clear upward trajectory since 5. Thus, below $100M or around that mark does feel a bit muted considering F6 did close to a $100M OW back in 2013. I think $110M to $120M was a reasonable expectation, given the size and scope and popularity of this franchise.

 

I'm obviously talking about domestic, by the way. Clearly this movie is going to be an overwhelming success overall. Also, I'm not saying it's a failure domestically either! Just trying to point out why it's reasonable to have expected a bigger opening weekend. There is no need to be so black and white here. Just because people are questioning the opening weekend, nobody is whining or saying it flopped or whatever. This is called a discussion.

[narniadis]

While I am not a fan of DavinciCode1....

 

Lets give props to what he is saying because he is right a film released in FEBRUARY is kicking the butts of films released over the last 3 weeks - which doesn't even begin to mention the total gross.

 

So there is a point to his post - however unnecessarily gif filled that it is

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I think what some people are saying about the F8 numbers is fair, personally. I, too, expected an obvious decrease from the box office explosion of F7, but a more substantial increase over F6. Yes, this is the 8th film in the franchise, but it's been on a clear upward trajectory since 5. Thus, below $100M or around that mark does feel a bit muted considering F6 did close to a $100M OW back in 2013. I think $110M to $120M was a reasonable expectation, given the size and scope and popularity of this franchise.

 

I'm obviously talking about domestic, by the way. Clearly this movie is going to be an overwhelming success overall. Also, I'm not saying it's a failure domestically either! Just trying to point out why it's reasonable to have expected a bigger opening weekend. There is no need to be so black and white here. Just because people are questioning the opening weekend, nobody is whining or saying it flopped or whatever. This is called a discussion.

 

Except we have some who have pretty much all but stated that it is a flop - we had one guy yesterday trying to show us how it will either LOSE money for Universal or show a very minuscule profit... craziness! 

 

So those of us griping about the rest have 40+ pages to look back on people moaning and groaning about it being not enough.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

While I am not a fan of DavinciCode1....

 

Lets give props to what he is saying because he is right a film released in FEBRUARY is kicking the butts of films released over the last 3 weeks - which doesn't even begin to mention the total gross.

 

So there is a point to his post - however unnecessarily gif filled that it is

true dat

[Ethan Hunt]

26 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Seeing F8 in a few hours  

Good luck with that. 

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, Momo said:

Half of the movies from March would die to put up the numbers that F8 will. Yet, people are still complaining. Not every movie can do Star Wars numbers.

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

Except we have some who have pretty much all but stated that it is a flop - we had one guy yesterday trying to show us how it will either LOSE money for Universal or show a very minuscule profit... craziness! 

 

So those of us griping about the rest have 40+ pages to look back on people moaning and groaning about it being not enough.

 

Admittedly I haven't read over the entire thread, just the last few pages, so if that's the case then I see what you mean. 

 

This movie is shaping up to look a lot like TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION in terms of the domestic box office: around $100M opening weekend and $240M- $250M total. It's clearly the overseas box office that's going to be fun to watch with this one.

Edited April 15, 2017 by JB33

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

Admittedly I haven't read over the entire thread, just the last few pages, so if that's the case then I see what you mean. 

 

This movie is shaping up to look a lot like TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION in terms of the domestic box office: around $100M opening weekend and $240M- $250M total. It's clearly the overseas box office that's going to be fun to watch with this one.

 

Yeah and that fits with my expectations over the last week or so as I have raised them (maybe a few mil to much from the looks of things.)

 

If Guardians wasn't coming out in 2 weeks I might give it 250 but I doubt at this point it goes much higher than 235

[a2k]

Kong Dom O/U China is going to be close.

Right now it's 167.4 in China and is barely adding much. Probably will end at ~168.

Dom will be around 161.2 with a 2.6 weekend. Could get to 168 with the dollar bump.

Edited April 15, 2017 by a2knet

[Brainbug]

23 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Kong Dom O/U China is going to be close.

Right now it's 167.4 in China and is barely adding much. Probably will end at ~168.

Dom will be around 161.2 with a 2.6 weekend. Could get to 168 with the dollar bump.

 

Sadly it wont surpass BatB OW. I really want to know what would have happend

Edited April 15, 2017 by Brainbug

[Barnack]

Some hyperbole going on right now.

 

No, 9 figure opening are not always impressive, if Avengers 3 part 1 do a 103 million first weekend no one will be impressed, and yes it is possible that a 30% decline for the first weekend (if that happen) is a bit of bigger than expected drop for the studio, at least it is not crazy to talk about it has a possibility.

 

Mockingjay part 2 mentioned before is a really good example, it opened over 100 million for a non-mpaa Studio movie with a small 50 million north america experimental release strategy that the 2 last movie used to boost margin, with not only a much smaller releasing budget that the big studio movies, but also a much smaller production budget, total success crazy to call it a deception ?

 

But that was a 15.7% first weekend drop from part 1, 35% from the series peak and Liongates stock did took a big hit with that release, from 40$ to 34$ the week after it's first weekend (probably not so much because the last Hunger Games drop from the previous but what it did mean for the hole genre that Liongates was really cashing on and is divergent future movies and the others it would have done if the genre would have stayed popular).

 

Now Fast&Furious is a totally different animal, because it is arguably that biggest franchise outside the US right now, and if their is a small disappointment (say 10-15% smaller than wanted domestic opening) we don't know and will not because the giant performance oversea is more than making up for it.

 

Has for the seven being a sure peak because of Walker death, that is not true in at least 16 market were Fast 8 is opening bigger, domestic is different because he was an american actor and the franchise was new in many of those market, but a lot of Seven success had nothing to do with it (same for Dark Knight and Ledger, that movie was a really big deal in market were they didn't care about him, don't even knew who he was, is previous success being mostly big deal in the US only) and a lot to do with Wan giant spectacle.

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by Barnack

[John Marston]

100m with same legs as F7 gives it 240

[Noctis]

That is a stunning OS number for F8. At least it beat DH2 comfortably...unlike JW which opened just $2m higher. 

 

I'm expecting $900m OS. 

[a2k]

41 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Sadly it wont surpass BatB OW. I really want to know what would have happend

hmm...i don't get the significance of that stat. kong's dom will be not more than a couple mil above bvs ow too, and will be behind a few other ows.

[FantasticBeasts]

Some people here are ridiculous.

This would have been an enormous success even without US.

Who the fuck cares for DOM when you will have the biggest OS grosser of the year and by a comfortable margin??

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

hmm...i don't get the significance of that stat. kong's dom will be not more than a couple mil above bvs ow too, and will be behind a few other ows.

 

Tele hinted at something exciting if it would happen.

[Sophie]

Box Office Pro predicted that it would open to $118 million domestically, but it's only going to open to like $102 million, with $432 million overseas. 

 

[Sophie]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Who the fuck cares for DOM