Fullbuster Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 Asia will undoubtedly the most interesting to follow, I can see a moderate increase in Europe as well Latin America could surprise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality IMO and then we have deadpool 2... Maybe 900-960M OS but under a billion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Muzdt Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 AIW TLJ BP Tot Average Tot Average Tot Average T-7 17,751 3,550 1,768 295 T-6 20,201 4,040 2,117 353 T-5 22,713 4,543 2,508 418 T-4 25,381 5,076 4,467 745 T-3 7,755 1,293 T-2 9,639 2,410 10,346 1,724 T-1 13,507 3,377 16,386 2,731 T 21,196 5,299 31,136 5,189 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 59 minutes ago, PanaMovie said: I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality IMO and then we have deadpool 2... Maybe 900-960M OS but under a billion Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? I think that's the principal reason but who knows maybe Avengers can do it after all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, PanaMovie said: I think that's the principal reason but who knows maybe Avengers can do it after all I can't see how they miss 1B OS unless DP2 steals all the audience once released. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Valonqar said: I can't see how they miss 1B OS unless DP2 steals all the audience once released. Well, IW needs to beat or get close to F7 & F8’s grosses in China also. Those films made around $385-395M over there. Films that performs much stronger have good chances for over $1B OS, so this will go over Ultron. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Fuck, how does Furious go over 1B OS (twice so far)? China boost only? Yes, it is almost all about China. If you take the top 10 internationally and then subtract the numbers froim China, you end up with this: #1 Avatar 1.823b (was #1 with China) #2 Titanic 1.484b (was #2) #3 TFA 1.007b (was #4) #4 HP7.2 ~900m (was #7) #5 Frozen 827m (was #10) #6 The Avengers 809m (was #9) #7 Jurassic World 791m (was #5) #8 Furios 7 773m (was #3) #9 Age of Ultron 706m (was #8) #10 Fate of the Furious 617m (was #6) The last two actually fall behind quite a few other movies, like Minions (~755m), POTC4 (735m), Skyfall (744m), with quite a few more coming in ahead of F8 but not AoU. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 1 hour ago, PanaMovie said: I think the movie is going to increase everywhere on opening weekend but not on totals...this movie is going to be very frontloaded not matter the quality 🤔 another HP7!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 In France it's really hot and sunny, people love to be outside...if this weather persisits next week then Avengers IW could suffer from it, it's rarely good for movies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 there will be good weather until Wednesday in Europe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: there will be good weather until Wednesday in Europe Indeed, I just watched, that's exactly that where I live lol + rainy weekend. Well, Avengers IW is gonna be lucky if these forecasts become true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, George Parr said: Yes, it is almost all about China. If you take the top 10 internationally and then subtract the numbers froim China, you end up with this: #1 Avatar 1.823b (was #1 with China) #2 Titanic 1.484b (was #2) #3 TFA 1.007b (was #4) #4 HP7.2 ~900m (was #7) #5 Frozen 827m (was #10) #6 The Avengers 809m (was #9) #7 Jurassic World 791m (was #5) #8 Furios 7 773m (was #3) #9 Age of Ultron 706m (was #8) #10 Fate of the Furious 617m (was #6) The last two actually fall behind quite a few other movies, like Minions (~755m), POTC4 (735m), Skyfall (744m), with quite a few more coming in ahead of F8 but not AoU. ROTK did 732 without China. Over Ultron and F8 too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Impossible Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 So that WW opening record is locked right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stewart Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: So that WW opening record is locked right? Possible but a stretch since China's ~$180m opening won't happen till May 11th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: So that WW opening record is locked right? Since China isn't opening on the same weekend, it looks like IW would require an OS opening in the vicinity of $300 million to break the WW opening record (assuming a domestic OW range of $230-250 million). DH2 is the only film to have surpassed that milestone without China ($314 million OS-China OW), with TFA coming pretty close as well ($281 million OS-China OW). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 13 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: So that WW opening record is locked right? Absolutely no without China but still in play! Negative scenario: 250M OS+ 205M Dom= 455M OW My scenario: 275/280M OS+ 210-225M dom= 490/510M OW ULTRA POSITIVE SCENARIO: 310/320M OS+ 240M Dom = 550/560M OW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, KP1025 said: Since China isn't opening on the same weekend, it looks like IW would require an OS opening in the vicinity of $300 million to break the WW opening record (assuming a domestic OW range of $230-250 million). DH2 is the only film to have surpassed that milestone without China ($314 million OS-China OW), with TFA coming pretty close as well ($281 million OS-China OW). Wow ... only HP7 reaches + 300 million without China? And SW7 had a very big opening weekend in many markets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, feasby007 said: Possible but a stretch since China's ~$180m opening won't happen till May 11th Wait what?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted April 21, 2018 Share Posted April 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: Absolutely no without China but still in play! Negative scenario: 250M OS+ 205M Dom= 455M OW My scenario: 275/280M OS+ 210-225M dom= 490/510M OW ULTRA POSITIVE SCENARIO: 310/320M OS+ 240M Dom = 550/560M OW Pretty much my thinking as well. OS less China probably in the neighborhood of TFA, better in some territories and worse in others, ultimately balancing out more or less, plus domestic should push it into the 490-520 range. Outside shot at Fast 8's $542m but I wouldn't bet on it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...