THE THREAD OF THE FURIOUS: Friday #s (DHD, Pg 36) F8 45.5M, BB 6.6M, BATB 5.3M, Smurfs 2.9M, GIS 2.1M

[Webslinger]

The worldwide opening is an enormous success, yes.

 

But you can't sit here and tell me with a straight face that barely cracking $100 million after a $147 million opening two years ago isn't at least a little disappointing. With the goodwill this franchise has built, it should have been able to crack at least $120 million this weekend. Clearing a nine-digit opening is always impressive, but there was certainly a great deal of room for Fate of the Furious to go higher.

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

The worldwide opening is an enormous success, yes.

 

But you can't sit here and tell me with a straight face that barely cracking $100 million after a $147 million opening two years ago isn't at least a little disappointing. With the goodwill this franchise has built, it should have been able to crack at least $120 million this weekend. Clearing a nine-digit opening is always impressive, but there was certainly a great deal of room for Fate of the Furious to go higher.

It's not disappointing one bit. F7 was buoyed by Paul Walker's death and the fact that they made it seem like it was the last film in the franchise. They used Paul Walker's death in a lot of the marketing with all the "The Last Ride" nonsense and then "See You Again" playing in the background. Considering the fact that F7 is the only film in this franchise to open as big as it did, the number for F8 is not a disappointment and anyone who expected an opening within the range of F7 or thinks this is disappointing is being delusional. 

 

F8 is actually going to increase from F6. Which is really good especially since F7 is the anomaly in the franchise 

Edited April 15, 2017 by Nova

[Agafin]

37 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yes, 155 over 3-days is very doable considering it did 85 on Wed and Thu.

With a 155 OS-China 3-day OW and 2.4x multiplier, it could to 155*2.4 + 85 (adding back Wed and Thu) = ~460 OS-China

230 dom (100*2.3x) + 410 China (190*2.1x) + 460 OS-China = 1.1b WW

 

 

I don't think $155m is happening at all. It would need to average $80m between Saturday and Sunday to reach that number which means almost the same as Wed + Thurs + Fri per day. Considering the fact that it's the 8th entry in a franchise (hence front loading) as well as the fact that its first three days at the Intl BO (Wed to Fri) were inflated by Spring Break ( and Friday in particular by Good Friday which is a holiday in several South American and European countries), $105m to to $115m is more likely.

[Eevin]

1 minute ago, Webslinger said:

The worldwide opening is an enormous success, yes.

 

But you can't sit here and tell me with a straight face that barely cracking $100 million after a $147 million opening two years ago isn't at least a little disappointing. With the goodwill this franchise has built, it should have been able to crack at least $120 million this weekend. Clearing a nine-digit opening is always impressive, but there was certainly a great deal of room for Fate of the Furious to go higher.

I absolutely can. Matter of fact, that's what people have been doing this entire time. 

Furious 7 exploded in the way it did largely because of Paul Walker's death. You can argue that the franchise was going to rise anyway (it probably was) but had it not been for the circumstances behind the production it probably would have been something like $100m/$250m instead of $150m/$350m. 

This December, if The Last Jedi "only" opens to $200m, are you going to tell me that it's a disappointing weekend because TFA should have built up enough goodwill for it to go higher?

[Rman823]

4 minutes ago, Webslinger said:

The worldwide opening is an enormous success, yes.

 

But you can't sit here and tell me with a straight face that barely cracking $100 million after a $147 million opening two years ago isn't at least a little disappointing. With the goodwill this franchise has built, it should have been able to crack at least $120 million this weekend. Clearing a nine-digit opening is always impressive, but there was certainly a great deal of room for Fate of the Furious to go higher.

Even if it's disappointing like you said it's still a success. Why undermine that and make it look worse than it really is ?

[FlashMaster659]

First time checking out overseas numbers...

 

http://deadline.com/2017/04/the-fate-of-the-furious-international-box-office-opening-1202069413/

 

WHAT!? WHAT THE FUCK JUST HAPPENED!? 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

First time checking out overseas numbers...

