Weekend thread: GOTG2 63 m | Snatched 17.5 mi | King Arthur 14.7 m

[Valonqar]

3 hours ago, picores said:

375m looks in good shape for GV2

 

Until Monday drop. 

 

But yeah, Saturday is the day for all family-oriented movies. Friday isn't. Saturday decides the weekend. 

 

It should also start having bigger Tuesday jumps than last week cause holdovers always do. 

 

@Biggestgeekever

 

Guardians 2 has the highest female appeal of any MCU film. If that allows it to play strongly on Mother's Day, it could get to $65M. 

 

That's great and a jump form GOTG which had the highest female appeal of any MCU movie previously. I think that Ant Man surpassed it (so Ant Man and Wasp will likely increase the appeal too) and now GOTG 2 female appeal increased over both. And that's a great news not just for MD but because female audience tends to give movies longer legs. 

[WrathOfHan]

That GOTG number is perfect for my Survivor.

[PPZVGOS]

Say what you will about the MCU, but it must be seen as the most successful "franchise" in the history of cinema. In the space of less than a decade, they have released 15 movies (with 2 more coming up this year) out of which only one can be seen as a failure (The Incredible Hulk) These are their adjusted domestic grosses (and respective multipliers in brackets) in chronological order:

 

1. Iron Man (2008) - $360.5M (3.23)

2. The Incredible Hulk (2008) - $152.6M (2.69)

3. Iron Man 2 (2010) - $349.3M (2.44)

4. Thor (2011) - $196.2M (2.75)

5. Captain America (2011) $191.4M (2.71)

6. The Avengers (2012) $662M (3.00)

7. Iron Man 3 (2013) $428M (2.35)

8. Thor: The Dark World (2013) - $216M (2.41)

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) - $267.6M (2.73) 

10. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) - $343.1M (3.53)*

11. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) - $472.1M (2.40)

12. Ant-Man (2015) - $185.4M (3.15) 

13. Captain America: Civil War (2016) - $414.5M (2.28)

14. Dr Strange (2016) - $235.7M (2.73)

 

 

Having said that, it has to be stressed that the entire cinematic universe seems very reliant and even dependent on the charisma of Robert Downey Jr./Tony Stark/Iron Man. He is an integral part of all of the Top 6 movies in the franchise. These include, the two Avengers movies (in which he is the main protagonist) the 3 Iron Man movies (which are all exclusively about him) and Civil War in which he is one of the top two main characters. 

 

Only Guardians of the Galaxy has managed to approach the box-office success of the Iron Man movies and now its sequel is again doing the same (even maybe, a bit better) 

 

I think that the next 2-3 offerings in the MCU will try and to achieve mega-success without RDJ, or as in the case of Spiderman: Homecoming, with a little bit of him (clearly, Disney-Marvel, are fully aware of RDJ's centrality to the franchise) Spider-man has historically been Marvel's best known character, Thor: Ragnarok will try and deliver on the GOTG formula through two major superheroes (Thor & Hulk) that have been somewhat short-changed thus far, and then Black Panther, which in a sense offers something different. 

 

Will be interesting to see if Disney-Marvel can pull this off, and solidify their success beyond RDJ/Stark/Iron Man. 

 

 

*Unsurprising that the original GOTG has produced the best multiplies out of any MCU movie thus far. That film was a genuine and pleasant surprise. 

Edited May 14, 2017 by PPZVGOS

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Say what you will about the MCU, but it must be seen as the most successful "franchise" in the history of cinema. In the space of less than a decade, they have released 15 movies (with 2 more coming up this year) out of which only one can be seen as a failure (The Incredible Hulk) These are their adjusted domestic grosses (and respective multipliers in brackets) in chronological order:

 

1. Iron Man (2008) - $360.5M (3.23)

2. The Incredible Hulk (2008) - $152.6M (2.69)

3. Iron Man 2 (2010) - $349.3M (2.44)

4. Thor (2011) - $196.2M (2.75)

5. Captain America (2011) $191.4M (2.71)

6. The Avengers (2012) $662M (3.00)

7. Iron Man 3 (2013) $428M (2.35)

8. Thor: The Dark World (2013) - $216M (2.41)

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) - $267.6M (2.73) 

10. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) - $343.1M (3.53)*

11. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) - $472.1M (2.40)

12. Ant-Man (2015) - $185.4M (3.15) 

13. Captain America: Civil War (2016) - $414.5M (2.28)

14. Dr Strange (2016) - $235.7M (2.73)

 

 

Having said that, it has to be stressed that the entire cinematic universe seems very reliant and even dependent on the charisma of Robert Downey Jr./Tony Stark/Iron Man. He is an integral part of all of the Top 6 movies in the franchise. These include, the two Avengers movies (in which he is the main protagonist) the 3 Iron Man movies (which are all exclusively about him) and Civil War in which he is one of the top two main characters. 

 

Only Guardians of the Galaxy has managed to approach the box-office success of the Iron Man movies and now its sequel is again doing the same (even maybe, a bit better) 

 

I think that the next 2-3 offerings in the MCU will try and to achieve mega-success without RDJ, or as in the case of Spiderman: Homecoming, with a little bit of him (clearly, Disney-Marvel, are fully aware of RDJ's centrality to the franchise) Spider-man has historically been Marvel's best known character, Thor: Ragnarok will try and deliver on the GOTG formula through two major superheroes (Thor & Hulk) that have been somewhat short-changed thus far, and then Black Panther, which in a sense offers something different. 

 

Will be interesting to see if Disney-Marvel can pull this off, and solidify their success beyond RDJ/Stark/Iron Man. 

 

 

*Unsurprising that the original GOTG has produced the best multiplies out of any MCU movie thus far. That film was a genuine and pleasant surprise. 

I think Black Panther has a great chance of doing IM1 numbers domestic.

[Wrath]

17 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Say what you will about the MCU, but it must be seen as the most successful "franchise" in the history of cinema. In the space of less than a decade, they have released 15 movies (with 2 more coming up this year) out of which only one can be seen as a failure (The Incredible Hulk) These are their adjusted domestic grosses (and respective multipliers in brackets) in chronological order:

 

1. Iron Man (2008) - $360.5M (3.23)

2. The Incredible Hulk (2008) - $152.6M (2.69)

3. Iron Man 2 (2010) - $349.3M (2.44)

4. Thor (2011) - $196.2M (2.75)

5. Captain America (2011) $191.4M (2.71)

6. The Avengers (2012) $662M (3.00)

7. Iron Man 3 (2013) $428M (2.35)

8. Thor: The Dark World (2013) - $216M (2.41)

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) - $267.6M (2.73) 

10. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) - $343.1M (3.53)*

11. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) - $472.1M (2.40)

12. Ant-Man (2015) - $185.4M (3.15) 

13. Captain America: Civil War (2016) - $414.5M (2.28)

14. Dr Strange (2016) - $235.7M (2.73)

 

 

Having said that, it has to be stressed that the entire cinematic universe seems very reliant and even dependent on the charisma of Robert Downey Jr./Tony Stark/Iron Man. He is an integral part of all of the Top 6 movies in the franchise. These include, the two Avengers movies (in which he is the main protagonist) the 3 Iron Man movies (which are all exclusively about him) and Civil War in which he is one of the top two main characters. 

 

Only Guardians of the Galaxy has managed to approach the box-office success of the Iron Man movies and now its sequel is again doing the same (even maybe, a bit better) 

 

I think that the next 2-3 offerings in the MCU will try and to achieve mega-success without RDJ, or as in the case of Spiderman: Homecoming, with a little bit of him (clearly, Disney-Marvel, are fully aware of RDJ's centrality to the franchise) Spider-man has historically been Marvel's best known character, Thor: Ragnarok will try and deliver on the GOTG formula through two major superheroes (Thor & Hulk) that have been somewhat short-changed thus far, and then Black Panther, which in a sense offers something different. 

 

Will be interesting to see if Disney-Marvel can pull this off, and solidify their success beyond RDJ/Stark/Iron Man. 

 

 

*Unsurprising that the original GOTG has produced the best multiplies out of any MCU movie thus far. That film was a genuine and pleasant surprise. 

Star Wars still tops it, at least domestically, and Harry Potter may have an argument WW. But MCU could pass them both in another year or two on sheer volume.