 

http://deadline.com/2017/04/the-fate-of-the-furious-international-box-office-opening-1202069413/

 

WHAT!? WHAT THE FUCK JUST HAPPENED!? 

 

 

The Chinese 

[redfirebird2008]

48 minutes ago, Manchester by the Tree said:

Schools being off ain't the same as adults being off work.

 

Can't speak for rest of the country, but Good Friday is pretty much a national holiday in the southern United States. I'm in Texas and my company's office was closed yesterday. Would guess many other company offices around the state and region were closed as well.

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

I don't think $155m is happening at all. It would need to average $80m between Saturday and Sunday to reach that number which means almost the same as Wed + Thurs + Fri per day. Considering the fact that it's the 8th entry in a franchise (hence front loading) as well as the fact that its first three days at the Intl BO (Wed to Fri) were inflated by Spring Break ( and Friday in particular by Good Friday which is a holiday in several South American and European countries), $105m to to $115m is more likely.

 

Thanks, ok. Using 115 3-day and the same 2.4x (for which I have no basis. Just guessing.),

115*2.4 + 85 (adding back Wed and Thu) = ~360 OS-China

230 dom (100*2.3x) + 410 China (190*2.1x) + 360 OS-China = 1b WW

 

That 360 looks too small considering F7 did an insane 740 OS-China. Maybe I am using a small multiplier but 2.4 on first glance looks healthy enough.

But considering 85 has been burnt off Wed and Thu, the multiplier will be better. So Using 3x,

115*3 + 85 (adding back Wed and Thu) = ~430 OS-China

230 dom (100*2.3x) + 410 China (190*2.1x) + 430 OS-China = 1.07b WW

 

Edit: It did 155 OS-China Fri-Sun 

So will stick to the original calculation,

155*2.4 + 85 (adding back Wed and Thu) = ~460 OS-China

230 dom (100*2.3x) + 410 China (190*2.1x) + 460 OS-China = 1.1b WW

 

Edited April 15, 2017 by a2knet

[John Marston]

Just realized is there any benefit to opening on Good Friday? It's an inflated Friday but Saturday and Sunday are the deflated. Might as well open the week before and take advantage of the better than usual weekdays that week

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Just realized is there any benefit to opening on Good Friday? It's an inflated Friday but Saturday and Sunday are the deflated. Might as well open the week before and take advantage of the better than usual weekdays that week

Won't really make a difference overall.

[a2k]

So the DOM OW is 103.8?

Quote

Universal’s eighth installment in the franchise is on track for a $430.4M overseas opening frame and a $534.2M worldwide bow — both new all-time records.

 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Loving to see these TFA's WW records being broken, would love to see some franchise doing the same DOM, too bad that it is impossible.

[Webslinger]

22 minutes ago, Rman823 said:

Even if it's disappointing like you said it's still a success. Why undermine that and make it look worse than it really is ?

 

Because... that's what analysis is? It's not like I'm saying it bombed/failed/etc; I'm just placing it in the context of its franchise's growth and performance. A domestic drop from Furious 7 was inevitable, but this one is going to fall off about 30% from that film's opening.

 

Nevertheless, it's not like the label applied by one person on the internet "undermines" any of the money Universal is going to make off of it.

Edited April 15, 2017 by Webslinger

[Ethan Hunt]

I mean I expected a tiny bit more than this but I'm not really surprised.

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, elcaballero said:

$400 PTA opening weekend, though. Rock Dog made more in its fourth weekend. Yikes. 

 

Well they can't all be "smashing hits", now can they?

[grim22]

WW OW record is actually not a proper calculation since the previous installment didn't open in China at the same time as domestic, same with TFA. Will be interesting to see if the record actually holds come Monday.

[John Marston]

Yeah I expected a little more but in the end I can't really disappointed as this is just a natural thing that happens when you're pretty much basically making the same movie  again and again 

[fabiopazzo2]

This awful film broke the record , LoL 

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

WW OW record is actually not a proper calculation since the previous installment didn't open in China at the same time as domestic, same with TFA. Will be interesting to see if the record actually holds come Monday.

 

Ah..didn't know that. That does change things. Add TFA's China OW to it's 1st global weekend and it's way far ahead.