[JennaJ]

11 hours ago, Napoleon said:

It's pointless to make predictions for Deadpool 2 before seeing how it will look and how it will be marketed. It can look very interesting, or it can look more of the same. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 in my opinion was a wasted opportunity, it could have opened way higher with a more effective marketing (or a better movie, I can't really judge because I didn't see it).

 

11 hours ago, Tele Came Back said:

 

Huh, and to think you gave it an F in the RTM thread. 

 

11 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I didn't know other members could see that.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2017 by JennaJ

[bruchav]

14 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Say what you will about the MCU, but it must be seen as the most successful "franchise" in the history of cinema. In the space of less than a decade, they have released 15 movies (with 2 more coming up this year) out of which only one can be seen as a failure (The Incredible Hulk) These are their adjusted domestic grosses (and respective multipliers in brackets) in chronological order:

 

1. Iron Man (2008) - $360.5M (3.23)

2. The Incredible Hulk (2008) - $152.6M (2.69)

3. Iron Man 2 (2010) - $349.3M (2.44)

4. Thor (2011) - $196.2M (2.75)

5. Captain America (2011) $191.4M (2.71)

6. The Avengers (2012) $662M (3.00)

7. Iron Man 3 (2013) $428M (2.35)

8. Thor: The Dark World (2013) - $216M (2.41)

9. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) - $267.6M (2.73) 

10. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) - $343.1M (3.53)*

11. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) - $472.1M (2.40)

12. Ant-Man (2015) - $185.4M (3.15) 

13. Captain America: Civil War (2016) - $414.5M (2.28)

14. Dr Strange (2016) - $235.7M (2.73)

 

 

Having said that, it has to be stressed that the entire cinematic universe seems very reliant and even dependent on the charisma of Robert Downey Jr./Tony Stark/Iron Man. He is an integral part of all of the Top 6 movies in the franchise. These include, the two Avengers movies (in which he is the main protagonist) the 3 Iron Man movies (which are all exclusively about him) and Civil War in which he is one of the top two main characters. 

 

Only Guardians of the Galaxy has managed to approach the box-office success of the Iron Man movies and now its sequel is again doing the same (even maybe, a bit better) 

 

I think that the next 2-3 offerings in the MCU will try and to achieve mega-success without RDJ, or as in the case of Spiderman: Homecoming, with a little bit of him (clearly, Disney-Marvel, are fully aware of RDJ's centrality to the franchise) Spider-man has historically been Marvel's best known character, Thor: Ragnarok will try and deliver on the GOTG formula through two major superheroes (Thor & Hulk) that have been somewhat short-changed thus far, and then Black Panther, which in a sense offers something different. 

 

Will be interesting to see if Disney-Marvel can pull this off, and solidify their success beyond RDJ/Stark/Iron Man. 

 

 

*Unsurprising that the original GOTG has produced the best multiplies out of any MCU movie thus far. That film was a genuine and pleasant surprise. 

 

 

It does not make sense to adjust the numbers of these movies to adjusted domestic grosses and then make their multiplier without adjusting the opening weekend numbers as well.

[filmlover]

That's a great increase for Guardians and a good one for Snatched too. Let's see how the latter does today.

 

King Arthur is such a fail that even laughing at it feels mean.

[PPZVGOS]

3 minutes ago, bruchav said:

 

 

It does not make sense to adjust the numbers of these movies to adjusted domestic grosses and then make their multiplier without adjusting the opening weekend numbers as well.

 

Multiplier, needs no adjustment whatsoever. The ratios will be exactly the same whether you use the nominal or adjusted numbers (as long as you don't get the two mixed) There would only be a problem if the US economy had been suffering from galloping inflation, which has definitely not been the case. 

 

10 minutes ago, Wrath said:

Star Wars still tops it, at least domestically, and Harry Potter may have an argument WW. But MCU could pass them both in another year or two on sheer volume.

 

Per movie, of course, and by several orders of magnitude. Also, there are several franchises that have been (on a per-movie basis) far more lucrative than the MCU on the WW scale. What is so uniquely successful about the MCU however, is how they have managed to establish a tremendous amount of characters and storylines that allows for multiple films per year (something that no Star Wars, LOTR, Potter, F&F, Pirates, Transfermers or Bond can ever hope to achieve) and several options on which direction to take. I mean, the MCU can keep introducing new characters (Panther, Captain Marvel, Spidey) or continue with established ones and go for more Guardians (which I think is already the case) or more Iron Man and Captain America movies and so on and so on. My point is that even if they have a misfire here or there, they can still continue with their franchise without much trouble. It still remains to be seen if Warner/DC can follow suit. 

 

18 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think Black Panther has a great chance of doing IM1 numbers domestic.

 

I think that Black Panther will do a bit more than Dr Strange, but no Iron Man numbers. Thor 3 & Spiderman have a better chance at breaking out. 

[MCKillswitch123]

I think that even the big bombs of Summer 2016 like The BFG, Alice 2 and Ben-Hur must be looking at King Arthur's numbers and going "HOW DO YA LIKE ME NOW?!"... and Alice 2, which was the lesser bomb of those, made TOMORROWLAND's box office look good (well, it did do fairly better WW, but DOM... oof), so that's saying something.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

I think that Black Panther will do a bit more than Dr Strange, but no Iron Man numbers. Thor 3 & Spiderman have a better chance at breaking out. 

This is the first major black superhero movie that's also being released in Black History Month, with Marvel's goodwill and has a four day OW. This will be massive.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

I think if any non Avengers/JL CBMs this and next year have a great to do over $350M it's Black Panther and Wonder Woman.

Edited May 14, 2017 by YourMother

[fabiopazzo2]

39 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think Black Panther has a great chance of doing IM1 numbers domestic.

Agree, BP have a chance to pass IM 1 

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I think if any CBMs this and next year have a great to do over $350M it's Black Panther and Wonder Woman.

 

Well, Guardians 2 is very much poised to go over 350M if its trajectory continues as it has been, not to mention that Infinity War is a lock over that mark and Deadpool 2 could almost be categorized as one too though I'm not really sure. But if you're talking about breakout hits, then yeah, I would agree (although I don't think WW is hitting that much unless it's great). Part of me still thinks Wonder Woman has a shot of doing more than Spider-Man: Homecoming, honestly.

Edited May 14, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[YM!]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Well, Guardians 2 is very much poised to go over 350M if its trajectory continues as it has been, not to mention that Infinity War is a lock over that mark and Deadpool 2 could almost be categorized as one too though I'm not really sure. But if you're talking about breakout hits, then yeah, I would agree. Part of me still thinks Wonder Woman has a shot of doing more than Spider-Man: Homecoming, honestly.

I was talking about breakout hits. Black Panther will be massive.

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I think that even the big bombs of Summer 2016 like The BFG, Alice 2 and Ben-Hur must be looking at King Arthur's numbers and going "HOW DO YA LIKE ME NOW?!"... and Alice 2, which was the lesser bomb of those, made TOMORROWLAND's box office look good (well, it did do fairly better WW, but DOM... oof), so that's saying something.

This definitely feels like a cautionary tale for the movie industry about how low a nearly $200M tentpole can go. The number of embarrassing comparisons you could make are limitless. Between this and the failure of the 2004 movie (which somehow looks like a bonafide blockbuster compared to this), I think that, unless Disney decides to give The Sword in the Stone the live-action remake treatment, no one's gonna be tackling this story again for a very long time.

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I was talking about breakout hits. Black Panther will be massive.

 

Well then yes, I agree w/that. Black Panther has a lot working in its favor, and while I want to keep my feet on level ground (and not be disappointed alas Lego Batman), I do recognize that Panther has a lot more riding on its side than Lego Bats ever did.

[The Panda]

350m for Black Panther?  Doctor Strange numbers should be the goal for that, maybe a bit higher.

 

I think Guardians of the Galaxy is the only Marvel movie on this forum that hasn't been vastly overpredicted.

Edited May 14, 2017 by The Panda

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

I think Guardians of the Galaxy is the only Marvel movie on this forum that hasn't been vastly overpredicted.

Edited 2 minutes ago by The Panda

A lot of people lowballed Strange too.

[WrathOfHan]

We haven't talked about The Wall's performance yet; it's debuting with a very weak PTA under 2k. That's an outright disaster considering how short the movie is.

Edited May 14, 2017 by WrathOfHan